Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. (SFM) Fair Value 2026

SFM · Grocery Stores ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. (SFM) trades at $81.04, versus a $87.71 median fair value across its 11 active models — 8.2% above the current price. QOC: 8.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $117.54.

Key Facts

Ticker
SFM
Price
$81.04
Quality Score
8.2/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +45.0% upside with 68% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Is Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. (SFM) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. (SFM) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $87.71, within 8.2% of the current price of $81.04. Estimates range from $37.91 to $200.93. SFM scores 8.2/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. SFM’s +8.2% gap is narrower than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SFM?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($81.04)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $117.54 +45.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $52.04 -35.8%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $87.71 +8.2%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $104.35 +28.8%
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What Is SFM's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $37.91 to $200.93

CirclFi's 11 active models place Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. (SFM) between $37.91 and $200.93 per share, a spread of 186% of the median. The median of that range — $87.71 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for SFM, against a current price of $81.04.

Low · EROICHigh · Markov DDM
$37.91median $87.71$200.93
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$37.91
Most bullish modelMarkov DDM$200.93
Model agreement6 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for SFM. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on SFM, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. (SFM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $81.04. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $87.71 (+8.2% median upside), masking a wide model spread between the 6 bullish models and 4 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: Markov DDM targets $200.93 (+147.9%), versus EROIC at $37.91 (-53.2%). This +201.2% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About SFM?

11 of 13 models are currently active for SFM. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for SFM is $87.71 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $117.54 on its own, implying +45.0% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SFM Rank in Grocery Stores?

Among 12 Grocery Stores stocks, SFM ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.2 places SFM in the top tier.

Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is SFM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SFM a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. scores 8.2 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +201.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SFM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SFM's 11 active models, average confidence is 49%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Grocery Stores Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Grocery Stores stocks with 13-model coverage

NGVCNatural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.QOC 8.6WMKWeis Markets, Inc.QOC 7.6DDLDingdong (Cayman) LimitedQOC 7.6KRThe Kroger Co.QOC 7.6ACIAlbertsons Companies, Inc.QOC 7.5MSSMaison Solutions Inc.QOC 7.1GOGrocery Outlet Holding Corp.QOC 6.5DNUTKrispy Kreme, Inc.QOC 5.2VHUBVenHub Global, Inc.QOC 5.1YSWYYesway, Inc.QOC 4.9HCWCHealthy Choice Wellness Corp.QOC 4.7

Read investment analysis: NGVC · WMK · DDL · KR · ACI · MSS · GO · DNUT · VHUB · YSWY · HCWC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SFM?

7 companies across all industries closest to SFM’s Quality of Company score of 8.2/10.

ANDEThe Andersons, Inc.QOC 8.2HLTHilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.QOC 8.2FMAOFarmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.2STZConstellation Brands, Inc.QOC 8.2NATRNature's Sunshine Products, Inc.QOC 8.2MDNCMedinotec Inc.QOC 8.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ANDE · HLT · FMAO · STZ · NATR · MDNC · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. (SFM)'s intrinsic value at $87.71 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $37.91 to $200.93. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $117.54 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SFM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $81.04, 6 of 11 active models suggest SFM may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $87.71, within 8.2% of the current price of $81.04 — a consensus view that SFM is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc.'s business model in Grocery Stores.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.2 mean for SFM?

Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc.'s QOC of 8.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SFM?

CirclFi analyzes SFM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on SFM?

Of the 11 models currently active on SFM, Markov DDM is the most bullish at $200.93 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $37.91. CirclFi's published fair value for SFM is the median of that range, $87.71, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 186% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is SFM a value trap in 2026?

Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. (SFM) has a median fair value of $87.71 — within 8.2% of the current price of $81.04 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SFM/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SFM valuation
  • Financial statements: Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001575515) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SFM as of ; valuations recomputed .

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