United Bancorp, Inc. (UBCP) Fair Value 2026

UBCP · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (22/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, United Bancorp, Inc. (UBCP) trades at $15.71, versus a $16.00 median fair value across its 6 active models — 1.9% above the current price. QOC: 7.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 22/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
UBCP
Price
$15.71
Quality Score
7.2/10
Value Trap Risk
22/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Earnings Power Value suggests +18.2% upside with 67% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (6/13) may reduce confidence

Is United Bancorp, Inc. (UBCP) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, United Bancorp, Inc. (UBCP) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $16.00, within 1.9% of the current price of $15.71. Estimates range from $13.10 to $24.90. UBCP scores 7.2/10 on fundamental quality and 22/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. UBCP’s +1.9% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Banks - Regional sector median is -22.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy United Bancorp, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give UBCP?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($15.71)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $18.56 +18.2%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $15.74 +0.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $13.48 -14.2%
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What Is UBCP's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $13.10 to $24.90

CirclFi's 6 active models place United Bancorp, Inc. (UBCP) between $13.10 and $24.90 per share, a spread of 74% of the median. The median of that range — $16.00 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for UBCP, against a current price of $15.71.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$13.10median $16.00$24.90
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$13.10
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$24.90
Model agreement2 bullish · 2 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on UBCP, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is United Bancorp, Inc. (UBCP) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, United Bancorp, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $16.00, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $15.71. With a median implied return of +1.9% across a split 2–2 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +75.1% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +58.5% (fair value: $24.90), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -16.6% ($13.10). The spread between these extremes — +75.1% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About UBCP?

6 of 13 models are currently active for UBCP. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for UBCP is $16.00 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does UBCP Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 352 Banks - Regional stocks, UBCP ranks #292 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.2 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Banks - Regional Stocks →

The Banks - Regional sector introduces analytical considerations specific to financial institution businesses. For United Bancorp, Inc., metrics like return on tangible equity provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is UBCP a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns UBCP a score of 22/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for United Bancorp, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, United Bancorp, Inc. scores 7.2 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +75.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every UBCP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across UBCP's 6 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy United Bancorp, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

CULLCullman Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.2HYNEHoyne Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.2SFNCSimmons First National CorporationQOC 7.2DBDeutsche Bank AktiengesellschaftQOC 7.2QNTOQuaint Oak Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.2KRNYKearny Financial Corp.QOC 7.2FCAPFirst Capital, Inc.QOC 8.7FSBCFive Star BancorpQOC 8.3CPBICentral Plains Bancshares, Inc.QOC 7.8STBAS&T Bancorp, Inc.QOC 9.3ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: CULL · HYNE · SFNC · DB · QNTO · KRNY · FCAP · FSBC · CPBI · STBA · ESQ

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to UBCP?

7 companies across all industries closest to UBCP’s Quality of Company score of 7.2/10.

CHCTCommunity Healthcare Trust IncorporatedQOC 7.2NEONNeonode Inc.QOC 7.2BOOMDMC Global Inc.QOC 7.2AGNCAGNC Investment Corp.QOC 7.2AZTAAzenta, Inc.QOC 7.2MOJOEQUATOR Beverage CompanyQOC 7.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CHCT · NEON · BOOM · AGNC · AZTA · MOJO · NVDA

Where Does UBCP Sit in CirclFi's Banks - Regional Rankings?

UBCP is ranked against every other Banks - Regional stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Banks - Regional stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About United Bancorp, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is United Bancorp, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts United Bancorp, Inc. (UBCP)'s intrinsic value at $16.00 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $13.10 to $24.90. The Quality of Company score is 7.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is UBCP overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $15.71, 4 of 6 active models suggest UBCP may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $16.00, within 1.9% of the current price of $15.71 — a consensus view that UBCP is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits United Bancorp, Inc.'s business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.2 mean for UBCP?

United Bancorp, Inc.'s QOC of 7.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on UBCP?

CirclFi analyzes UBCP with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on UBCP?

Of the 6 models currently active on UBCP, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $24.90 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $13.10. CirclFi's published fair value for UBCP is the median of that range, $16.00, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 74% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is UBCP a value trap in 2026?

United Bancorp, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 22/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, United Bancorp, Inc. (UBCP) has a median fair value of $16.00 — within 1.9% of the current price of $15.71 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/UBCP/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this UBCP valuation
  • Financial statements: United Bancorp, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000731653) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for UBCP as of ; valuations recomputed .

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