MasTec, Inc. (MTZ) Fair Value 2026

MTZ · Water, Sewer, Pipeline, Comm & Power Line Construction ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, MasTec, Inc. (MTZ) trades at $360.27, approximately 463% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $64.05. QOC: 7.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MTZ
Price
$360.27
Quality Score
7.5/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: 12 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($360.27)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$64.05 -82.2%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$10.69 -97.0%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$93.18 -74.1%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$72.73 -79.8%

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What Is MasTec, Inc. (MTZ) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, MasTec, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $113.40, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $360.28. With 11 out of 12 models flagging downside (-68.5% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: PWERM targets $379.31 (+5.3%), versus EPV at $10.69 (-97.0%). This +102.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV, Markov DDM lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About MTZ?

12 of 13 models are currently active for MTZ. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 11 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates MTZ's intrinsic value at $64.05, implying -82.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MTZ Rank in Water, Sewer, Pipeline, Comm & Power Line Construction?

Among 7 Water, Sewer, Pipeline, Comm & Power Line Construction stocks, MTZ ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.5 indicates above-average quality.

Within the Water, Sewer, Pipeline, Comm & Power Line Construction space, MasTec, Inc. competes in an environment where aftermarket revenue mix often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is MTZ a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MTZ a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for MasTec, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, MasTec, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.5/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +102.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MTZ valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MTZ's 12 active models, average confidence is 52%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy MasTec, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Water, Sewer, Pipeline, Comm & Power Line Construction Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

6 related Water, Sewer, Pipeline, Comm & Power Line Construction stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: DY · PLPC · PRIM · ESOA · MYRG

Frequently Asked Questions About MasTec, Inc.

What is MasTec, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, MasTec, Inc. (MTZ) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $64.05. The Quality of Company score is 7.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MTZ overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $360.27, 1 of 12 active models suggest MTZ may be undervalued, while 11 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits MasTec, Inc.'s business model in Water, Sewer, Pipeline, Comm & Power Line Construction.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.5 mean for MTZ?

MasTec, Inc.'s QOC of 7.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MTZ?

CirclFi analyzes MTZ with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is MTZ a value trap in 2026?

MasTec, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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