DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. (DOCN) Fair Value 2026

DOCN · Software - Infrastructure ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (17/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. (DOCN) trades at $121.68, versus a $30.94 median fair value across its 8 active models — 74.6% below the current price. QOC: 9.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 17/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $26.54.

Key Facts

Ticker
DOCN
Price
$121.68
Quality Score
9.0/10
Value Trap Risk
17/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 9.0/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. (DOCN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. (DOCN) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $30.94, 74.6% below the current price of $121.68. Estimates range from $11.28 to $48.07. DOCN scores 9.0/10 on fundamental quality and 17/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. DOCN’s -74.6% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Software - Infrastructure sector median is -22.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give DOCN?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($121.68)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $26.54 -78.2%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $28.45 -76.6%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $48.07 -60.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $12.37 -89.8%
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What Is DOCN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $11.28 to $48.07

CirclFi's 8 active models place DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. (DOCN) between $11.28 and $48.07 per share, a spread of 119% of the median. The median of that range — $30.94 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for DOCN, against a current price of $121.68.

Low · EROICHigh · First Chicago
$11.28median $30.94$48.07
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$11.28
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$48.07
Model agreement0 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for DOCN. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on DOCN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. (DOCN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $30.94. Trading at its current price of $121.68, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 8 of 8 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -74.6%. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at -60.5% (fair value: $48.07), while EROIC is the most conservative at -90.7% ($11.28). The spread between these extremes — +30.2% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About DOCN?

8 of 13 models are currently active for DOCN. All 8 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for DOCN is $30.94 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $26.54 on its own, implying -78.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does DOCN Rank in Software - Infrastructure?

Among 186 Software - Infrastructure stocks, DOCN ranks #16 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.0 places DOCN in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Infrastructure Stocks →

The Software - Infrastructure sector introduces analytical considerations specific to software business businesses. For DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc., metrics like gross margin profile provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is DOCN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns DOCN a score of 17/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. scores 9.0 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a elite rating that ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +30.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every DOCN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across DOCN's 8 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Infrastructure Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Infrastructure stocks with 13-model coverage

PATHUiPath, Inc.QOC 9.0OKTAOkta, Inc.QOC 9.0OSPNOneSpan Inc.QOC 9.0PAYPaymentus Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.9CHKPCheck Point Software Technologies Ltd.QOC 9.0SNPSSynopsys, Inc.QOC 8.8TENBTenable Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.4APCXAppTech Payments Corp.QOC 5.7SSGCSafeSpace Global CorporationQOC 4.4FTNTFortinet, Inc.QOC 9.7QLYSQualys, Inc.QOC 9.7

Read investment analysis: PATH · OKTA · OSPN · PAY · CHKP · SNPS · TENB · APCX · SSGC · FTNT · QLYS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to DOCN?

7 companies across all industries closest to DOCN’s Quality of Company score of 9.0/10.

AGXArgan, Inc.QOC 9.0SNDKSandisk CorporationQOC 9.0VMIValmont Industries, Inc.QOC 9.0HGTYHagerty, Inc.QOC 9.0ALVAutoliv, Inc.QOC 9.0EGEverest Group, Ltd.QOC 9.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: AGX · SNDK · VMI · HGTY · ALV · EG · NVDA

Where Does DOCN Sit in CirclFi's Software - Infrastructure Rankings?

DOCN is ranked against every other Software - Infrastructure stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Infrastructure stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. (DOCN)'s intrinsic value at $30.94 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $11.28 to $48.07. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $26.54 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is DOCN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $121.68, 0 of 8 active models suggest DOCN may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $30.94, 74.6% below the current price of $121.68 — a consensus view that DOCN is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Software - Infrastructure.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.0 mean for DOCN?

DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 9.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on DOCN?

CirclFi analyzes DOCN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on DOCN?

Of the 8 models currently active on DOCN, First Chicago is the most bullish at $48.07 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $11.28. CirclFi's published fair value for DOCN is the median of that range, $30.94, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 119% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is DOCN a value trap in 2026?

DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 17/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. (DOCN) has a median fair value of $30.94 — 74.6% below the current price of $121.68 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/DOCN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this DOCN valuation
  • Financial statements: DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001582961) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for DOCN as of ; valuations recomputed .

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