Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) Fair Value 2026

CAG · Packaged Foods ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) trades at $16.02, versus a $27.26 median fair value across its 7 active models — 70.2% above the current price. QOC: 6.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 7/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $20.72.

Key Facts

Ticker
CAG
Price
$16.02
Quality Score
6.4/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: Earnings Power Value suggests +144.8% upside with 85% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (7/13) may reduce confidence

Is Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) appears undervalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $27.26, 70.2% above the current price of $16.02. Estimates range from $20.72 to $44.43. CAG scores 6.4/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. CAG’s +70.2% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Packaged Foods sector median is -16.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Conagra Brands, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CAG?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($16.02)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $20.72 +29.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $39.22 +144.8%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $30.59 +90.9%
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What Is CAG's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $20.72 to $44.43

CirclFi's 7 active models place Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) between $20.72 and $44.43 per share, a spread of 87% of the median. The median of that range — $27.26 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CAG, against a current price of $16.02.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · RCMH-DCF
$20.72median $27.26$44.43
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$20.72
Most bullish modelRCMH-DCF$44.43
Model agreement7 bullish · 0 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CAG, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Conagra Brands, Inc. is potentially undervalued at its current price of $16.02. Based on our 13-model framework, Conagra Brands, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $27.26 — representing +70.2% implied upside — with 7 out of 7 active models confirming this thesis. Model dispersion is worth noting: RCMH-DCF targets $44.43 (+177.3%), versus Bayesian DCF at $20.72 (+29.3%). This +148.0% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About CAG?

7 of 13 models are currently active for CAG. All 7 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for CAG is $27.26 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $20.72 on its own, implying +29.3% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CAG Rank in Packaged Foods?

Among 81 Packaged Foods stocks, CAG ranks #35 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.4 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Packaged Foods Stocks →

As a consumer-facing company, Conagra Brands, Inc. operates in a sector where brand equity index is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating CAG should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is CAG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CAG a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for Conagra Brands, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Conagra Brands, Inc. is rated at 6.4/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +148.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CAG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CAG's 7 active models, average confidence is 52%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Conagra Brands, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Packaged Foods Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Packaged Foods stocks with 13-model coverage

BRIDBridgford Foods CorporationQOC 6.4SJMThe J. M. Smucker CompanyQOC 6.4UTZUtz Brands, Inc.QOC 6.4NCRANocera, Inc.QOC 6.3NAIINatural Alternatives International, Inc.QOC 6.5BGSB&G Foods, Inc.QOC 6.3HRGNHarvard Apparatus Regenerative Technology Inc.QOC 5.3BSFCBlue Star Foods Corp.QOC 3.3FTLFFitLife Brands, Inc.QOC 8.2PPCPilgrim's Pride CorporationQOC 9.0JJSFJ&J Snack Foods Corp.QOC 8.9

Read investment analysis: BRID · SJM · UTZ · NCRA · NAII · BGS · HRGN · BSFC · FTLF · PPC · JJSF

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CAG?

6 companies across all industries closest to CAG’s Quality of Company score of 6.4/10.

GBRNew Concept Energy, Inc.QOC 6.4ASPNAspen Aerogels, Inc.QOC 6.4LMNRLimoneira CompanyQOC 6.4ULHUniversal Logistics Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.4ASYSAmtech Systems, Inc.QOC 6.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: GBR · ASPN · LMNR · ULH · ASYS · NVDA

Where Does CAG Sit in CirclFi's Packaged Foods Rankings?

CAG is ranked against every other Packaged Foods stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Packaged Foods stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Conagra Brands, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Conagra Brands, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG)'s intrinsic value at $27.26 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $20.72 to $44.43. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $20.72 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CAG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $16.02, 7 of 7 active models suggest CAG may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $27.26, 70.2% above the current price of $16.02 — a consensus view that CAG is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Conagra Brands, Inc.'s business model in Packaged Foods.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.4 mean for CAG?

Conagra Brands, Inc.'s QOC of 6.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CAG?

CirclFi analyzes CAG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CAG?

Of the 7 models currently active on CAG, RCMH-DCF is the most bullish at $44.43 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $20.72. CirclFi's published fair value for CAG is the median of that range, $27.26, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 87% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CAG a value trap in 2026?

Conagra Brands, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) has a median fair value of $27.26 — 70.2% above the current price of $16.02 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CAG/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CAG valuation
  • Financial statements: Conagra Brands, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000023217) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CAG as of ; valuations recomputed .

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