What Is The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, The Simply Good Foods Company's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $15.98. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $13.31 (implied upside of +20.0%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 9 of 13 bullish models. Notably, Bayesian DCF sees the most upside at +146.8% (fair value: $32.85), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -94.5% ($0.73). The spread between these extremes — +241.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.
What Do the Models Say About SMPL?
13 of 13 models are currently active for SMPL. Of these, 9 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates SMPL's intrinsic value at $32.85, implying +146.8% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does SMPL Rank in Food and Kindred Products?
Among 22 Food and Kindred Products stocks, SMPL ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.7 indicates above-average quality.
The Food and Kindred Products sector introduces analytical considerations specific to retail business businesses. For The Simply Good Foods Company, metrics like same-store sales growth (comps) provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.
Is SMPL a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SMPL a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
13 of 13 models are active for The Simply Good Foods Company. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, The Simply Good Foods Company scores 7.7 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +241.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every SMPL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across SMPL's 13 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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