Penguin Solutions, Inc. (PENG) Fair Value 2026

PENG · Semiconductors & Related Devices ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (32/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, Penguin Solutions, Inc. (PENG) trades at $77.80, approximately 434% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $14.58. QOC: 8.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 32/100 (LOW). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
PENG
Price
$77.80
Quality Score
8.1/10
Value Trap Risk
32/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.1/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($77.80)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$14.58 -81.3%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$3.42 -95.6%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$24.82 -68.1%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$11.42 -85.3%

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What Is Penguin Solutions, Inc. (PENG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Penguin Solutions, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $27.08. Trading at its current price of $77.80, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 13 of 13 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -65.2%. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at -6.0% (fair value: $73.15), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -97.2% ($2.17). The spread between these extremes — +91.2% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About PENG?

13 of 13 models are currently active for PENG. All 13 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. The Bayesian DCF estimates PENG's intrinsic value at $14.58, implying -81.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does PENG Rank in Semiconductors & Related Devices?

Among 95 Semiconductors & Related Devices stocks, PENG ranks #33 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.1 places PENG in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Semiconductors & Related Devices Stocks →

The Semiconductors & Related Devices sector introduces analytical considerations specific to chip maker businesses. For Penguin Solutions, Inc., metrics like gross margin trajectory provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is PENG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns PENG a score of 32/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Penguin Solutions, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Penguin Solutions, Inc. scores 8.1 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +91.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every PENG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across PENG's 13 active models, average confidence is 48%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Penguin Solutions, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Semiconductors & Related Devices Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Semiconductors & Related Devices stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: AMAT · AVGO · CRDO · CRUS · MPWR

See all Semiconductors & Related Devices stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Penguin Solutions, Inc.

What is Penguin Solutions, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Penguin Solutions, Inc. (PENG) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $14.58. The Quality of Company score is 8.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is PENG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $77.80, 0 of 13 active models suggest PENG may be undervalued, while 13 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Penguin Solutions, Inc.'s business model in Semiconductors & Related Devices.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.1 mean for PENG?

Penguin Solutions, Inc.'s QOC of 8.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on PENG?

CirclFi analyzes PENG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is PENG a value trap in 2026?

Penguin Solutions, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 32/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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