Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) Fair Value 2026

GO · Grocery Stores ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (11/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) trades at $11.70, versus a $12.64 median fair value across its 6 active models — 8.1% above the current price. QOC: 6.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 11/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $1.71.

Key Facts

Ticker
GO
Price
$11.70
Quality Score
6.5/10
Value Trap Risk
11/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: 6 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $12.64, within 8.1% of the current price of $11.70. Estimates range from $1.71 to $23.31. GO scores 6.5/10 on fundamental quality and 11/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. GO’s +8.1% gap is narrower than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give GO?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($11.70)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.71 -85.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $6.42 -45.1%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $10.44 -10.8%
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What Is GO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $1.71 to $23.31

CirclFi's 6 active models place Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) between $1.71 and $23.31 per share, a spread of 171% of the median. The median of that range — $12.64 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for GO, against a current price of $11.70.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · FTNN
$1.71median $12.64$23.31
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$1.71
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$23.31
Model agreement3 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for GO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on GO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median $12.64, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $11.70. While the median implied return is +8.1%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +184.6% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, FTNN, places fair value at $23.31 (+99.2%), while Bayesian DCF — the most conservative — estimates $1.71 (-85.4%). This +184.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About GO?

6 of 13 models are currently active for GO. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for GO is $12.64 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $1.71 on its own, implying -85.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does GO Rank in Grocery Stores?

Among 12 Grocery Stores stocks, GO ranks #8 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.5 indicates above-average quality.

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is GO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns GO a score of 11/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. earns a quality score of 6.5/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +184.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every GO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across GO's 6 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Grocery Stores Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Grocery Stores stocks with 13-model coverage

NGVCNatural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.QOC 8.6SFMSprouts Farmers Market, Inc.QOC 8.2WMKWeis Markets, Inc.QOC 7.6DDLDingdong (Cayman) LimitedQOC 7.6KRThe Kroger Co.QOC 7.6ACIAlbertsons Companies, Inc.QOC 7.5MSSMaison Solutions Inc.QOC 7.1DNUTKrispy Kreme, Inc.QOC 5.2VHUBVenHub Global, Inc.QOC 5.1YSWYYesway, Inc.QOC 4.9HCWCHealthy Choice Wellness Corp.QOC 4.7

Read investment analysis: NGVC · SFM · WMK · DDL · KR · ACI · MSS · DNUT · VHUB · YSWY · HCWC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to GO?

7 companies across all industries closest to GO’s Quality of Company score of 6.5/10.

TCITranscontinental Realty Investors, Inc.QOC 6.5DYAIDyadic International, Inc.QOC 6.5OXMOxford Industries, Inc.QOC 6.5FSTJFirst America Resources CorporationQOC 6.5PFSIPennyMac Financial Services, Inc.QOC 6.5RGSRegis CorporationQOC 6.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: TCI · DYAI · OXM · FSTJ · PFSI · RGS · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.’s Valuation?

What is Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO)'s intrinsic value at $12.64 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $1.71 to $23.31. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $1.71 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is GO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $11.70, 3 of 6 active models suggest GO may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $12.64, within 8.1% of the current price of $11.70 — a consensus view that GO is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.'s business model in Grocery Stores.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.5 mean for GO?

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.'s QOC of 6.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on GO?

CirclFi analyzes GO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on GO?

Of the 6 models currently active on GO, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $23.31 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $1.71. CirclFi's published fair value for GO is the median of that range, $12.64, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 171% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is GO a value trap in 2026?

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.'s Value Trap score is 11/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) has a median fair value of $12.64 — within 8.1% of the current price of $11.70 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/GO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this GO valuation
  • Financial statements: Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001771515) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for GO as of ; valuations recomputed .

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