Upbound Group, Inc. (UPBD) Fair Value 2026

UPBD · Software - Application ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (25/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Upbound Group, Inc. (UPBD) trades at $19.29, versus a $26.17 median fair value across its 12 active models — 35.7% above the current price. QOC: 7.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 25/100 (LOW). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $23.49.

Key Facts

Ticker
UPBD
Price
$19.29
Quality Score
7.0/10
Value Trap Risk
25/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +482.5% upside with 56% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Is Upbound Group, Inc. (UPBD) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Upbound Group, Inc. (UPBD) appears undervalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $26.17, 35.7% above the current price of $19.29. Estimates range from $4.60 to $112.36. UPBD scores 7.0/10 on fundamental quality and 25/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. UPBD’s +35.7% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Software - Application sector median is -23.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Upbound Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give UPBD?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($19.29)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $23.49 +21.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $7.04 -63.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $28.50 +47.7%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $112.36 +482.5%
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What Is UPBD's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $4.60 to $112.36

CirclFi's 12 active models place Upbound Group, Inc. (UPBD) between $4.60 and $112.36 per share, a spread of 412% of the median. The median of that range — $26.17 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for UPBD, against a current price of $19.29.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · First Chicago
$4.60median $26.17$112.36
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$4.60
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$112.36
Model agreement8 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for UPBD. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on UPBD, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Upbound Group, Inc. (UPBD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Upbound Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $26.17, suggesting a +35.7% median upside from the current price of $19.29. While 8 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 4 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $112.36 (+482.5%), versus ML-RIV at $4.60 (-76.2%). This +558.6% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About UPBD?

12 of 13 models are currently active for UPBD. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for UPBD is $26.17 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $23.49 on its own, implying +21.7% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does UPBD Rank in Software - Application?

Among 256 Software - Application stocks, UPBD ranks #114 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.0 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Application Stocks →

Within the Software - Application space, Upbound Group, Inc. competes in an environment where gross margin profile often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is UPBD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns UPBD a score of 25/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Upbound Group, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Upbound Group, Inc. is rated at 7.0/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +558.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every UPBD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across UPBD's 12 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Upbound Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Application Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Application stocks with 13-model coverage

HKDAMTD Digital Inc.QOC 7.0KVYOKlaviyo, Inc.QOC 6.9UUnity Software Inc.QOC 7.0AWREAware, Inc.QOC 6.9FSLYFastly, Inc.QOC 7.0SMWBSimilarweb Ltd.QOC 6.9SBIGSpringBig Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.4MNDOMIND C.T.I. LtdQOC 2.9RSSSResearch Solutions, Inc.QOC 8.5ADSKAutodesk, Inc.QOC 9.8PTCPTC Inc.QOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: HKD · KVYO · U · AWRE · FSLY · SMWB · SBIG · MNDO · RSSS · ADSK · PTC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to UPBD?

7 companies across all industries closest to UPBD’s Quality of Company score of 7.0/10.

ADAGAdagene Inc.QOC 7.0GWRSGlobal Water Resources, Inc.QOC 7.0DCODucommun IncorporatedQOC 7.0AMHAmerican Homes 4 RentQOC 7.0PRTAProthena Corporation plcQOC 7.0CBATCBAK Energy Technology LimitedQOC 6.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ADAG · GWRS · DCO · AMH · PRTA · CBAT · NVDA

Where Does UPBD Sit in CirclFi's Software - Application Rankings?

UPBD is ranked against every other Software - Application stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Application stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Upbound Group, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Upbound Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Upbound Group, Inc. (UPBD)'s intrinsic value at $26.17 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $4.60 to $112.36. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $23.49 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is UPBD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $19.29, 8 of 12 active models suggest UPBD may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $26.17, 35.7% above the current price of $19.29 — a consensus view that UPBD is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Upbound Group, Inc.'s business model in Software - Application.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.0 mean for UPBD?

Upbound Group, Inc.'s QOC of 7.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on UPBD?

CirclFi analyzes UPBD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on UPBD?

Of the 12 models currently active on UPBD, First Chicago is the most bullish at $112.36 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $4.60. CirclFi's published fair value for UPBD is the median of that range, $26.17, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 412% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is UPBD a value trap in 2026?

Upbound Group, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 25/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Upbound Group, Inc. (UPBD) has a median fair value of $26.17 — 35.7% above the current price of $19.29 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/UPBD/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this UPBD valuation
  • Financial statements: Upbound Group, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000933036) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for UPBD as of ; valuations recomputed .

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