Tenable Holdings, Inc. (TENB) Fair Value 2026

TENB · Software - Infrastructure ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (29/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Tenable Holdings, Inc. (TENB) trades at $37.67, versus a $26.61 median fair value across its 7 active models — 29.4% below the current price. QOC: 7.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 29/100 (LOW). 7/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $59.90.

Key Facts

Ticker
TENB
Price
$37.67
Quality Score
7.4/10
Value Trap Risk
29/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +59.0% upside with 71% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Tenable Holdings, Inc. (TENB) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Tenable Holdings, Inc. (TENB) appears overvalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $26.61, 29.4% below the current price of $37.67. Estimates range from $2.39 to $59.90. TENB scores 7.4/10 on fundamental quality and 29/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. TENB’s -29.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Software - Infrastructure sector median is -23.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Tenable Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TENB?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($37.67)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $59.90 +59.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $28.87 -23.4%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $3.23 -91.4%
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What Is TENB's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $2.39 to $59.90

CirclFi's 7 active models place Tenable Holdings, Inc. (TENB) between $2.39 and $59.90 per share, a spread of 216% of the median. The median of that range — $26.61 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TENB, against a current price of $37.67.

Low · Sentiment SOTPHigh · Bayesian DCF
$2.39median $26.61$59.90
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelSentiment SOTP$2.39
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$59.90
Model agreement2 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for TENB. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TENB, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Tenable Holdings, Inc. (TENB) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Tenable Holdings, Inc. at its current price of $37.67. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $26.61 (-29.4% vs price), with 5 models flagging overvaluation risk. The most optimistic model, Bayesian DCF, places fair value at $59.90 (+59.0%), while Sentiment SOTP — the most conservative — estimates $2.39 (-93.7%). This +152.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Tenable Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About TENB?

7 of 13 models are currently active for TENB. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for TENB is $26.61 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $59.90 on its own, implying +59.0% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TENB Rank in Software - Infrastructure?

Among 189 Software - Infrastructure stocks, TENB ranks #64 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.4 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Infrastructure Stocks →

Within the Software - Infrastructure space, Tenable Holdings, Inc. competes in an environment where net revenue retention (NRR) often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is TENB a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TENB a score of 29/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for Tenable Holdings, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Tenable Holdings, Inc. is rated at 7.4/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +152.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TENB valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TENB's 7 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Tenable Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Infrastructure Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Infrastructure stocks with 13-model coverage

HPAIHelport AI LimitedQOC 7.6CGNTCognyte Software Ltd.QOC 7.4WIXWix.com Ltd.QOC 7.6GTLBGitLab Inc.QOC 7.4CINTCI&T Inc.QOC 7.6SKKYSkkynet Cloud Systems, Inc.QOC 7.2GRRRGorilla Technology Group Inc.QOC 5.7RKTORocket One Inc.QOC 4.0DOCNDigitalOcean Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.0FTNTFortinet, Inc.QOC 9.7QLYSQualys, Inc.QOC 9.7

Read investment analysis: HPAI · CGNT · WIX · GTLB · CINT · SKKY · GRRR · RKTO · DOCN · FTNT · QLYS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TENB?

7 companies across all industries closest to TENB’s Quality of Company score of 7.4/10.

TDThe Toronto-Dominion BankQOC 7.4WUThe Western Union CompanyQOC 7.4LAZLazard, Inc.QOC 7.4GOODGladstone Commercial CorporationQOC 7.4CXWCoreCivic, Inc.QOC 7.4BBCPConcrete Pumping Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: TD · WU · LAZ · GOOD · CXW · BBCP · NVDA

Where Does TENB Sit in CirclFi's Software - Infrastructure Rankings?

TENB is ranked against every other Software - Infrastructure stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Infrastructure stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Tenable Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Tenable Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Tenable Holdings, Inc. (TENB)'s intrinsic value at $26.61 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $2.39 to $59.90. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $59.90 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TENB overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $37.67, 2 of 7 active models suggest TENB may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $26.61, 29.4% below the current price of $37.67 — a consensus view that TENB is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Tenable Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Software - Infrastructure.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.4 mean for TENB?

Tenable Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 7.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TENB?

CirclFi analyzes TENB with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TENB?

Of the 7 models currently active on TENB, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $59.90 per share, and Sentiment SOTP is the most bearish at $2.39. CirclFi's published fair value for TENB is the median of that range, $26.61, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 216% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TENB a value trap in 2026?

Tenable Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 29/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Tenable Holdings, Inc. (TENB) has a median fair value of $26.61 — 29.4% below the current price of $37.67 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TENB/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TENB valuation
  • Financial statements: Tenable Holdings, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001660280) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TENB as of ; valuations recomputed .

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