Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc (TMO) Fair Value 2026

TMO · Measuring & Controlling Devices, NEC ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (8/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc (TMO) trades at $528.54, approximately 79% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $295.22. QOC: 8.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 8/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
TMO
Price
$528.54
Quality Score
8.7/10
Value Trap Risk
8/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.7/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($528.54)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$295.22 -44.1%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$94.98 -82.0%
CUCE Ensemble
Medium Conviction
$269.80 -49.0%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$397.21 -24.8%

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What Is Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc (TMO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc's intrinsic value is estimated at $293.81. Trading at its current price of $528.54, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 11 of 12 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -44.4%. The most optimistic model, PWERM, places fair value at $524.30 (-0.8%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $90.40 (-82.9%). This +82.1% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About TMO?

12 of 13 models are currently active for TMO. All 12 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. The Bayesian DCF estimates TMO's intrinsic value at $295.22, implying -44.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TMO Rank in Measuring & Controlling Devices, NEC?

Among 10 Measuring & Controlling Devices, NEC stocks, TMO ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.7 places TMO in the top tier.

Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is TMO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TMO a score of 8/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc scores 8.7 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +82.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TMO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TMO's 12 active models, average confidence is 49%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Measuring & Controlling Devices, NEC Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

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Frequently Asked Questions About Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc

What is Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc (TMO) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $295.22. The Quality of Company score is 8.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TMO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $528.54, 0 of 12 active models suggest TMO may be undervalued, while 12 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc's business model in Measuring & Controlling Devices, NEC.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.7 mean for TMO?

Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc's QOC of 8.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TMO?

CirclFi analyzes TMO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is TMO a value trap in 2026?

Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc's Value Trap score is 8/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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