Leidos Holdings, Inc. (LDOS) Fair Value 2026

LDOS · Information Technology Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (14/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Leidos Holdings, Inc. (LDOS) trades at $139.86, versus a $186.95 median fair value across its 12 active models — 33.7% above the current price. QOC: 8.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 14/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $335.24.

Key Facts

Ticker
LDOS
Price
$139.86
Quality Score
8.9/10
Value Trap Risk
14/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +139.7% upside with 76% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Is Leidos Holdings, Inc. (LDOS) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Leidos Holdings, Inc. (LDOS) appears undervalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $186.95, 33.7% above the current price of $139.86. Estimates range from $77.90 to $335.24. LDOS scores 8.9/10 on fundamental quality and 14/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. LDOS’s +33.7% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Information Technology Services sector median is +4.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Leidos Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give LDOS?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($139.86)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $335.24 +139.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $97.12 -30.6%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $181.27 +29.6%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $227.29 +62.5%
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What Is LDOS's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $77.90 to $335.24

CirclFi's 12 active models place Leidos Holdings, Inc. (LDOS) between $77.90 and $335.24 per share, a spread of 138% of the median. The median of that range — $186.95 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for LDOS, against a current price of $139.86.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Bayesian DCF
$77.90median $186.95$335.24
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$77.90
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$335.24
Model agreement7 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for LDOS. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on LDOS, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Leidos Holdings, Inc. (LDOS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on Leidos Holdings, Inc. at $139.86. With an estimated intrinsic value of $186.95 and 7 of 12 models pointing higher, the median implied return is +33.7%. The most optimistic model, Bayesian DCF, places fair value at $335.24 (+139.7%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $77.90 (-44.3%). This +184.0% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Leidos Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About LDOS?

12 of 13 models are currently active for LDOS. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for LDOS is $186.95 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $335.24 on its own, implying +139.7% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does LDOS Rank in Information Technology Services?

Among 83 Information Technology Services stocks, LDOS ranks #8 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.9 places LDOS in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Information Technology Services Stocks →

Leidos Holdings, Inc.'s positioning within the Information Technology Services segment means that annual recurring revenue (ARR) plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including platform stickiness — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is LDOS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns LDOS a score of 14/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Leidos Holdings, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Leidos Holdings, Inc. earns a quality score of 8.9/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +184.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every LDOS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across LDOS's 12 active models, average confidence is 58%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Leidos Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Information Technology Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Information Technology Services stocks with 13-model coverage

BRBroadridge Financial Solutions, Inc.QOC 8.9ACNAccenture plcQOC 8.8GGenpact LimitedQOC 9.0CTSHCognizant Technology Solutions CorporationQOC 8.8JKHYJack Henry & Associates, Inc.QOC 9.0TASKTaskUs, Inc.QOC 8.8ASFHAsiaFIN Holdings Corp.QOC 7.6WYFIWhiteFiber, Inc.QOC 5.9MITIMitesco, Inc.QOC 4.1INODInnodata Inc.QOC 9.3ITGartner, Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: BR · ACN · G · CTSH · JKHY · TASK · ASFH · WYFI · MITI · INOD · IT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to LDOS?

7 companies across all industries closest to LDOS’s Quality of Company score of 8.9/10.

URBNUrban Outfitters, Inc.QOC 8.9GRBKGreen Brick Partners, Inc.QOC 8.9SMSM Energy CompanyQOC 8.9DUOLDuolingo, Inc.QOC 8.9BCPCBalchem CorporationQOC 8.9WTFCWintrust Financial CorporationQOC 8.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: URBN · GRBK · SM · DUOL · BCPC · WTFC · NVDA

Where Does LDOS Sit in CirclFi's Information Technology Services Rankings?

LDOS is ranked against every other Information Technology Services stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Information Technology Services stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Leidos Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Leidos Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Leidos Holdings, Inc. (LDOS)'s intrinsic value at $186.95 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $77.90 to $335.24. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $335.24 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is LDOS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $139.86, 7 of 12 active models suggest LDOS may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $186.95, 33.7% above the current price of $139.86 — a consensus view that LDOS is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Leidos Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Information Technology Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.9 mean for LDOS?

Leidos Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 8.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on LDOS?

CirclFi analyzes LDOS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on LDOS?

Of the 12 models currently active on LDOS, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $335.24 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $77.90. CirclFi's published fair value for LDOS is the median of that range, $186.95, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 138% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is LDOS a value trap in 2026?

Leidos Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 14/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Leidos Holdings, Inc. (LDOS) has a median fair value of $186.95 — 33.7% above the current price of $139.86 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/LDOS/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this LDOS valuation
  • Financial statements: Leidos Holdings, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001336920) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for LDOS as of ; valuations recomputed .

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