The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) Fair Value 2026

SMPL · Food and Kindred Products ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (29/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) trades at $10.21, versus a $17.95 median fair value across its 9 active models — 75.8% above the current price. QOC: 8.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 29/100 (LOW). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $38.05.

Key Facts

Ticker
SMPL
Price
$10.21
Quality Score
8.5/10
Value Trap Risk
29/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +272.7% upside with 73% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (9/13) may reduce confidence

Is The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) appears undervalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $17.95, 75.8% above the current price of $10.21. Estimates range from $6.59 to $38.05. SMPL scores 8.5/10 on fundamental quality and 29/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. SMPL’s +75.8% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy The Simply Good Foods Company Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SMPL?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($10.21)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $38.05 +272.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $17.95 +75.8%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $20.20 +97.8%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $26.67 +161.2%
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What Is SMPL's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $6.59 to $38.05

CirclFi's 9 active models place The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) between $6.59 and $38.05 per share, a spread of 175% of the median. The median of that range — $17.95 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for SMPL, against a current price of $10.21.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Bayesian DCF
$6.59median $17.95$38.05
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$6.59
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$38.05
Model agreement7 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for SMPL. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on SMPL, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, The Simply Good Foods Company's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $17.95. At a current market price of $10.21, 7 of 9 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting a median implied return of +75.8%. Notably, Bayesian DCF sees the most upside at +272.7% (fair value: $38.05), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -35.5% ($6.59). The spread between these extremes — +308.2% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About SMPL?

9 of 13 models are currently active for SMPL. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for SMPL is $17.95 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $38.05 on its own, implying +272.7% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SMPL Rank in Food and Kindred Products?

Among 1 Food and Kindred Products stocks, SMPL ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.5 places SMPL in the top tier.

The Food and Kindred Products sector introduces analytical considerations specific to retail business businesses. For The Simply Good Foods Company, metrics like same-store sales growth (comps) provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is SMPL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SMPL a score of 29/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for The Simply Good Foods Company. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, The Simply Good Foods Company scores 8.5 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +308.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SMPL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SMPL's 9 active models, average confidence is 56%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy The Simply Good Foods Company Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SMPL?

7 companies across all industries closest to SMPL’s Quality of Company score of 8.5/10.

CARTMaplebear Inc.QOC 8.5RAVERave Restaurant Group, Inc.QOC 8.5INSWInternational Seaways, Inc.QOC 8.5RTXRTX CorporationQOC 8.5ONONOn Holding AGQOC 8.5BDCBelden Inc.QOC 8.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CART · RAVE · INSW · RTX · ONON · BDC · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About The Simply Good Foods Company’s Valuation?

What is The Simply Good Foods Company's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL)'s intrinsic value at $17.95 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $6.59 to $38.05. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $38.05 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SMPL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $10.21, 7 of 9 active models suggest SMPL may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $17.95, 75.8% above the current price of $10.21 — a consensus view that SMPL is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits The Simply Good Foods Company's business model in Food and Kindred Products.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.5 mean for SMPL?

The Simply Good Foods Company's QOC of 8.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SMPL?

CirclFi analyzes SMPL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on SMPL?

Of the 9 models currently active on SMPL, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $38.05 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $6.59. CirclFi's published fair value for SMPL is the median of that range, $17.95, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 175% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is SMPL a value trap in 2026?

The Simply Good Foods Company's Value Trap score is 29/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) has a median fair value of $17.95 — 75.8% above the current price of $10.21 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SMPL/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SMPL valuation
  • Financial statements: The Simply Good Foods Company 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001702744) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SMPL as of ; valuations recomputed .

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