Cloudflare, Inc. (NET) Fair Value 2026

NET · Software - Infrastructure ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Cloudflare, Inc. (NET) trades at $308.23, versus a $19.45 median fair value across its 5 active models — 93.7% below the current price. QOC: 7.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $16.23.

Key Facts

Ticker
NET
Price
$308.23
Quality Score
7.9/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: 5 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Cloudflare, Inc. (NET) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Cloudflare, Inc. (NET) appears overvalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $19.45, 93.7% below the current price of $308.23. Estimates range from $8.73 to $45.65. NET scores 7.9/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. NET’s -93.7% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Software - Infrastructure sector median is -22.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Cloudflare, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NET?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($308.23)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $16.23 -94.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $19.45 -93.7%
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What Is NET's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $8.73 to $45.65

CirclFi's 5 active models place Cloudflare, Inc. (NET) between $8.73 and $45.65 per share, a spread of 190% of the median. The median of that range — $19.45 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NET, against a current price of $308.23.

Low · RCMH-DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$8.73median $19.45$45.65
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRCMH-DCF$8.73
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$45.65
Model agreement0 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for NET. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NET, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Cloudflare, Inc. (NET) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Cloudflare, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $19.45, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $308.23. With 5 out of 5 models flagging downside (-93.7% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth.

What Do the Models Say About NET?

5 of 13 models are currently active for NET. All 5 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for NET is $19.45 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $16.23 on its own, implying -94.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NET Rank in Software - Infrastructure?

Among 186 Software - Infrastructure stocks, NET ranks #53 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.9 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Infrastructure Stocks →

As a technology sector, Cloudflare, Inc. operates in a sector where gross margin profile is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating NET should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is NET a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NET a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Cloudflare, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Cloudflare, Inc. is rated at 7.9/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

Models cluster within a tight range (+12.0% spread), increasing conviction. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NET valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NET's 5 active models, average confidence is 39%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Cloudflare, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Infrastructure Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Infrastructure stocks with 13-model coverage

IMXIInternational Money Express, Inc.QOC 7.9MDBMongoDB, Inc.QOC 7.9RPDRapid7, Inc.QOC 7.9PRTHPriority Technology Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.9VRSNVeriSign, Inc.QOC 8.0EVTCEVERTEC, Inc.QOC 7.7RXTRackspace Technology, Inc.QOC 5.8ZPTAZapata Quantum, Inc.QOC 4.7NTAPNetApp, Inc.QOC 9.3FTNTFortinet, Inc.QOC 9.7QLYSQualys, Inc.QOC 9.7

Read investment analysis: IMXI · MDB · RPD · PRTH · VRSN · EVTC · RXT · ZPTA · NTAP · FTNT · QLYS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NET?

7 companies across all industries closest to NET’s Quality of Company score of 7.9/10.

CCKCrown Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.9AWRAmerican States Water CompanyQOC 7.9CRCTCricut, Inc.QOC 7.9FAFFirst American Financial CorporationQOC 7.9TTMITTM Technologies, Inc.QOC 7.9ORealty Income CorporationQOC 7.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CCK · AWR · CRCT · FAF · TTMI · O · NVDA

Where Does NET Sit in CirclFi's Software - Infrastructure Rankings?

NET is ranked against every other Software - Infrastructure stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Infrastructure stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Cloudflare, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Cloudflare, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Cloudflare, Inc. (NET)'s intrinsic value at $19.45 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $8.73 to $45.65. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $16.23 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NET overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $308.23, 0 of 5 active models suggest NET may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $19.45, 93.7% below the current price of $308.23 — a consensus view that NET is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Cloudflare, Inc.'s business model in Software - Infrastructure.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.9 mean for NET?

Cloudflare, Inc.'s QOC of 7.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NET?

CirclFi analyzes NET with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NET?

Of the 5 models currently active on NET, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $45.65 per share, and RCMH-DCF is the most bearish at $8.73. CirclFi's published fair value for NET is the median of that range, $19.45, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 190% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NET a value trap in 2026?

Cloudflare, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Cloudflare, Inc. (NET) has a median fair value of $19.45 — 93.7% below the current price of $308.23 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NET/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NET valuation
  • Financial statements: Cloudflare, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001477333) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NET as of ; valuations recomputed .

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