Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO) Fair Value 2026

FLO · Packaged Foods ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (7/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO) trades at $6.98, versus a $10.58 median fair value across its 12 active models — 51.6% above the current price. QOC: 8.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 7/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $40.66.

Key Facts

Ticker
FLO
Price
$6.98
Quality Score
8.3/10
Value Trap Risk
7/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +482.5% upside with 71% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Is Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO) appears undervalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $10.58, 51.6% above the current price of $6.98. Estimates range from $3.59 to $40.66. FLO scores 8.3/10 on fundamental quality and 7/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. FLO’s +51.6% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Packaged Foods sector median is -16.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Flowers Foods, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give FLO?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($6.98)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $40.66 +482.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $11.39 +63.1%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $13.79 +97.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $10.79 +54.6%
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What Is FLO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $3.59 to $40.66

CirclFi's 12 active models place Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO) between $3.59 and $40.66 per share, a spread of 350% of the median. The median of that range — $10.58 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for FLO, against a current price of $6.98.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · Bayesian DCF
$3.59median $10.58$40.66
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$3.59
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$40.66
Model agreement8 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for FLO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on FLO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on Flowers Foods, Inc. at $6.98. With an estimated intrinsic value of $10.58 and 8 of 12 models pointing higher, the median implied return is +51.6%. The most optimistic model, Bayesian DCF, places fair value at $40.66 (+482.5%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $3.59 (-48.6%). This +531.1% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Flowers Foods, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About FLO?

12 of 13 models are currently active for FLO. Of these, 9 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for FLO is $10.58 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $40.66 on its own, implying +482.5% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does FLO Rank in Packaged Foods?

Among 81 Packaged Foods stocks, FLO ranks #11 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.3 places FLO in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Packaged Foods Stocks →

As a consumer sector, Flowers Foods, Inc. operates in a sector where customer lifetime value (CLV) is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating FLO should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is FLO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns FLO a score of 7/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Flowers Foods, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Flowers Foods, Inc. is rated at 8.3/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +531.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every FLO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across FLO's 12 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Flowers Foods, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Packaged Foods Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Packaged Foods stocks with 13-model coverage

POSTPost Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.3BRBRBellRing Brands, Inc.QOC 8.3MALGMicroalliance Group Inc.QOC 8.3NATRNature's Sunshine Products, Inc.QOC 8.2CENTCentral Garden & Pet CompanyQOC 8.3FTLFFitLife Brands, Inc.QOC 8.2LSFLaird Superfood, Inc.QOC 6.9RKDAArcadia Biosciences, Inc.QOC 5.4ARRTArtisan Consumer Goods, Inc.QOC 4.1PPCPilgrim's Pride CorporationQOC 9.0JJSFJ&J Snack Foods Corp.QOC 8.9

Read investment analysis: POST · BRBR · MALG · NATR · CENT · FTLF · LSF · RKDA · ARRT · PPC · JJSF

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to FLO?

6 companies across all industries closest to FLO’s Quality of Company score of 8.3/10.

VVXV2X, Inc.QOC 8.3CRCCalifornia Resources CorporationQOC 8.3QRVOQorvo, Inc.QOC 8.3ASICAtegrity Specialty Insurance CoQOC 8.3WABCWestamerica BancorporationQOC 8.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: VVX · CRC · QRVO · ASIC · WABC · NVDA

Where Does FLO Sit in CirclFi's Packaged Foods Rankings?

FLO is ranked against every other Packaged Foods stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Packaged Foods stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Flowers Foods, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Flowers Foods, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO)'s intrinsic value at $10.58 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $3.59 to $40.66. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $40.66 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is FLO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $6.98, 9 of 12 active models suggest FLO may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $10.58, 51.6% above the current price of $6.98 — a consensus view that FLO is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Flowers Foods, Inc.'s business model in Packaged Foods.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.3 mean for FLO?

Flowers Foods, Inc.'s QOC of 8.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on FLO?

CirclFi analyzes FLO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on FLO?

Of the 12 models currently active on FLO, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $40.66 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $3.59. CirclFi's published fair value for FLO is the median of that range, $10.58, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 350% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is FLO a value trap in 2026?

Flowers Foods, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 7/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO) has a median fair value of $10.58 — 51.6% above the current price of $6.98 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/FLO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this FLO valuation
  • Financial statements: Flowers Foods, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001128928) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for FLO as of ; valuations recomputed .

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