Upbound Group, Inc. (UPBD) Fair Value 2026

UPBD · Services-Equipment Rental & Leasing, NEC ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (17/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Upbound Group, Inc. (UPBD) trades at $21.15, approximately 69% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $67.68. QOC: 7.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 17/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
UPBD
Price
$21.15
Quality Score
7.4/10
Value Trap Risk
17/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +220.0% upside with 61% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($21.15)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $67.68 +220.0%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $21.17 +0.1%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $34.93 +65.1%
First Chicago
High Conviction
 $23.24 +9.9%

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What Is Upbound Group, Inc. (UPBD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Upbound Group, Inc. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $21.15. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $23.28 (+10.1% average upside), masking a wide model spread between the 6 bullish models and 5 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: Bayesian DCF targets $67.68 (+220.0%), versus Sentiment SOTP at $3.16 (-85.0%). This +305.0% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About UPBD?

12 of 13 models are currently active for UPBD. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates UPBD's intrinsic value at $67.68, implying +220.0% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does UPBD Rank in Services-Equipment Rental & Leasing, NEC?

Among 9 Services-Equipment Rental & Leasing, NEC stocks, UPBD ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.4 indicates above-average quality.

Upbound Group, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is UPBD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns UPBD a score of 17/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Upbound Group, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Upbound Group, Inc. is rated at 7.4/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +305.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every UPBD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across UPBD's 12 active models, average confidence is 39%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Upbound Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Services-Equipment Rental & Leasing, NEC Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Services-Equipment Rental & Leasing, NEC stocks with 13-model coverage

MGRCMcGrath RentCorpQOC 9.0PRGPROG Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.7SUNBSunbelt Rentals Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.8CTOSCustom Truck One Source, Inc.QOC 6.9URIUnited Rentals, Inc.QOC 6.8EQPTEquipmentShare.com IncQOC 6.5KPLTKatapult Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.1EHGOEshallgo Inc.QOC 2.7

Read investment analysis: MGRC · PRG · SUNB · CTOS · URI

Frequently Asked Questions About Upbound Group, Inc.

What is Upbound Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Upbound Group, Inc. (UPBD) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $67.68. The Quality of Company score is 7.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is UPBD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $21.15, 7 of 12 active models suggest UPBD may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Upbound Group, Inc.'s business model in Services-Equipment Rental & Leasing, NEC.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.4 mean for UPBD?

Upbound Group, Inc.'s QOC of 7.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on UPBD?

CirclFi analyzes UPBD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is UPBD a value trap in 2026?

Upbound Group, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 17/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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