Toast, Inc. (TOST) Fair Value 2026

TOST · Software - Infrastructure ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Toast, Inc. (TOST) trades at $35.15, versus a $14.79 median fair value across its 8 active models — 57.9% below the current price. QOC: 8.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $18.02.

Key Facts

Ticker
TOST
Price
$35.15
Quality Score
8.9/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.9/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Toast, Inc. (TOST) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Toast, Inc. (TOST) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $14.79, 57.9% below the current price of $35.15. Estimates range from $6.57 to $46.85. TOST scores 8.9/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. TOST’s -57.9% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Software - Infrastructure sector median is -23.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Toast, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TOST?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($35.15)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $18.02 -48.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $14.17 -59.7%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $15.41 -56.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $9.12 -74.1%
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What Is TOST's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $6.57 to $46.85

CirclFi's 8 active models place Toast, Inc. (TOST) between $6.57 and $46.85 per share, a spread of 272% of the median. The median of that range — $14.79 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TOST, against a current price of $35.15.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$6.57median $14.79$46.85
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$6.57
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$46.85
Model agreement1 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for TOST. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TOST, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Toast, Inc. (TOST) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Toast, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $14.79. Trading at its current price of $35.15, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 7 of 8 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -57.9%. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $46.85 (+33.3%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $6.57 (-81.3%). This +114.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Toast, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About TOST?

8 of 13 models are currently active for TOST. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for TOST is $14.79 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $18.02 on its own, implying -48.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TOST Rank in Software - Infrastructure?

Among 189 Software - Infrastructure stocks, TOST ranks #19 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.9 places TOST in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Infrastructure Stocks →

Toast, Inc.'s positioning within the Software - Infrastructure segment means that free cash flow margin plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including AI/ML integration — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is TOST a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TOST a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Toast, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Toast, Inc. earns a quality score of 8.9/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +114.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TOST valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TOST's 8 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Toast, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Infrastructure Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Infrastructure stocks with 13-model coverage

PAYPaymentus Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.9SNPSSynopsys, Inc.QOC 8.8OKTAOkta, Inc.QOC 9.0TWLOTwilio Inc.QOC 8.8DOCNDigitalOcean Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.0PANWPalo Alto Networks, Inc.QOC 8.8GTLBGitLab Inc.QOC 7.4MOVECorvex, Inc.QOC 5.6CYABCyabra, Inc.QOC 4.0FTNTFortinet, Inc.QOC 9.7QLYSQualys, Inc.QOC 9.7

Read investment analysis: PAY · SNPS · OKTA · TWLO · DOCN · PANW · GTLB · MOVE · CYAB · FTNT · QLYS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TOST?

7 companies across all industries closest to TOST’s Quality of Company score of 8.9/10.

BYByline Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.9CQPCheniere Energy Partners, L.P.QOC 8.9CLHClean Harbors, Inc.QOC 8.9SEICSEI Investments CompanyQOC 8.9FASTFastenal CompanyQOC 8.9MTRNMaterion CorporationQOC 8.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BY · CQP · CLH · SEIC · FAST · MTRN · NVDA

Where Does TOST Sit in CirclFi's Software - Infrastructure Rankings?

TOST is ranked against every other Software - Infrastructure stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Infrastructure stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Toast, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Toast, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Toast, Inc. (TOST)'s intrinsic value at $14.79 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $6.57 to $46.85. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $18.02 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TOST overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $35.15, 1 of 8 active models suggest TOST may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $14.79, 57.9% below the current price of $35.15 — a consensus view that TOST is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Toast, Inc.'s business model in Software - Infrastructure.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.9 mean for TOST?

Toast, Inc.'s QOC of 8.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TOST?

CirclFi analyzes TOST with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TOST?

Of the 8 models currently active on TOST, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $46.85 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $6.57. CirclFi's published fair value for TOST is the median of that range, $14.79, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 272% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TOST a value trap in 2026?

Toast, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Toast, Inc. (TOST) has a median fair value of $14.79 — 57.9% below the current price of $35.15 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TOST/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TOST valuation
  • Financial statements: Toast, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001650164) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TOST as of ; valuations recomputed .

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