National Presto Industries, Inc. (NPK) Fair Value 2026

NPK · Aerospace & Defense ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (22/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, National Presto Industries, Inc. (NPK) trades at $153.43, versus a $58.18 median fair value across its 11 active models — 62.1% below the current price. QOC: 7.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 22/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $18.90.

Key Facts

Ticker
NPK
Price
$153.43
Quality Score
7.4/10
Value Trap Risk
22/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: 11 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is National Presto Industries, Inc. (NPK) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, National Presto Industries, Inc. (NPK) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $58.18, 62.1% below the current price of $153.43. Estimates range from $6.72 to $146.91. NPK scores 7.4/10 on fundamental quality and 22/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. NPK’s -62.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Aerospace & Defense sector median is -23.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy National Presto Industries, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NPK?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($153.43)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $18.90 -87.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $65.06 -57.6%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $58.18 -62.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $53.28 -65.3%
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What Is NPK's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $6.72 to $146.91

CirclFi's 11 active models place National Presto Industries, Inc. (NPK) between $6.72 and $146.91 per share, a spread of 241% of the median. The median of that range — $58.18 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NPK, against a current price of $153.43.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$6.72median $58.18$146.91
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$6.72
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$146.91
Model agreement0 bullish · 10 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for NPK. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NPK, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is National Presto Industries, Inc. (NPK) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, National Presto Industries, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $58.18, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $153.43. With 10 out of 11 models flagging downside (-62.1% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $146.91 (-4.3%), versus Markov DDM at $6.72 (-95.6%). This +91.4% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About NPK?

11 of 13 models are currently active for NPK. All 11 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for NPK is $58.18 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $18.90 on its own, implying -87.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NPK Rank in Aerospace & Defense?

Among 92 Aerospace & Defense stocks, NPK ranks #34 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.4 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Aerospace & Defense Stocks →

As a aerospace company, National Presto Industries, Inc. operates in a sector where free cash flow conversion is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating NPK should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is NPK a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NPK a score of 22/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for National Presto Industries, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, National Presto Industries, Inc. is rated at 7.4/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +91.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NPK valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NPK's 11 active models, average confidence is 48%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy National Presto Industries, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Aerospace & Defense Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Aerospace & Defense stocks with 13-model coverage

KTOSKratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.QOC 7.4BAThe Boeing CompanyQOC 7.4LOARLoar Holdings Inc.QOC 7.6VSECVSE CorporationQOC 7.3SAROStandardAero, Inc.QOC 7.7MRCYMercury Systems, Inc.QOC 7.3AIRIAir Industries GroupQOC 5.8HAWKHawkEye 360, Inc.QOC 4.0NOCNorthrop Grumman CorporationQOC 8.6BUKSButler National CorporationQOC 9.4HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: KTOS · BA · LOAR · VSEC · SARO · MRCY · AIRI · HAWK · NOC · BUKS · HWM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NPK?

7 companies across all industries closest to NPK’s Quality of Company score of 7.4/10.

EVRGEvergy, Inc.QOC 7.4SWIMLatham Group, Inc.QOC 7.4PEGPublic Service Enterprise Group IncorporatedQOC 7.4DARDarling Ingredients Inc.QOC 7.4LYGLloyds Banking Group plcQOC 7.4OUTOUTFRONT Media Inc.QOC 7.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: EVRG · SWIM · PEG · DAR · LYG · OUT · NVDA

Where Does NPK Sit in CirclFi's Aerospace & Defense Rankings?

NPK is ranked against every other Aerospace & Defense stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Aerospace & Defense stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About National Presto Industries, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is National Presto Industries, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts National Presto Industries, Inc. (NPK)'s intrinsic value at $58.18 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $6.72 to $146.91. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $18.90 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NPK overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $153.43, 0 of 11 active models suggest NPK may be undervalued, while 11 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $58.18, 62.1% below the current price of $153.43 — a consensus view that NPK is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits National Presto Industries, Inc.'s business model in Aerospace & Defense.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.4 mean for NPK?

National Presto Industries, Inc.'s QOC of 7.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NPK?

CirclFi analyzes NPK with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NPK?

Of the 11 models currently active on NPK, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $146.91 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $6.72. CirclFi's published fair value for NPK is the median of that range, $58.18, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 241% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NPK a value trap in 2026?

National Presto Industries, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 22/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, National Presto Industries, Inc. (NPK) has a median fair value of $58.18 — 62.1% below the current price of $153.43 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NPK/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NPK valuation
  • Financial statements: National Presto Industries, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000080172) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NPK as of ; valuations recomputed .

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