Verra Mobility Corporation (VRRM) Fair Value 2026

VRRM · Information Technology Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Verra Mobility Corporation (VRRM) trades at $2.82, versus a $9.54 median fair value across its 9 active models — 238.3% above the current price. QOC: 8.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $10.63.

Key Facts

Ticker
VRRM
Price
$2.82
Quality Score
8.2/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +283.2% upside with 16% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (9/13) may reduce confidence

Is Verra Mobility Corporation (VRRM) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Verra Mobility Corporation (VRRM) appears undervalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $9.54, 238.3% above the current price of $2.82. Estimates range from $2.67 to $11.56. VRRM scores 8.2/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. VRRM’s +238.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Information Technology Services sector median is +5.3%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Verra Mobility Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give VRRM?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($2.82)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $10.63 +276.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $8.52 +202.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $10.80 +283.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $5.00 +77.5%
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What Is VRRM's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $2.67 to $11.56

CirclFi's 9 active models place Verra Mobility Corporation (VRRM) between $2.67 and $11.56 per share, a spread of 93% of the median. The median of that range — $9.54 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for VRRM, against a current price of $2.82.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$2.67median $9.54$11.56
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$2.67
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$11.56
Model agreement8 bullish · 1 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on VRRM, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Verra Mobility Corporation (VRRM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for Verra Mobility Corporation. Trading at $2.82 against an estimated intrinsic value of $9.54, 8 of 9 active models flag meaningful upside of +238.3% at the median. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $11.56 (+309.9%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $2.67 (-5.4%). This +315.4% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Verra Mobility Corporation's intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About VRRM?

9 of 13 models are currently active for VRRM. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for VRRM is $9.54 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $10.63 on its own, implying +276.9% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does VRRM Rank in Information Technology Services?

Among 87 Information Technology Services stocks, VRRM ranks #20 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.2 places VRRM in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Information Technology Services Stocks →

As a technology sector, Verra Mobility Corporation operates in a sector where annual recurring revenue (ARR) is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating VRRM should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is VRRM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns VRRM a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Verra Mobility Corporation. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Verra Mobility Corporation's fundamental quality profile registers 8.2/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +315.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every VRRM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across VRRM's 9 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Verra Mobility Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Information Technology Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Information Technology Services stocks with 13-model coverage

EPAMEPAM Systems, Inc.QOC 8.2PENGPenguin Solutions, Inc.QOC 8.2TSSITSS, Inc.QOC 8.3CDWCDW CorporationQOC 8.1WITWipro LimitedQOC 8.3CACICACI International IncQOC 8.0UISUnisys CorporationQOC 6.5DAICCID HoldCo, Inc.QOC 5.3HKITBiddance AI Systems, Inc.QOC 2.5INODInnodata Inc.QOC 9.3ITGartner, Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: EPAM · PENG · TSSI · CDW · WIT · CACI · UIS · DAIC · HKIT · INOD · IT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to VRRM?

7 companies across all industries closest to VRRM’s Quality of Company score of 8.2/10.

VOYAVoya Financial, Inc.QOC 8.2FBRTFranklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 8.2OOMAOoma, Inc.QOC 8.2GATXGATX CorporationQOC 8.2KDPKeurig Dr Pepper Inc.QOC 8.2XYFX FinancialQOC 8.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: VOYA · FBRT · OOMA · GATX · KDP · XYF · NVDA

Where Does VRRM Sit in CirclFi's Information Technology Services Rankings?

VRRM is ranked against every other Information Technology Services stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Information Technology Services stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Verra Mobility Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Verra Mobility Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Verra Mobility Corporation (VRRM)'s intrinsic value at $9.54 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $2.67 to $11.56. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $10.63 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is VRRM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $2.82, 8 of 9 active models suggest VRRM may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $9.54, 238.3% above the current price of $2.82 — a consensus view that VRRM is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Verra Mobility Corporation's business model in Information Technology Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.2 mean for VRRM?

Verra Mobility Corporation's QOC of 8.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on VRRM?

CirclFi analyzes VRRM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on VRRM?

Of the 9 models currently active on VRRM, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $11.56 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $2.67. CirclFi's published fair value for VRRM is the median of that range, $9.54, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 93% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is VRRM a value trap in 2026?

Verra Mobility Corporation's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Verra Mobility Corporation (VRRM) has a median fair value of $9.54 — 238.3% above the current price of $2.82 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/VRRM/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this VRRM valuation
  • Financial statements: Verra Mobility Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001682745) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for VRRM as of ; valuations recomputed .

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