Aurora Mobile Limited (JG) Fair Value 2026

JG · Software - Application ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (37/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Aurora Mobile Limited (JG) trades at $6.00, versus a $4.88 median fair value across its 8 active models — 18.7% below the current price. QOC: 7.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 37/100 (LOW). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $11.47.

Key Facts

Ticker
JG
Price
$6.00
Quality Score
7.4/10
Value Trap Risk
37/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: RCMH-DCF suggests +127.9% upside with 44% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (8/13) may reduce confidence

Is Aurora Mobile Limited (JG) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Aurora Mobile Limited (JG) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $4.88, 18.7% below the current price of $6.00. Estimates range from $0.22 to $13.67. JG scores 7.4/10 on fundamental quality and 37/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. JG’s -18.7% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Software - Application sector median is -23.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Aurora Mobile Limited Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give JG?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($6.00)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $11.47 +91.2%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $6.21 +3.5%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $0.25 -95.9%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $13.67 +127.9%
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What Is JG's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $0.22 to $13.67

CirclFi's 8 active models place Aurora Mobile Limited (JG) between $0.22 and $13.67 per share, a spread of 276% of the median. The median of that range — $4.88 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for JG, against a current price of $6.00.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · RCMH-DCF
$0.22median $4.88$13.67
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$0.22
Most bullish modelRCMH-DCF$13.67
Model agreement2 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for JG. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on JG, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Aurora Mobile Limited (JG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Aurora Mobile Limited's intrinsic value is estimated at $4.88, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $6.00. With a median implied return of -18.7% across a split 2–4 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +224.2% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, RCMH-DCF sees the most upside at +127.9% (fair value: $13.67), while Regime Cross is the most conservative at -96.3% ($0.22). The spread between these extremes — +224.2% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About JG?

8 of 13 models are currently active for JG. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for JG is $4.88 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $11.47 on its own, implying +91.2% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does JG Rank in Software - Application?

Among 256 Software - Application stocks, JG ranks #91 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.4 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Application Stocks →

Within the Software - Application space, Aurora Mobile Limited competes in an environment where customer acquisition cost (CAC) often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is JG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns JG a score of 37/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Aurora Mobile Limited. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Aurora Mobile Limited is rated at 7.4/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +224.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every JG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across JG's 8 active models, average confidence is 32%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Aurora Mobile Limited Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Application Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Application stocks with 13-model coverage

MNDYmonday.com Ltd.QOC 7.4IBTAIbotta, Inc.QOC 7.4FROGJFrog Ltd.QOC 7.4AEYEAudioEye, Inc.QOC 7.3PUBMPubMatic, Inc.QOC 7.4SPTSprout Social, Inc.QOC 7.3VIAVia Transportation, Inc.QOC 6.1BLIVBeLive HoldingsQOC 4.1DTDynatrace, Inc.QOC 9.0ADSKAutodesk, Inc.QOC 9.8PTCPTC Inc.QOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: MNDY · IBTA · FROG · AEYE · PUBM · SPT · VIA · BLIV · DT · ADSK · PTC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to JG?

7 companies across all industries closest to JG’s Quality of Company score of 7.4/10.

GDSGDS Holdings LimitedQOC 7.4TWSTTwist Bioscience CorporationQOC 7.4APTAlpha Pro Tech, Ltd.QOC 7.4ASLEAerSale CorporationQOC 7.4KIMKimco Realty CorporationQOC 7.4LENLennar CorporationQOC 7.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: GDS · TWST · APT · ASLE · KIM · LEN · NVDA

Where Does JG Sit in CirclFi's Software - Application Rankings?

JG is ranked against every other Software - Application stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Application stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Aurora Mobile Limited’s Valuation?

What is Aurora Mobile Limited's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Aurora Mobile Limited (JG)'s intrinsic value at $4.88 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $0.22 to $13.67. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $11.47 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is JG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $6.00, 4 of 8 active models suggest JG may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $4.88, 18.7% below the current price of $6.00 — a consensus view that JG is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Aurora Mobile Limited's business model in Software - Application.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.4 mean for JG?

Aurora Mobile Limited's QOC of 7.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on JG?

CirclFi analyzes JG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on JG?

Of the 8 models currently active on JG, RCMH-DCF is the most bullish at $13.67 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $0.22. CirclFi's published fair value for JG is the median of that range, $4.88, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 276% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is JG a value trap in 2026?

Aurora Mobile Limited's Value Trap score is 37/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Aurora Mobile Limited (JG) has a median fair value of $4.88 — 18.7% below the current price of $6.00 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/JG/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this JG valuation
  • Financial statements: Aurora Mobile Limited 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001737339) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for JG as of ; valuations recomputed .

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