Star Group, L.P. (SGU) Fair Value 2026

SGU · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Star Group, L.P. (SGU) trades at $12.62, versus a $28.49 median fair value across its 11 active models — 125.7% above the current price. QOC: 8.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $17.51.

Key Facts

Ticker
SGU
Price
$12.62
Quality Score
8.2/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +126.5% upside with 23% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Is Star Group, L.P. (SGU) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Star Group, L.P. (SGU) appears undervalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $28.49, 125.7% above the current price of $12.62. Estimates range from $15.96 to $55.40. SGU scores 8.2/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. SGU’s +125.7% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing sector median is -22.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Star Group, L.P. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SGU?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($12.62)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $17.51 +38.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $21.34 +69.1%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $28.58 +126.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $18.19 +44.1%
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What Is SGU's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $15.96 to $55.40

CirclFi's 11 active models place Star Group, L.P. (SGU) between $15.96 and $55.40 per share, a spread of 138% of the median. The median of that range — $28.49 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for SGU, against a current price of $12.62.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · ML-RIV
$15.96median $28.49$55.40
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$15.96
Most bullish modelML Residual Income$55.40
Model agreement11 bullish · 0 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for SGU. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on SGU, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Star Group, L.P. (SGU) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Star Group, L.P. is potentially undervalued at its current price of $12.62. Based on our 13-model framework, Star Group, L.P.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $28.49 — representing +125.7% implied upside — with 11 out of 11 active models confirming this thesis. Model dispersion is worth noting: ML-RIV targets $55.40 (+339.0%), versus Markov DDM at $15.96 (+26.4%). This +312.5% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About SGU?

11 of 13 models are currently active for SGU. All 11 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for SGU is $28.49 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $17.51 on its own, implying +38.8% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SGU Rank in Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing?

Among 18 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing stocks, SGU ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.2 places SGU in the top tier.

As a energy producer, Star Group, L.P. operates in a sector where debt-to-EBITDAX is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating SGU should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is SGU a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SGU a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Star Group, L.P.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Star Group, L.P. is rated at 8.2/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +312.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SGU valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SGU's 11 active models, average confidence is 48%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Star Group, L.P. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing stocks with 13-model coverage

PSXPhillips 66QOC 8.3DINOHF Sinclair CorporationQOC 8.1VLOValero Energy CorporationQOC 8.4SUNSunoco LPQOC 7.7MPCMarathon Petroleum CorporationQOC 8.5DKDelek US Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.6WKCWorld Kinect CorporationQOC 7.4CLNEClean Energy Fuels Corp.QOC 6.5UGPUltrapar Participações S.A.QOC 8.8PARRPar Pacific Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.6

Read investment analysis: PSX · DINO · VLO · SUN · MPC · DK · WKC · CLNE · UGP · PARR

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SGU?

7 companies across all industries closest to SGU’s Quality of Company score of 8.2/10.

ARIApollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.QOC 8.2MCFTMasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.2CRWDCrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.2PENGPenguin Solutions, Inc.QOC 8.2APLEApple Hospitality REIT, Inc.QOC 8.2HDBHDFC Bank LimitedQOC 8.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ARI · MCFT · CRWD · PENG · APLE · HDB · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Star Group, L.P.’s Valuation?

What is Star Group, L.P.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Star Group, L.P. (SGU)'s intrinsic value at $28.49 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $15.96 to $55.40. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $17.51 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SGU overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $12.62, 11 of 11 active models suggest SGU may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $28.49, 125.7% above the current price of $12.62 — a consensus view that SGU is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Star Group, L.P.'s business model in Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.2 mean for SGU?

Star Group, L.P.'s QOC of 8.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SGU?

CirclFi analyzes SGU with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on SGU?

Of the 11 models currently active on SGU, ML Residual Income is the most bullish at $55.40 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $15.96. CirclFi's published fair value for SGU is the median of that range, $28.49, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 138% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is SGU a value trap in 2026?

Star Group, L.P.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Star Group, L.P. (SGU) has a median fair value of $28.49 — 125.7% above the current price of $12.62 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SGU/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SGU valuation
  • Financial statements: Star Group, L.P. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001002590) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SGU as of ; valuations recomputed .

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