Commerce.com, Inc. (CMRC) Fair Value 2026

CMRC · Software - Application ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (40/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Commerce.com, Inc. (CMRC) trades at $3.21, versus a $2.64 median fair value across its 5 active models — 17.9% below the current price. QOC: 7.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 40/100 (WARN). 5/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $0.47.

Key Facts

Ticker
CMRC
Price
$3.21
Quality Score
7.3/10
Value Trap Risk
40/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: 5 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Value Trap score of 40 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Commerce.com, Inc. (CMRC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Commerce.com, Inc. (CMRC) appears overvalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $2.64, 17.9% below the current price of $3.21. Estimates range from $0.47 to $5.44. CMRC scores 7.3/10 on fundamental quality and 40/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. CMRC’s -17.9% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Software - Application sector median is -20.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Commerce.com, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CMRC?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($3.21)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $0.47 -85.2%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $2.64 -17.9%
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What Is CMRC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $0.47 to $5.44

CirclFi's 5 active models place Commerce.com, Inc. (CMRC) between $0.47 and $5.44 per share, a spread of 188% of the median. The median of that range — $2.64 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CMRC, against a current price of $3.21.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · FTNN
$0.47median $2.64$5.44
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$0.47
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$5.44
Model agreement1 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CMRC. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CMRC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Commerce.com, Inc. (CMRC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Commerce.com, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $2.64, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $3.21. With 4 out of 5 models flagging downside (-17.9% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: FTNN targets $5.44 (+69.3%), versus Bayesian DCF at $0.47 (-85.2%). This +154.6% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About CMRC?

5 of 13 models are currently active for CMRC. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CMRC is $2.64 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $0.47 on its own, implying -85.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CMRC Rank in Software - Application?

Among 261 Software - Application stocks, CMRC ranks #103 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.3 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Application Stocks →

As a digital enterprise, Commerce.com, Inc. operates in a sector where free cash flow margin is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating CMRC should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is CMRC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CMRC a score of 40/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Commerce.com, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Commerce.com, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.3/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +154.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CMRC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CMRC's 5 active models, average confidence is 34%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Commerce.com, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Application Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Application stocks with 13-model coverage

SNOWSnowflake Inc.QOC 7.3LGCLLucas GC LimitedQOC 7.3SAGTSagtec Global LimitedQOC 7.3AMPLAmplitude, Inc.QOC 7.2INTAIntapp, Inc.QOC 7.3TEAMAtlassian CorporationQOC 7.2NRDYNerdy Inc.QOC 6.0QNTQuantinuum Inc.QOC 3.8PAYXPaychex, Inc.QOC 8.8ADSKAutodesk, Inc.QOC 9.9PTCPTC Inc.QOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: SNOW · LGCL · SAGT · AMPL · INTA · TEAM · NRDY · QNT · PAYX · ADSK · PTC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CMRC?

7 companies across all industries closest to CMRC’s Quality of Company score of 7.3/10.

SRBKSR Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.3VSECVSE CorporationQOC 7.3MUXMcEwen Inc.QOC 7.3CPKChesapeake Utilities CorporationQOC 7.3NCLHNorwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.QOC 7.3CWGLCrimson Wine Group, Ltd.QOC 7.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SRBK · VSEC · MUX · CPK · NCLH · CWGL · NVDA

Where Does CMRC Sit in CirclFi's Software - Application Rankings?

CMRC is ranked against every other Software - Application stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Application stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Commerce.com, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Commerce.com, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Commerce.com, Inc. (CMRC)'s intrinsic value at $2.64 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $0.47 to $5.44. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $0.47 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CMRC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $3.21, 1 of 5 active models suggest CMRC may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $2.64, 17.9% below the current price of $3.21 — a consensus view that CMRC is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Commerce.com, Inc.'s business model in Software - Application.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.3 mean for CMRC?

Commerce.com, Inc.'s QOC of 7.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CMRC?

CirclFi analyzes CMRC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CMRC?

Of the 5 models currently active on CMRC, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $5.44 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $0.47. CirclFi's published fair value for CMRC is the median of that range, $2.64, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 188% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CMRC a value trap in 2026?

Commerce.com, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 40/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Commerce.com, Inc. (CMRC) has a median fair value of $2.64 — 17.9% below the current price of $3.21 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CMRC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CMRC valuation
  • Financial statements: Commerce.com, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001626450) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CMRC as of ; valuations recomputed .

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