Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc. (NATR) Fair Value 2026

NATR · Packaged Foods ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc. (NATR) trades at $14.21, versus a $16.84 median fair value across its 10 active models — 18.5% above the current price. QOC: 8.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $11.67.

Key Facts

Ticker
NATR
Price
$14.21
Quality Score
8.2/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +17.9% upside with 30% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc. (NATR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc. (NATR) appears undervalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $16.84, 18.5% above the current price of $14.21. Estimates range from $7.93 to $25.33. NATR scores 8.2/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. NATR’s +18.5% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Packaged Foods sector median is -16.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NATR?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($14.21)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $11.67 -17.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $12.82 -9.8%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $16.75 +17.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $11.18 -21.3%
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What Is NATR's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $7.93 to $25.33

CirclFi's 10 active models place Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc. (NATR) between $7.93 and $25.33 per share, a spread of 103% of the median. The median of that range — $16.84 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NATR, against a current price of $14.21.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · RCMH-DCF
$7.93median $16.84$25.33
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$7.93
Most bullish modelRCMH-DCF$25.33
Model agreement6 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for NATR. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NATR, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc. (NATR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc. at $14.21. With an estimated intrinsic value of $16.84 and 6 of 10 models pointing higher, the median implied return is +18.5%. The most optimistic model, RCMH-DCF, places fair value at $25.33 (+78.2%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $7.93 (-44.2%). This +122.4% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About NATR?

10 of 13 models are currently active for NATR. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for NATR is $16.84 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $11.67 on its own, implying -17.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NATR Rank in Packaged Foods?

Among 84 Packaged Foods stocks, NATR ranks #14 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.2 places NATR in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Packaged Foods Stocks →

Within the Packaged Foods space, Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc. competes in an environment where store traffic trends often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is NATR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NATR a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc. is rated at 8.2/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +122.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NATR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NATR's 10 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Packaged Foods Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Packaged Foods stocks with 13-model coverage

BRBRBellRing Brands, Inc.QOC 8.3FTLFFitLife Brands, Inc.QOC 8.2FLOFlowers Foods, Inc.QOC 8.3MKCMcCormick & Company, IncorporatedQOC 8.0POSTPost Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.3SFDSmithfield Foods, Inc.QOC 7.9UTZUtz Brands, Inc.QOC 6.4COOTAustralian Oilseeds Holdings LimitedQOC 5.4GLUCGlucose Health, Inc.QOC 3.7PPCPilgrim's Pride CorporationQOC 9.0JJSFJ&J Snack Foods Corp.QOC 8.9

Read investment analysis: BRBR · FTLF · FLO · MKC · POST · SFD · UTZ · COOT · GLUC · PPC · JJSF

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NATR?

7 companies across all industries closest to NATR’s Quality of Company score of 8.2/10.

CNXCNX Resources CorporationQOC 8.2FMAOFarmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.2FBKFB Financial CorporationQOC 8.2ANDEThe Andersons, Inc.QOC 8.2IFSIntercorp Financial Services Inc.QOC 8.2SFMSprouts Farmers Market, Inc.QOC 8.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CNX · FMAO · FBK · ANDE · IFS · SFM · NVDA

Where Does NATR Sit in CirclFi's Packaged Foods Rankings?

NATR is ranked against every other Packaged Foods stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Packaged Foods stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc. (NATR)'s intrinsic value at $16.84 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $7.93 to $25.33. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $11.67 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NATR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $14.21, 6 of 10 active models suggest NATR may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $16.84, 18.5% above the current price of $14.21 — a consensus view that NATR is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc.'s business model in Packaged Foods.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.2 mean for NATR?

Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc.'s QOC of 8.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NATR?

CirclFi analyzes NATR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NATR?

Of the 10 models currently active on NATR, RCMH-DCF is the most bullish at $25.33 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $7.93. CirclFi's published fair value for NATR is the median of that range, $16.84, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 103% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NATR a value trap in 2026?

Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc. (NATR) has a median fair value of $16.84 — 18.5% above the current price of $14.21 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NATR/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NATR valuation
  • Financial statements: Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000275053) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NATR as of ; valuations recomputed .

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