Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (CHKP) Fair Value 2026

CHKP · Software - Infrastructure ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (26/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (CHKP) trades at $133.23, versus a $191.74 median fair value across its 10 active models — 43.9% above the current price. QOC: 9.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 26/100 (LOW). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $181.80.

Key Facts

Ticker
CHKP
Price
$133.23
Quality Score
9.0/10
Value Trap Risk
26/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +49.7% upside with 24% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Is Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (CHKP) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (CHKP) appears undervalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $191.74, 43.9% above the current price of $133.23. Estimates range from $86.33 to $336.88. CHKP scores 9.0/10 on fundamental quality and 26/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. CHKP’s +43.9% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Software - Infrastructure sector median is -22.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CHKP?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($133.23)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $181.80 +36.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $184.08 +38.2%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $199.39 +49.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $86.33 -35.2%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 6 additional models including Markov DDM, ML-RIV, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 10 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is CHKP's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $86.33 to $336.88

CirclFi's 10 active models place Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (CHKP) between $86.33 and $336.88 per share, a spread of 131% of the median. The median of that range — $191.74 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CHKP, against a current price of $133.23.

Low · EROICHigh · Markov DDM
$86.33median $191.74$336.88
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$86.33
Most bullish modelMarkov DDM$336.88
Model agreement9 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CHKP. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CHKP, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (CHKP) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for Check Point Software Technologies Ltd.. Trading at $133.23 against an estimated intrinsic value of $191.74, 9 of 10 active models flag meaningful upside of +43.9% at the median. The most optimistic model, Markov DDM, places fair value at $336.88 (+152.9%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $86.33 (-35.2%). This +188.1% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Check Point Software Technologies Ltd.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About CHKP?

10 of 13 models are currently active for CHKP. Of these, 9 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CHKP is $191.74 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $181.80 on its own, implying +36.5% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CHKP Rank in Software - Infrastructure?

Among 186 Software - Infrastructure stocks, CHKP ranks #13 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.0 places CHKP in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Infrastructure Stocks →

The Software - Infrastructure sector introduces analytical considerations specific to technology businesses. For Check Point Software Technologies Ltd., metrics like net revenue retention (NRR) provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is CHKP a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CHKP a score of 26/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Check Point Software Technologies Ltd.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. scores 9.0 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a elite rating that ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +188.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CHKP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CHKP's 10 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Infrastructure Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Infrastructure stocks with 13-model coverage

RAMPLiveRamp Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1OSPNOneSpan Inc.QOC 9.0GDDYGoDaddy Inc.QOC 9.1PATHUiPath, Inc.QOC 9.0XYZBlock, Inc.QOC 9.1DOCNDigitalOcean Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.0CINTCI&T Inc.QOC 7.6CRWVCoreWeave, Inc.QOC 5.7ZENAZenaTech, Inc.QOC 4.5FTNTFortinet, Inc.QOC 9.7QLYSQualys, Inc.QOC 9.7

Read investment analysis: RAMP · OSPN · GDDY · PATH · XYZ · DOCN · CINT · CRWV · ZENA · FTNT · QLYS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CHKP?

6 companies across all industries closest to CHKP’s Quality of Company score of 9.0/10.

REPXRiley Exploration Permian, Inc.QOC 9.0ECEcopetrol S.A.QOC 9.0CDECoeur Mining, Inc.QOC 9.0ELMDElectromed, Inc.QOC 9.0JNJJohnson & JohnsonQOC 9.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: REPX · EC · CDE · ELMD · JNJ · NVDA

Where Does CHKP Sit in CirclFi's Software - Infrastructure Rankings?

CHKP is ranked against every other Software - Infrastructure stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Infrastructure stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Check Point Software Technologies Ltd.’s Valuation?

What is Check Point Software Technologies Ltd.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (CHKP)'s intrinsic value at $191.74 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $86.33 to $336.88. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $181.80 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CHKP overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $133.23, 9 of 10 active models suggest CHKP may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $191.74, 43.9% above the current price of $133.23 — a consensus view that CHKP is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Check Point Software Technologies Ltd.'s business model in Software - Infrastructure.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.0 mean for CHKP?

Check Point Software Technologies Ltd.'s QOC of 9.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CHKP?

CirclFi analyzes CHKP with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CHKP?

Of the 10 models currently active on CHKP, Markov DDM is the most bullish at $336.88 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $86.33. CirclFi's published fair value for CHKP is the median of that range, $191.74, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 131% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CHKP a value trap in 2026?

Check Point Software Technologies Ltd.'s Value Trap score is 26/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (CHKP) has a median fair value of $191.74 — 43.9% above the current price of $133.23 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CHKP/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CHKP valuation

Market data for CHKP as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 10 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on CHKP.

Unlock All 10 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

6 models hidden for CHKP Unlock All 10 — $39/mo