Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NGVC) Fair Value 2026

NGVC · Grocery Stores ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NGVC) trades at $27.24, versus a $10.94 median fair value across its 11 active models — 59.8% below the current price. QOC: 8.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $2.23.

Key Facts

Ticker
NGVC
Price
$27.24
Quality Score
8.6/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.6/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NGVC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NGVC) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $10.94, 59.8% below the current price of $27.24. Estimates range from $1.08 to $39.31. NGVC scores 8.6/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. NGVC’s -59.8% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NGVC?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($27.24)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $2.23 -91.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.08 -96.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $10.94 -59.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $7.38 -72.9%
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What Is NGVC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $1.08 to $39.31

CirclFi's 11 active models place Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NGVC) between $1.08 and $39.31 per share, a spread of 350% of the median. The median of that range — $10.94 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NGVC, against a current price of $27.24.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$1.08median $10.94$39.31
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$1.08
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$39.31
Model agreement2 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for NGVC. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NGVC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NGVC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $10.94. Trading at its current price of $27.24, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 9 of 11 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -59.8%. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $39.31 (+44.3%), versus EPV at $1.08 (-96.0%). This +140.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About NGVC?

11 of 13 models are currently active for NGVC. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for NGVC is $10.94 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $2.23 on its own, implying -91.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NGVC Rank in Grocery Stores?

Among 12 Grocery Stores stocks, NGVC ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.6 places NGVC in the top tier.

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is NGVC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NGVC a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. scores 8.6 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +140.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NGVC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NGVC's 11 active models, average confidence is 52%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Grocery Stores Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Grocery Stores stocks with 13-model coverage

SFMSprouts Farmers Market, Inc.QOC 8.2WMKWeis Markets, Inc.QOC 7.6DDLDingdong (Cayman) LimitedQOC 7.6KRThe Kroger Co.QOC 7.6ACIAlbertsons Companies, Inc.QOC 7.5MSSMaison Solutions Inc.QOC 7.1GOGrocery Outlet Holding Corp.QOC 6.5DNUTKrispy Kreme, Inc.QOC 5.2VHUBVenHub Global, Inc.QOC 5.1YSWYYesway, Inc.QOC 4.9HCWCHealthy Choice Wellness Corp.QOC 4.7

Read investment analysis: SFM · WMK · DDL · KR · ACI · MSS · GO · DNUT · VHUB · YSWY · HCWC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NGVC?

7 companies across all industries closest to NGVC’s Quality of Company score of 8.6/10.

TCBSTexas Community Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.6CRAICRA International, Inc.QOC 8.6PAYSPaysign, Inc.QOC 8.6BBSIBarrett Business Services, Inc.QOC 8.6BCOThe Brink's CompanyQOC 8.6KFYKorn FerryQOC 8.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: TCBS · CRAI · PAYS · BBSI · BCO · KFY · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NGVC)'s intrinsic value at $10.94 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $1.08 to $39.31. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $2.23 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NGVC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $27.24, 2 of 11 active models suggest NGVC may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $10.94, 59.8% below the current price of $27.24 — a consensus view that NGVC is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.'s business model in Grocery Stores.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.6 mean for NGVC?

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.'s QOC of 8.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NGVC?

CirclFi analyzes NGVC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NGVC?

Of the 11 models currently active on NGVC, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $39.31 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $1.08. CirclFi's published fair value for NGVC is the median of that range, $10.94, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 350% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NGVC a value trap in 2026?

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NGVC) has a median fair value of $10.94 — 59.8% below the current price of $27.24 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NGVC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NGVC valuation

Market data for NGVC as of ; valuations recomputed .

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