The Kroger Co. (KR) Fair Value 2026

KR · Grocery Stores ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (7/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, The Kroger Co. (KR) trades at $56.93, versus a $53.62 median fair value across its 11 active models — 5.8% below the current price. QOC: 7.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 7/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $192.53.

Key Facts

Ticker
KR
Price
$56.93
Quality Score
7.6/10
Value Trap Risk
7/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +238.2% upside with 74% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Is The Kroger Co. (KR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, The Kroger Co. (KR) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $53.62, within 5.8% of the current price of $56.93. Estimates range from $13.94 to $219.34. KR scores 7.6/10 on fundamental quality and 7/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. KR’s -5.8% gap is narrower than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy The Kroger Co. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give KR?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($56.93)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $192.53 +238.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $53.62 -5.8%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $80.77 +41.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $13.94 -75.5%
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What Is KR's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $13.94 to $219.34

CirclFi's 11 active models place The Kroger Co. (KR) between $13.94 and $219.34 per share, a spread of 383% of the median. The median of that range — $53.62 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for KR, against a current price of $56.93.

Low · EROICHigh · Markov DDM
$13.94median $53.62$219.34
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$13.94
Most bullish modelMarkov DDM$219.34
Model agreement5 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for KR. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on KR, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is The Kroger Co. (KR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, The Kroger Co.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $53.62, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $56.93. With a median implied return of -5.8% across a split 5–6 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +360.8% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, Markov DDM sees the most upside at +285.3% (fair value: $219.34), while EROIC is the most conservative at -75.5% ($13.94). The spread between these extremes — +360.8% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About KR?

11 of 13 models are currently active for KR. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for KR is $53.62 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $192.53 on its own, implying +238.2% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does KR Rank in Grocery Stores?

Among 12 Grocery Stores stocks, KR ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.6 indicates above-average quality.

The Kroger Co. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is KR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns KR a score of 7/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for The Kroger Co.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, The Kroger Co.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.6/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +360.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every KR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across KR's 11 active models, average confidence is 54%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy The Kroger Co. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Grocery Stores Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Grocery Stores stocks with 13-model coverage

NGVCNatural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.QOC 8.6SFMSprouts Farmers Market, Inc.QOC 8.2WMKWeis Markets, Inc.QOC 7.6DDLDingdong (Cayman) LimitedQOC 7.6ACIAlbertsons Companies, Inc.QOC 7.5MSSMaison Solutions Inc.QOC 7.1GOGrocery Outlet Holding Corp.QOC 6.5DNUTKrispy Kreme, Inc.QOC 5.2VHUBVenHub Global, Inc.QOC 5.1YSWYYesway, Inc.QOC 4.9HCWCHealthy Choice Wellness Corp.QOC 4.7

Read investment analysis: NGVC · SFM · WMK · DDL · ACI · MSS · GO · DNUT · VHUB · YSWY · HCWC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to KR?

7 companies across all industries closest to KR’s Quality of Company score of 7.6/10.

CNHCNH Industrial N.V.QOC 7.6SGHCSuper Group (SGHC) LimitedQOC 7.6FTKFlotek Industries, Inc.QOC 7.6TSNTyson Foods, Inc.QOC 7.6PWPPerella Weinberg PartnersQOC 7.6ZZillow Group, Inc.QOC 7.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CNH · SGHC · FTK · TSN · PWP · Z · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About The Kroger Co.’s Valuation?

What is The Kroger Co.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts The Kroger Co. (KR)'s intrinsic value at $53.62 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $13.94 to $219.34. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $192.53 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is KR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $56.93, 5 of 11 active models suggest KR may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $53.62, within 5.8% of the current price of $56.93 — a consensus view that KR is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits The Kroger Co.'s business model in Grocery Stores.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.6 mean for KR?

The Kroger Co.'s QOC of 7.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on KR?

CirclFi analyzes KR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on KR?

Of the 11 models currently active on KR, Markov DDM is the most bullish at $219.34 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $13.94. CirclFi's published fair value for KR is the median of that range, $53.62, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 383% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is KR a value trap in 2026?

The Kroger Co.'s Value Trap score is 7/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, The Kroger Co. (KR) has a median fair value of $53.62 — within 5.8% of the current price of $56.93 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/KR/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this KR valuation
  • Financial statements: The Kroger Co. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000056873) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for KR as of ; valuations recomputed .

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