Penguin Solutions, Inc. (PENG) Fair Value 2026

PENG · Information Technology Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Penguin Solutions, Inc. (PENG) trades at $49.51, versus a $13.50 median fair value across its 9 active models — 72.7% below the current price. QOC: 8.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $6.98.

Key Facts

Ticker
PENG
Price
$49.51
Quality Score
8.2/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.2/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Penguin Solutions, Inc. (PENG) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Penguin Solutions, Inc. (PENG) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $13.50, 72.7% below the current price of $49.51. Estimates range from $2.87 to $62.48. PENG scores 8.2/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. PENG’s -72.7% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Information Technology Services sector median is +1.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Penguin Solutions, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give PENG?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($49.51)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $6.98 -85.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $13.50 -72.7%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $30.15 -39.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $6.07 -87.7%
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What Is PENG's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $2.87 to $62.48

CirclFi's 9 active models place Penguin Solutions, Inc. (PENG) between $2.87 and $62.48 per share, a spread of 442% of the median. The median of that range — $13.50 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for PENG, against a current price of $49.51.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$2.87median $13.50$62.48
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$2.87
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$62.48
Model agreement1 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for PENG. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on PENG, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Penguin Solutions, Inc. (PENG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Penguin Solutions, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $13.50. Trading at its current price of $49.51, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 8 of 9 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -72.7%. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +26.2% (fair value: $62.48), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -94.2% ($2.87). The spread between these extremes — +120.4% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About PENG?

9 of 13 models are currently active for PENG. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for PENG is $13.50 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $6.98 on its own, implying -85.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does PENG Rank in Information Technology Services?

Among 83 Information Technology Services stocks, PENG ranks #21 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.2 places PENG in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Information Technology Services Stocks →

The Information Technology Services sector introduces analytical considerations specific to software business businesses. For Penguin Solutions, Inc., metrics like rule of 40 score provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is PENG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns PENG a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Penguin Solutions, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Penguin Solutions, Inc. scores 8.2 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +120.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every PENG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across PENG's 9 active models, average confidence is 48%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Penguin Solutions, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Information Technology Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Information Technology Services stocks with 13-model coverage

VRRMVerra Mobility CorporationQOC 8.2CDWCDW CorporationQOC 8.1EPAMEPAM Systems, Inc.QOC 8.2CACICACI International IncQOC 8.0TSSITSS, Inc.QOC 8.3IIIInformation Services Group, Inc.QOC 8.0TTGTTechTarget, Inc.QOC 6.4CIFRCipher Digital Inc.QOC 5.1AIOSAIOS Tech Inc.QOC 2.4INODInnodata Inc.QOC 9.3ITGartner, Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: VRRM · CDW · EPAM · CACI · TSSI · III · TTGT · CIFR · AIOS · INOD · IT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to PENG?

7 companies across all industries closest to PENG’s Quality of Company score of 8.2/10.

MCFTMasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.2SGUStar Group, L.P.QOC 8.2CCUCompañía Cervecerías Unidas S.A.QOC 8.2HDBHDFC Bank LimitedQOC 8.2ARIApollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.QOC 8.2SBLKStar Bulk Carriers Corp.QOC 8.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: MCFT · SGU · CCU · HDB · ARI · SBLK · NVDA

Where Does PENG Sit in CirclFi's Information Technology Services Rankings?

PENG is ranked against every other Information Technology Services stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Information Technology Services stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Penguin Solutions, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Penguin Solutions, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Penguin Solutions, Inc. (PENG)'s intrinsic value at $13.50 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $2.87 to $62.48. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $6.98 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is PENG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $49.51, 1 of 9 active models suggest PENG may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $13.50, 72.7% below the current price of $49.51 — a consensus view that PENG is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Penguin Solutions, Inc.'s business model in Information Technology Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.2 mean for PENG?

Penguin Solutions, Inc.'s QOC of 8.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on PENG?

CirclFi analyzes PENG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on PENG?

Of the 9 models currently active on PENG, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $62.48 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $2.87. CirclFi's published fair value for PENG is the median of that range, $13.50, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 442% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is PENG a value trap in 2026?

Penguin Solutions, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Penguin Solutions, Inc. (PENG) has a median fair value of $13.50 — 72.7% below the current price of $49.51 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/PENG/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this PENG valuation
  • Financial statements: Penguin Solutions, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001616533) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for PENG as of ; valuations recomputed .

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