Marex Group Limited (MRX) Fair Value 2026

MRX · Capital Markets ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (17/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Marex Group Limited (MRX) trades at $71.38, versus a $81.90 median fair value across its 5 active models — 14.7% above the current price. QOC: 7.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 17/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MRX
Price
$71.38
Quality Score
7.4/10
Value Trap Risk
17/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +4.6% upside with 7% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (5/13) may reduce confidence

Is Marex Group Limited (MRX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Marex Group Limited (MRX) appears undervalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $81.90, 14.7% above the current price of $71.38. Estimates range from $5.85 to $137.44. MRX scores 7.4/10 on fundamental quality and 17/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. MRX’s +14.7% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Capital Markets sector median is -34.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Marex Group Limited Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MRX?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($71.38)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $74.63 +4.6%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $5.85 -91.8%
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What Is MRX's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $5.85 to $137.44

CirclFi's 5 active models place Marex Group Limited (MRX) between $5.85 and $137.44 per share, a spread of 161% of the median. The median of that range — $81.90 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MRX, against a current price of $71.38.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$5.85median $81.90$137.44
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$5.85
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$137.44
Model agreement3 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MRX. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MRX, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Marex Group Limited (MRX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Marex Group Limited's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $81.90. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $71.38 (implied upside of +14.7%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 3 of 5 bullish models. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +92.5% (fair value: $137.44), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at -91.8% ($5.85). The spread between these extremes — +184.4% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About MRX?

5 of 13 models are currently active for MRX. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MRX is $81.90 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MRX Rank in Capital Markets?

Among 103 Capital Markets stocks, MRX ranks #28 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.4 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Capital Markets Stocks →

Within the Capital Markets space, Marex Group Limited competes in an environment where CET1 capital ratio often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is MRX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MRX a score of 17/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Marex Group Limited. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Marex Group Limited's fundamental quality profile registers 7.4/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +184.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MRX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MRX's 5 active models, average confidence is 29%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Marex Group Limited Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Capital Markets Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Capital Markets stocks with 13-model coverage

LAZLazard, Inc.QOC 7.4GSThe Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.QOC 7.4MCMoelis & CompanyQOC 7.5HGBLHeritage Global Inc.QOC 7.3PWPPerella Weinberg PartnersQOC 7.6NMRNomura Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.1CDChaince Digital Holdings Inc.QOC 5.8ANYSphere 3D Corp.QOC 4.5HOODRobinhood Markets, Inc.QOC 9.7FUTUFutu Holdings LimitedQOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: LAZ · GS · MC · HGBL · PWP · NMR · CD · ANY · HOOD · FUTU

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MRX?

6 companies across all industries closest to MRX’s Quality of Company score of 7.4/10.

LANDGladstone Land CorporationQOC 7.4FROGJFrog Ltd.QOC 7.4CTRMCastor Maritime Inc.QOC 7.4SPRSSurge Components, Inc.QOC 7.4CPTCamden Property TrustQOC 7.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: LAND · FROG · CTRM · SPRS · CPT · NVDA

Where Does MRX Sit in CirclFi's Capital Markets Rankings?

MRX is ranked against every other Capital Markets stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Capital Markets stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Marex Group Limited’s Valuation?

What is Marex Group Limited's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Marex Group Limited (MRX)'s intrinsic value at $81.90 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $5.85 to $137.44. The Quality of Company score is 7.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MRX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $71.38, 4 of 5 active models suggest MRX may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $81.90, 14.7% above the current price of $71.38 — a consensus view that MRX is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Marex Group Limited's business model in Capital Markets.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.4 mean for MRX?

Marex Group Limited's QOC of 7.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MRX?

CirclFi analyzes MRX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MRX?

Of the 5 models currently active on MRX, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $137.44 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $5.85. CirclFi's published fair value for MRX is the median of that range, $81.90, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 161% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MRX a value trap in 2026?

Marex Group Limited's Value Trap score is 17/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Marex Group Limited (MRX) has a median fair value of $81.90 — 14.7% above the current price of $71.38 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MRX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MRX valuation
  • Financial statements: Marex Group Limited 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001997464) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MRX as of ; valuations recomputed .

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