Twilio Inc. (TWLO) Fair Value 2026

TWLO · Software - Infrastructure ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (23/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Twilio Inc. (TWLO) trades at $237.78, versus a $63.72 median fair value across its 10 active models — 73.2% below the current price. QOC: 8.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 23/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $83.14.

Key Facts

Ticker
TWLO
Price
$237.78
Quality Score
8.8/10
Value Trap Risk
23/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.8/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Twilio Inc. (TWLO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Twilio Inc. (TWLO) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $63.72, 73.2% below the current price of $237.78. Estimates range from $28.98 to $177.24. TWLO scores 8.8/10 on fundamental quality and 23/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. TWLO’s -73.2% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Software - Infrastructure sector median is -23.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Twilio Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TWLO?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($237.78)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $83.14 -65.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $67.99 -71.4%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $48.48 -79.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $28.98 -87.8%
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What Is TWLO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $28.98 to $177.24

CirclFi's 10 active models place Twilio Inc. (TWLO) between $28.98 and $177.24 per share, a spread of 233% of the median. The median of that range — $63.72 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TWLO, against a current price of $237.78.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$28.98median $63.72$177.24
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$28.98
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$177.24
Model agreement0 bullish · 10 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for TWLO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TWLO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Twilio Inc. (TWLO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Twilio Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $63.72. Trading at its current price of $237.78, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 10 of 10 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -73.2%. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $177.24 (-25.5%), versus ML-RIV at $28.98 (-87.8%). This +62.4% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About TWLO?

10 of 13 models are currently active for TWLO. All 10 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for TWLO is $63.72 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $83.14 on its own, implying -65.0% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TWLO Rank in Software - Infrastructure?

Among 189 Software - Infrastructure stocks, TWLO ranks #21 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.8 places TWLO in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Infrastructure Stocks →

The Software - Infrastructure sector introduces analytical considerations specific to digital enterprise businesses. For Twilio Inc., metrics like gross margin profile provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is TWLO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TWLO a score of 23/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Twilio Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Twilio Inc. scores 8.8 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +62.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TWLO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TWLO's 10 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Twilio Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Infrastructure Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Infrastructure stocks with 13-model coverage

SNPSSynopsys, Inc.QOC 8.8PANWPalo Alto Networks, Inc.QOC 8.8TOSTToast, Inc.QOC 8.9TUYATuya Inc.QOC 8.7PAYPaymentus Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.9NTCTNetScout Systems, Inc.QOC 8.6FATNFatPipe, Inc.QOC 7.2BLSHBullishQOC 5.6AIXCAIxCrypto Holdings, Inc.QOC 4.0FTNTFortinet, Inc.QOC 9.7QLYSQualys, Inc.QOC 9.7

Read investment analysis: SNPS · PANW · TOST · TUYA · PAY · NTCT · FATN · BLSH · AIXC · FTNT · QLYS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TWLO?

6 companies across all industries closest to TWLO’s Quality of Company score of 8.8/10.

TTDThe Trade Desk, Inc.QOC 8.8LMBLimbach Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.8EOGEOG Resources, Inc.QOC 8.8INGRIngredion IncorporatedQOC 8.8COLLCollegium Pharmaceutical, Inc.QOC 8.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: TTD · LMB · EOG · INGR · COLL · NVDA

Where Does TWLO Sit in CirclFi's Software - Infrastructure Rankings?

TWLO is ranked against every other Software - Infrastructure stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Infrastructure stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Twilio Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Twilio Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Twilio Inc. (TWLO)'s intrinsic value at $63.72 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $28.98 to $177.24. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $83.14 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TWLO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $237.78, 0 of 10 active models suggest TWLO may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $63.72, 73.2% below the current price of $237.78 — a consensus view that TWLO is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Twilio Inc.'s business model in Software - Infrastructure.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.8 mean for TWLO?

Twilio Inc.'s QOC of 8.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TWLO?

CirclFi analyzes TWLO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TWLO?

Of the 10 models currently active on TWLO, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $177.24 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $28.98. CirclFi's published fair value for TWLO is the median of that range, $63.72, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 233% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TWLO a value trap in 2026?

Twilio Inc.'s Value Trap score is 23/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Twilio Inc. (TWLO) has a median fair value of $63.72 — 73.2% below the current price of $237.78 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TWLO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TWLO valuation
  • Financial statements: Twilio Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001447669) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TWLO as of ; valuations recomputed .

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