OneSpan Inc. (OSPN) Fair Value 2026

OSPN · Software - Infrastructure ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, OneSpan Inc. (OSPN) trades at $16.46, versus a $12.02 median fair value across its 10 active models — 27.0% below the current price. QOC: 9.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $5.70.

Key Facts

Ticker
OSPN
Price
$16.46
Quality Score
9.0/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 9.0/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is OneSpan Inc. (OSPN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, OneSpan Inc. (OSPN) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $12.02, 27.0% below the current price of $16.46. Estimates range from $2.06 to $29.49. OSPN scores 9.0/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. OSPN’s -27.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Software - Infrastructure sector median is -22.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy OneSpan Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give OSPN?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($16.46)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $5.70 -65.4%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $16.39 -0.4%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $12.15 -26.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $8.36 -49.2%
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What Is OSPN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $2.06 to $29.49

CirclFi's 10 active models place OneSpan Inc. (OSPN) between $2.06 and $29.49 per share, a spread of 228% of the median. The median of that range — $12.02 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for OSPN, against a current price of $16.46.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · Sentiment SOTP
$2.06median $12.02$29.49
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$2.06
Most bullish modelSentiment SOTP$29.49
Model agreement3 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for OSPN. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on OSPN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is OneSpan Inc. (OSPN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, OneSpan Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $12.02. Trading at $16.46, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -27.0%), as 6 of 10 models suggest limited further upside. Model dispersion is worth noting: Sentiment SOTP targets $29.49 (+79.2%), versus Dynamic NAV at $2.06 (-87.5%). This +166.7% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About OSPN?

10 of 13 models are currently active for OSPN. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for OSPN is $12.02 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $5.70 on its own, implying -65.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does OSPN Rank in Software - Infrastructure?

Among 186 Software - Infrastructure stocks, OSPN ranks #14 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.0 places OSPN in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Infrastructure Stocks →

The Software - Infrastructure sector introduces analytical considerations specific to digital enterprise businesses. For OneSpan Inc., metrics like rule of 40 score provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is OSPN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns OSPN a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for OneSpan Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, OneSpan Inc. scores 9.0 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a elite rating that ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +166.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every OSPN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across OSPN's 10 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy OneSpan Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Infrastructure Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Infrastructure stocks with 13-model coverage

CHKPCheck Point Software Technologies Ltd.QOC 9.0PATHUiPath, Inc.QOC 9.0RAMPLiveRamp Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1DOCNDigitalOcean Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.0GDDYGoDaddy Inc.QOC 9.1OKTAOkta, Inc.QOC 9.0WIXWix.com Ltd.QOC 7.6GRRRGorilla Technology Group Inc.QOC 5.7INFQInfleqtion, Inc.QOC 4.4FTNTFortinet, Inc.QOC 9.7QLYSQualys, Inc.QOC 9.7

Read investment analysis: CHKP · PATH · RAMP · DOCN · GDDY · OKTA · WIX · GRRR · INFQ · FTNT · QLYS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to OSPN?

6 companies across all industries closest to OSPN’s Quality of Company score of 9.0/10.

ECEcopetrol S.A.QOC 9.0JNJJohnson & JohnsonQOC 9.0HGHamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.QOC 9.0REPXRiley Exploration Permian, Inc.QOC 9.0PPCPilgrim's Pride CorporationQOC 9.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: EC · JNJ · HG · REPX · PPC · NVDA

Where Does OSPN Sit in CirclFi's Software - Infrastructure Rankings?

OSPN is ranked against every other Software - Infrastructure stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Infrastructure stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About OneSpan Inc.’s Valuation?

What is OneSpan Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts OneSpan Inc. (OSPN)'s intrinsic value at $12.02 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $2.06 to $29.49. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $5.70 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is OSPN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $16.46, 3 of 10 active models suggest OSPN may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $12.02, 27.0% below the current price of $16.46 — a consensus view that OSPN is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits OneSpan Inc.'s business model in Software - Infrastructure.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.0 mean for OSPN?

OneSpan Inc.'s QOC of 9.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on OSPN?

CirclFi analyzes OSPN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on OSPN?

Of the 10 models currently active on OSPN, Sentiment SOTP is the most bullish at $29.49 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $2.06. CirclFi's published fair value for OSPN is the median of that range, $12.02, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 228% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is OSPN a value trap in 2026?

OneSpan Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, OneSpan Inc. (OSPN) has a median fair value of $12.02 — 27.0% below the current price of $16.46 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/OSPN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this OSPN valuation
  • Financial statements: OneSpan Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001044777) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for OSPN as of ; valuations recomputed .

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