Verra Mobility Corporation (VRRM) Fair Value 2026

VRRM · Transportation Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Verra Mobility Corporation (VRRM) trades at $4.52, approximately 76% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $19.15. QOC: 8.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
VRRM
Price
$4.52
Quality Score
8.8/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +323.7% upside with 61% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($4.52)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$19.15 +323.7%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$11.33 +150.7%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$12.99 +187.5%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$10.48 +131.9%

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What Is Verra Mobility Corporation (VRRM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for Verra Mobility Corporation. Trading at $4.52 against an estimated intrinsic value of $11.21, 10 of 11 active models flag meaningful upside of +148.1% on average. The most optimistic model, RCMH-DCF, places fair value at $21.16 (+368.0%), while Sentiment SOTP — the most conservative — estimates $0.42 (-90.6%). This +458.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Verra Mobility Corporation's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About VRRM?

11 of 13 models are currently active for VRRM. Of these, 10 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates VRRM's intrinsic value at $19.15, implying +323.7% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does VRRM Rank in Transportation Services?

Among 18 Transportation Services stocks, VRRM ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.8 places VRRM in the top tier.

As a automotive sector, Verra Mobility Corporation operates in a sector where units delivered is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating VRRM should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is VRRM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns VRRM a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Verra Mobility Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Verra Mobility Corporation's fundamental quality profile registers 8.8/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +458.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every VRRM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across VRRM's 11 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Verra Mobility Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Transportation Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Transportation Services stocks with 13-model coverage

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Frequently Asked Questions About Verra Mobility Corporation

What is Verra Mobility Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Verra Mobility Corporation (VRRM) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $19.15. The Quality of Company score is 8.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is VRRM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $4.52, 10 of 11 active models suggest VRRM may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Verra Mobility Corporation's business model in Transportation Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.8 mean for VRRM?

Verra Mobility Corporation's QOC of 8.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on VRRM?

CirclFi analyzes VRRM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is VRRM a value trap in 2026?

Verra Mobility Corporation's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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