Orion Group Holdings, Inc. (ORN) Fair Value 2026

ORN · Engineering & Construction ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Orion Group Holdings, Inc. (ORN) trades at $9.73, versus a $9.82 median fair value across its 8 active models — 0.9% above the current price. QOC: 6.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ORN
Price
$9.73
Quality Score
6.9/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +114.0% upside with 58% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (8/13) may reduce confidence

Is Orion Group Holdings, Inc. (ORN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Orion Group Holdings, Inc. (ORN) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $9.82, essentially in line with the current price of $9.73. Estimates range from $0.65 to $20.82. ORN scores 6.9/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ORN’s +0.9% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Engineering & Construction sector median is -33.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Orion Group Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ORN?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($9.73)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $9.79 +0.6%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $20.82 +114.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $0.65 -93.3%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $1.64 -83.2%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 4 additional models including PWERM, Regime Cross-Sectional, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 8 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is ORN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $0.65 to $20.82

CirclFi's 8 active models place Orion Group Holdings, Inc. (ORN) between $0.65 and $20.82 per share, a spread of 205% of the median. The median of that range — $9.82 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ORN, against a current price of $9.73.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · First Chicago
$0.65median $9.82$20.82
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$0.65
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$20.82
Model agreement3 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ORN. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ORN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Orion Group Holdings, Inc. (ORN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Orion Group Holdings, Inc. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $9.73. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $9.82 (+0.9% median upside), masking a wide model spread between the 3 bullish models and 3 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $20.82 (+114.0%), versus ML-RIV at $0.65 (-93.3%). This +207.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About ORN?

8 of 13 models are currently active for ORN. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ORN is $9.82 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ORN Rank in Engineering & Construction?

Among 53 Engineering & Construction stocks, ORN ranks #30 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.9 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Engineering & Construction Stocks →

Within the Engineering & Construction space, Orion Group Holdings, Inc. competes in an environment where aftermarket revenue mix often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is ORN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ORN a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Orion Group Holdings, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Orion Group Holdings, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.9/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +207.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ORN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ORN's 8 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Orion Group Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Engineering & Construction Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Engineering & Construction stocks with 13-model coverage

CDLRCadeler A/SQOC 7.0ESOAEnergy Services of America CorporationQOC 6.8BBCPConcrete Pumping Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.4MTRXMatrix Service CompanyQOC 6.6CDNLCardinal Infrastructure Group Inc.QOC 7.5FLRFluor CorporationQOC 6.5FGLFounder Group LimitedQOC 5.2IESCIES Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.4ACAArcosa, Inc.QOC 8.4FIXComfort Systems USA, Inc.QOC 9.6STRLSterling Infrastructure, Inc.QOC 9.5

Read investment analysis: CDLR · ESOA · BBCP · MTRX · CDNL · FLR · FGL · IESC · ACA · FIX · STRL

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ORN?

7 companies across all industries closest to ORN’s Quality of Company score of 6.9/10.

METCRamaco Resources, Inc.QOC 6.9MRAMEverspin Technologies, Inc.QOC 6.9PRCHPorch Group, Inc.QOC 6.9BNEDBarnes & Noble Education, Inc.QOC 6.9MINDMIND Technology, Inc.QOC 6.9UFIUnifi, Inc.QOC 6.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: METC · MRAM · PRCH · BNED · MIND · UFI · NVDA

Where Does ORN Sit in CirclFi's Engineering & Construction Rankings?

ORN is ranked against every other Engineering & Construction stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Engineering & Construction stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Orion Group Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Orion Group Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Orion Group Holdings, Inc. (ORN)'s intrinsic value at $9.82 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $0.65 to $20.82. The Quality of Company score is 6.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ORN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $9.73, 5 of 8 active models suggest ORN may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $9.82, essentially in line with the current price of $9.73 — a consensus view that ORN is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Orion Group Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Engineering & Construction.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.9 mean for ORN?

Orion Group Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 6.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ORN?

CirclFi analyzes ORN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ORN?

Of the 8 models currently active on ORN, First Chicago is the most bullish at $20.82 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $0.65. CirclFi's published fair value for ORN is the median of that range, $9.82, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 205% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ORN a value trap in 2026?

Orion Group Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Orion Group Holdings, Inc. (ORN) has a median fair value of $9.82 — essentially in line with the current price of $9.73 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ORN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ORN valuation
  • Financial statements: Orion Group Holdings, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001402829) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ORN as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 8 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on ORN.

Unlock All 8 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

4 models hidden for ORN Unlock All 8 — $39/mo