APi Group Corporation (APG) Fair Value 2026

APG · Engineering & Construction ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, APi Group Corporation (APG) trades at $41.25, versus a $18.99 median fair value across its 9 active models — 54.0% below the current price. QOC: 8.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $24.25.

Key Facts

Ticker
APG
Price
$41.25
Quality Score
8.5/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.5/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is APi Group Corporation (APG) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, APi Group Corporation (APG) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $18.99, 54.0% below the current price of $41.25. Estimates range from $3.92 to $69.01. APG scores 8.5/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. APG’s -54.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Engineering & Construction sector median is -33.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy APi Group Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give APG?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($41.25)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $24.25 -41.2%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $18.99 -54.0%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $27.81 -32.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $4.10 -90.1%
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What Is APG's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $3.92 to $69.01

CirclFi's 9 active models place APi Group Corporation (APG) between $3.92 and $69.01 per share, a spread of 343% of the median. The median of that range — $18.99 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for APG, against a current price of $41.25.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$3.92median $18.99$69.01
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$3.92
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$69.01
Model agreement1 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for APG. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on APG, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is APi Group Corporation (APG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, APi Group Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $18.99. Trading at its current price of $41.25, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 8 of 9 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -54.0%. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $69.01 (+67.3%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $3.92 (-90.5%). This +157.8% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about APi Group Corporation's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About APG?

9 of 13 models are currently active for APG. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for APG is $18.99 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $24.25 on its own, implying -41.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does APG Rank in Engineering & Construction?

Among 53 Engineering & Construction stocks, APG ranks #12 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.5 places APG in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Engineering & Construction Stocks →

The Engineering & Construction sector introduces analytical considerations specific to industrial businesses. For APi Group Corporation, metrics like margin expansion trajectory provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is APG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns APG a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for APi Group Corporation. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, APi Group Corporation earns a quality score of 8.5/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +157.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every APG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across APG's 9 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy APi Group Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Engineering & Construction Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Engineering & Construction stocks with 13-model coverage

PWRQuanta Services, Inc.QOC 8.5WLDNWilldan Group, Inc.QOC 8.5TTEKTetra Tech, Inc.QOC 8.5STNStantec Inc.QOC 8.5EXPOExponent, Inc.QOC 8.6GVAGranite Construction IncorporatedQOC 8.5JJacobs Solutions Inc.QOC 7.6BLNKBlink Charging Co.QOC 6.0SKKSKK Holdings LimitedQOC 2.7FIXComfort Systems USA, Inc.QOC 9.6STRLSterling Infrastructure, Inc.QOC 9.5

Read investment analysis: PWR · WLDN · TTEK · STN · EXPO · GVA · J · BLNK · SKK · FIX · STRL

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to APG?

7 companies across all industries closest to APG’s Quality of Company score of 8.5/10.

FELEFranklin Electric Co., Inc.QOC 8.5MRVLMarvell Technology, Inc.QOC 8.5FIBKFirst Interstate BancSystem, Inc.QOC 8.5KEQUKewaunee Scientific CorporationQOC 8.5LYTSLSI Industries Inc.QOC 8.5MRSHMarsh & McLennan Companies, Inc.QOC 8.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: FELE · MRVL · FIBK · KEQU · LYTS · MRSH · NVDA

Where Does APG Sit in CirclFi's Engineering & Construction Rankings?

APG is ranked against every other Engineering & Construction stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Engineering & Construction stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About APi Group Corporation’s Valuation?

What is APi Group Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts APi Group Corporation (APG)'s intrinsic value at $18.99 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $3.92 to $69.01. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $24.25 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is APG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $41.25, 1 of 9 active models suggest APG may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $18.99, 54.0% below the current price of $41.25 — a consensus view that APG is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits APi Group Corporation's business model in Engineering & Construction.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.5 mean for APG?

APi Group Corporation's QOC of 8.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on APG?

CirclFi analyzes APG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on APG?

Of the 9 models currently active on APG, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $69.01 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $3.92. CirclFi's published fair value for APG is the median of that range, $18.99, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 343% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is APG a value trap in 2026?

APi Group Corporation's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, APi Group Corporation (APG) has a median fair value of $18.99 — 54.0% below the current price of $41.25 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/APG/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this APG valuation
  • Financial statements: APi Group Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001796209) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for APG as of ; valuations recomputed .

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