Blue Dolphin Energy Company (BDCO) Fair Value 2026

BDCO · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Blue Dolphin Energy Company (BDCO) trades at $7.11, versus a $5.11 median fair value across its 8 active models — 28.1% below the current price. QOC: 6.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BDCO
Price
$7.11
Quality Score
6.6/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: ML-RIV suggests +409.6% upside with 51% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (8/13) may reduce confidence

Is Blue Dolphin Energy Company (BDCO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Blue Dolphin Energy Company (BDCO) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $5.11, 28.1% below the current price of $7.11. Estimates range from $2.28 to $36.24. BDCO scores 6.6/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. BDCO’s -28.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing sector median is -22.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Blue Dolphin Energy Company Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give BDCO?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($7.11)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $4.63 -34.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $5.60 -21.3%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $7.50 +5.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $36.24 +409.6%
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What Is BDCO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $2.28 to $36.24

CirclFi's 8 active models place Blue Dolphin Energy Company (BDCO) between $2.28 and $36.24 per share, a spread of 664% of the median. The median of that range — $5.11 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for BDCO, against a current price of $7.11.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · ML-RIV
$2.28median $5.11$36.24
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$2.28
Most bullish modelML Residual Income$36.24
Model agreement3 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for BDCO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on BDCO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Blue Dolphin Energy Company (BDCO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Blue Dolphin Energy Company's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $5.11. Trading at $7.11, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -28.1%), as 5 of 8 models suggest limited further upside. Notably, ML-RIV sees the most upside at +409.6% (fair value: $36.24), while Regime Cross is the most conservative at -68.0% ($2.28). The spread between these extremes — +477.6% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About BDCO?

8 of 13 models are currently active for BDCO. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for BDCO is $5.11 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BDCO Rank in Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing?

Among 18 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing stocks, BDCO ranks #13 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.6 indicates above-average quality.

The Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing sector introduces analytical considerations specific to oil and gas company businesses. For Blue Dolphin Energy Company, metrics like capital efficiency ratio provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is BDCO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BDCO a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Blue Dolphin Energy Company. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Blue Dolphin Energy Company scores 6.6 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +477.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BDCO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BDCO's 8 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Blue Dolphin Energy Company Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing stocks with 13-model coverage

DKLDelek Logistics Partners, LPQOC 6.8CSANCosan S.A.QOC 6.6CAPLCrossAmerica Partners LPQOC 7.1CLNEClean Energy Fuels Corp.QOC 6.5WKCWorld Kinect CorporationQOC 7.4FGPRFerrellgas Partners, L.P.QOC 6.0APCARKO Petroleum Corp.QOC 4.5VLOValero Energy CorporationQOC 8.4SUNSunoco LPQOC 7.7UGPUltrapar Participações S.A.QOC 8.8PARRPar Pacific Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.6

Read investment analysis: DKL · CSAN · CAPL · CLNE · WKC · FGPR · APC · VLO · SUN · UGP · PARR

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to BDCO?

7 companies across all industries closest to BDCO’s Quality of Company score of 6.6/10.

PYYXPyxus International, Inc.QOC 6.6BOCBoston Omaha CorporationQOC 6.6CNXCConcentrix CorporationQOC 6.6AAOIApplied Optoelectronics, Inc.QOC 6.6AKBAAkebia Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 6.6AXSMAxsome Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 6.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PYYX · BOC · CNXC · AAOI · AKBA · AXSM · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Blue Dolphin Energy Company’s Valuation?

What is Blue Dolphin Energy Company's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Blue Dolphin Energy Company (BDCO)'s intrinsic value at $5.11 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $2.28 to $36.24. The Quality of Company score is 6.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BDCO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $7.11, 3 of 8 active models suggest BDCO may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $5.11, 28.1% below the current price of $7.11 — a consensus view that BDCO is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Blue Dolphin Energy Company's business model in Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.6 mean for BDCO?

Blue Dolphin Energy Company's QOC of 6.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BDCO?

CirclFi analyzes BDCO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on BDCO?

Of the 8 models currently active on BDCO, ML Residual Income is the most bullish at $36.24 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $2.28. CirclFi's published fair value for BDCO is the median of that range, $5.11, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 664% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is BDCO a value trap in 2026?

Blue Dolphin Energy Company's Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Blue Dolphin Energy Company (BDCO) has a median fair value of $5.11 — 28.1% below the current price of $7.11 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BDCO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this BDCO valuation
  • Financial statements: Blue Dolphin Energy Company 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000793306) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for BDCO as of ; valuations recomputed .

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