ZKH Group Limited (ZKH) Fair Value 2026

ZKH · Internet Retail ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 3 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (25/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, ZKH Group Limited (ZKH) trades at $2.45, versus a $1.65 median fair value across its 3 active models — 32.5% below the current price. QOC: 6.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 25/100 (LOW). 3/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $0.60.

Key Facts

Ticker
ZKH
Price
$2.45
Quality Score
6.1/10
Value Trap Risk
25/100
Models Active
3/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +498.9% upside with 3% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is ZKH Group Limited (ZKH) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, ZKH Group Limited (ZKH) appears overvalued as of : the median of 3 independent fair value estimates is $1.65, 32.5% below the current price of $2.45. Estimates range from $0.60 to $14.67. ZKH scores 6.1/10 on fundamental quality and 25/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. ZKH’s -32.5% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Internet Retail sector median is -20.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy ZKH Group Limited Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ZKH?

3 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($2.45)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $0.60 -75.3%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $14.67 +498.9%
Asset-Based · High Conviction
 $1.65 -32.5%

All Models Active

All 3 models are displayed above.

What Is ZKH's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 3 independent models · $0.60 to $14.67

CirclFi's 3 active models place ZKH Group Limited (ZKH) between $0.60 and $14.67 per share, a spread of 850% of the median. The median of that range — $1.65 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ZKH, against a current price of $2.45.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · CUCE
$0.60median $1.65$14.67
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$0.60
Most bullish modelCUCE$14.67
Model agreement1 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ZKH. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ZKH, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is ZKH Group Limited (ZKH) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on ZKH Group Limited at its current price of $2.45. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $1.65 (-32.5% vs price), with 2 models flagging overvaluation risk. The most optimistic model, CUCE, places fair value at $14.67 (+498.9%), while Bayesian DCF — the most conservative — estimates $0.60 (-75.3%). This +574.2% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about ZKH Group Limited's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About ZKH?

3 of 13 models are currently active for ZKH. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ZKH is $1.65 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $0.60 on its own, implying -75.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ZKH Rank in Internet Retail?

Among 42 Internet Retail stocks, ZKH ranks #24 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.1 indicates above-average quality.

Within the Internet Retail space, ZKH Group Limited competes in an environment where customer acquisition cost (CAC) often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is ZKH a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ZKH a score of 25/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

3 of 13 models are active for ZKH Group Limited. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, ZKH Group Limited's fundamental quality profile registers 6.1/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +574.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ZKH valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ZKH's 3 active models, average confidence is 36%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy ZKH Group Limited Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Internet Retail Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Internet Retail stocks with 13-model coverage

NHTCNatural Health Trends Corp.QOC 6.3MOGUMOGU Inc.QOC 6.0TDUPThredUp Inc.QOC 6.4SBDSSolo Brands, Inc.QOC 5.9REREATRenew Inc.QOC 6.6NEGGNewegg Commerce, Inc.QOC 5.9KPEAKun Peng International Ltd.QOC 4.8CHWYChewy, Inc.QOC 8.9ETSYEtsy, Inc.QOC 7.9PDDPDD Holdings Inc.QOC 9.2LQDTLiquidity Services, Inc.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: NHTC · MOGU · TDUP · SBDS · RERE · NEGG · KPEA · CHWY · ETSY · PDD · LQDT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ZKH?

7 companies across all industries closest to ZKH’s Quality of Company score of 6.1/10.

SIDCompanhia Siderúrgica NacionalQOC 6.1AAWHAscend Wellness Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.1INMBINmune Bio Inc.QOC 6.1VIAVia Transportation, Inc.QOC 6.1LPCNLipocine Inc.QOC 6.1DKIDarkiris Inc.QOC 6.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SID · AAWH · INMB · VIA · LPCN · DKI · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About ZKH Group Limited’s Valuation?

What is ZKH Group Limited's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts ZKH Group Limited (ZKH)'s intrinsic value at $1.65 — the median of 3 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $0.60 to $14.67. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $0.60 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ZKH overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $2.45, 1 of 3 active models suggest ZKH may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 3 fair value estimates is $1.65, 32.5% below the current price of $2.45 — a consensus view that ZKH is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits ZKH Group Limited's business model in Internet Retail.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.1 mean for ZKH?

ZKH Group Limited's QOC of 6.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ZKH?

CirclFi analyzes ZKH with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 3 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ZKH?

Of the 3 models currently active on ZKH, CUCE is the most bullish at $14.67 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $0.60. CirclFi's published fair value for ZKH is the median of that range, $1.65, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 850% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ZKH a value trap in 2026?

ZKH Group Limited's Value Trap score is 25/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, ZKH Group Limited (ZKH) has a median fair value of $1.65 — 32.5% below the current price of $2.45 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ZKH/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ZKH valuation
  • Financial statements: ZKH Group Limited 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001862044) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ZKH as of ; valuations recomputed .