AMTD Digital Inc. (HKD) Fair Value 2026

HKD · Software - Application ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (36/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, AMTD Digital Inc. (HKD) trades at $1.70, versus a $7.02 median fair value across its 2 active models — 313.2% above the current price. QOC: 7.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 36/100 (LOW). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
HKD
Price
$1.70
Quality Score
7.0/10
Value Trap Risk
36/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: FTNN Topology suggests +338.7% upside with 5% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (2/13) may reduce confidence

Is AMTD Digital Inc. (HKD) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, AMTD Digital Inc. (HKD) appears undervalued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $7.02, 313.2% above the current price of $1.70. Estimates range from $6.59 to $7.46. HKD scores 7.0/10 on fundamental quality and 36/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. HKD’s +313.2% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Software - Application sector median is -25.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy AMTD Digital Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HKD?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($1.70)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $6.59 +287.7%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $7.46 +338.7%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is AMTD Digital Inc. (HKD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, AMTD Digital Inc. is potentially undervalued at its current price of $1.70. Based on our 13-model framework, AMTD Digital Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $7.02 — representing +313.2% implied upside — with 2 out of 2 active models confirming this thesis. Model dispersion is worth noting: FTNN targets $7.46 (+338.7%), versus Regime Cross at $6.59 (+287.7%). This +51.0% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About HKD?

2 of 13 models are currently active for HKD. All 2 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for HKD is $7.02 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HKD Rank in Software - Application?

Among 263 Software - Application stocks, HKD ranks #118 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.0 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Application Stocks →

As a digital enterprise, AMTD Digital Inc. operates in a sector where annual recurring revenue (ARR) is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating HKD should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is HKD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HKD a score of 36/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for AMTD Digital Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, AMTD Digital Inc. is rated at 7.0/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +51.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HKD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HKD's 2 active models, average confidence is 20%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy AMTD Digital Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Application Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Application stocks with 13-model coverage

UUnity Software Inc.QOC 7.0UPBDUpbound Group, Inc.QOC 7.0FSLYFastly, Inc.QOC 7.0KVYOKlaviyo, Inc.QOC 6.9WKWorkiva Inc.QOC 7.1AWREAware, Inc.QOC 6.9ONEIOneMeta Inc.QOC 5.4MNDOMIND C.T.I. LtdQOC 2.9IDNIntellicheck, Inc.QOC 8.5ADSKAutodesk, Inc.QOC 9.9PTCPTC Inc.QOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: U · UPBD · FSLY · KVYO · WK · AWRE · ONEI · MNDO · IDN · ADSK · PTC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HKD?

7 companies across all industries closest to HKD’s Quality of Company score of 7.0/10.

LQDALiquidia CorporationQOC 7.0ARWArrow Electronics, Inc.QOC 7.0MXCTMaxCyte, Inc.QOC 7.0ULBIUltralife CorporationQOC 7.0JEFJefferies Financial Group Inc.QOC 7.0BZUNBaozun Inc.QOC 7.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: LQDA · ARW · MXCT · ULBI · JEF · BZUN · NVDA

Where Does HKD Sit in CirclFi's Software - Application Rankings?

HKD is ranked against every other Software - Application stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Application stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About AMTD Digital Inc.’s Valuation?

What is AMTD Digital Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts AMTD Digital Inc. (HKD)'s intrinsic value at $7.02 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $6.59 to $7.46. The Quality of Company score is 7.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HKD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $1.70, 2 of 2 active models suggest HKD may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $7.02, 313.2% above the current price of $1.70 — a consensus view that HKD is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits AMTD Digital Inc.'s business model in Software - Application.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.0 mean for HKD?

AMTD Digital Inc.'s QOC of 7.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HKD?

CirclFi analyzes HKD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is HKD a value trap in 2026?

AMTD Digital Inc.'s Value Trap score is 36/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, AMTD Digital Inc. (HKD) has a median fair value of $7.02 — 313.2% above the current price of $1.70 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HKD/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HKD valuation
  • Financial statements: AMTD Digital Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001809691) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for HKD as of ; valuations recomputed .