Marex Group plc (MRX) Fair Value 2026

MRX · Security & Commodity Brokers, Dealers, Exchanges & Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Marex Group plc (MRX) trades at $64.88. QOC: 9.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MRX
Price
$64.88
Quality Score
9.0/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +224.1% upside with 37% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($64.88)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$42.15 -35.0%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$146.12 +125.2%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$210.26 +224.1%
Markov DDM
Medium Conviction
$122.50 +88.8%

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What Is Marex Group plc (MRX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Marex Group plc's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $100.99. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $64.88 (implied upside of +55.7%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 7 of 10 bullish models. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +224.1% (fair value: $210.26), while EPV is the most conservative at -35.0% ($42.15). The spread between these extremes — +259.1% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About MRX?

10 of 13 models are currently active for MRX. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MRX Rank in Security & Commodity Brokers, Dealers, Exchanges & Services?

Among 14 Security & Commodity Brokers, Dealers, Exchanges & Services stocks, MRX ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.0 places MRX in the top tier.

Marex Group plc operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is MRX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MRX a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Marex Group plc. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Marex Group plc's fundamental quality profile registers 9.0/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +259.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MRX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MRX's 10 active models, average confidence is 31%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Marex Group plc Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Security & Commodity Brokers, Dealers, Exchanges & Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

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Frequently Asked Questions About Marex Group plc

What is Marex Group plc's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Marex Group plc (MRX) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value. The Quality of Company score is 9.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MRX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $64.88, 7 of 10 active models suggest MRX may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Marex Group plc's business model in Security & Commodity Brokers, Dealers, Exchanges & Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.0 mean for MRX?

Marex Group plc's QOC of 9.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MRX?

CirclFi analyzes MRX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is MRX a value trap in 2026?

Marex Group plc's Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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