Aflac Incorporated (AFL) Fair Value 2026

AFL · Insurance - Life ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (16/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Aflac Incorporated (AFL) trades at $116.52, versus a $124.60 median fair value across its 6 active models — 6.9% above the current price. QOC: 7.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 16/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AFL
Price
$116.52
Quality Score
7.8/10
Value Trap Risk
16/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Markov DDM suggests +268.2% upside with 57% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (6/13) may reduce confidence

Is Aflac Incorporated (AFL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Aflac Incorporated (AFL) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $124.60, within 6.9% of the current price of $116.52. Estimates range from $63.61 to $428.98. AFL scores 7.8/10 on fundamental quality and 16/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. AFL’s +6.9% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Insurance - Life sector median is +10.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Aflac Incorporated Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AFL?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($116.52)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $114.75 -1.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $134.45 +15.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $428.98 +268.2%
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What Is AFL's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $63.61 to $428.98

CirclFi's 6 active models place Aflac Incorporated (AFL) between $63.61 and $428.98 per share, a spread of 293% of the median. The median of that range — $124.60 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for AFL, against a current price of $116.52.

Low · FTNNHigh · Markov DDM
$63.61median $124.60$428.98
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelFTNN Topology$63.61
Most bullish modelMarkov DDM$428.98
Model agreement3 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for AFL. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on AFL, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Aflac Incorporated (AFL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Aflac Incorporated's intrinsic value is estimated at $124.60, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $116.52. With a median implied return of +6.9% across a split 3–2 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +313.6% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, Markov DDM sees the most upside at +268.2% (fair value: $428.98), while FTNN is the most conservative at -45.4% ($63.61). The spread between these extremes — +313.6% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About AFL?

6 of 13 models are currently active for AFL. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for AFL is $124.60 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AFL Rank in Insurance - Life?

Among 17 Insurance - Life stocks, AFL ranks #9 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.8 indicates above-average quality.

Within the Insurance - Life space, Aflac Incorporated competes in an environment where combined ratio often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is AFL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AFL a score of 16/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Aflac Incorporated. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Aflac Incorporated's fundamental quality profile registers 7.8/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +313.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AFL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AFL's 6 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Aflac Incorporated Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Insurance - Life Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Insurance - Life stocks with 13-model coverage

MFCManulife Financial CorporationQOC 7.8BHFBrighthouse Financial, Inc.QOC 7.7METMetLife, Inc.QOC 7.8PRUPrudential Financial, Inc.QOC 7.6JXNJackson Financial Inc.QOC 7.8LNCLincoln National CorporationQOC 7.5CNOCNO Financial Group, Inc.QOC 7.3PUKPrudential plcQOC 2.7UTGNUTG, Inc.QOC 8.0PRIPrimerica, Inc.QOC 9.2GLGlobe Life Inc.QOC 8.6

Read investment analysis: MFC · BHF · MET · PRU · JXN · LNC · CNO · PUK · UTGN · PRI · GL

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AFL?

7 companies across all industries closest to AFL’s Quality of Company score of 7.8/10.

TMOThermo Fisher Scientific Inc.QOC 7.8PEBKPeoples Bancorp of North Carolina, Inc.QOC 7.8NKSHNational Bankshares, Inc.QOC 7.8NOGNorthern Oil and Gas, Inc.QOC 7.8EXRExtra Space Storage Inc.QOC 7.8FMBMF & M Bank Corp.QOC 7.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: TMO · PEBK · NKSH · NOG · EXR · FMBM · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Aflac Incorporated’s Valuation?

What is Aflac Incorporated's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Aflac Incorporated (AFL)'s intrinsic value at $124.60 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $63.61 to $428.98. The Quality of Company score is 7.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AFL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $116.52, 3 of 6 active models suggest AFL may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $124.60, within 6.9% of the current price of $116.52 — a consensus view that AFL is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Aflac Incorporated's business model in Insurance - Life.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.8 mean for AFL?

Aflac Incorporated's QOC of 7.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AFL?

CirclFi analyzes AFL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on AFL?

Of the 6 models currently active on AFL, Markov DDM is the most bullish at $428.98 per share, and FTNN Topology is the most bearish at $63.61. CirclFi's published fair value for AFL is the median of that range, $124.60, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 293% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is AFL a value trap in 2026?

Aflac Incorporated's Value Trap score is 16/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Aflac Incorporated (AFL) has a median fair value of $124.60 — within 6.9% of the current price of $116.52 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AFL/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AFL valuation
  • Financial statements: Aflac Incorporated 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000004977) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for AFL as of ; valuations recomputed .

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