Tenable Holdings, Inc. (TENB) Fair Value 2026

TENB · Services-Prepackaged Software ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

3.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (29/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Tenable Holdings, Inc. (TENB) trades at $40.19, approximately 437% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $7.48. QOC: 3.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 29/100 (LOW). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
TENB
Price
$40.19
Quality Score
3.9/10
Value Trap Risk
29/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: 12 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 3.9/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is Tenable Holdings, Inc. (TENB) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Tenable Holdings, Inc. (TENB) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $7.07, 82.4% below the current price of $40.19. Estimates range from $1.91 to $41.27. TENB scores 3.9/10 on fundamental quality and 29/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Tenable Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($40.19)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
$7.48 -81.4%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$12.74 -68.3%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$7.37 -81.7%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$6.78 -83.1%

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What Is Tenable Holdings, Inc. (TENB) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Tenable Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $12.19, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $40.19. With 11 out of 12 models flagging downside (-69.7% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, RCMH-DCF, places fair value at $41.27 (+2.7%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $1.91 (-95.2%). This +97.9% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Tenable Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About TENB?

12 of 13 models are currently active for TENB. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 11 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates TENB's intrinsic value at $7.48, implying -81.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TENB Rank in Services-Prepackaged Software?

Among 205 Services-Prepackaged Software stocks, TENB ranks #177 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 3.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 3.9 signals below-average fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Services-Prepackaged Software Stocks →

Within the Services-Prepackaged Software space, Tenable Holdings, Inc. competes in an environment where net revenue retention (NRR) often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is TENB a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TENB a score of 29/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Tenable Holdings, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Tenable Holdings, Inc. is rated at 3.9/10. This moderate-tier score shows mixed signals across our quality framework with notable weaknesses.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +97.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TENB valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TENB's 12 active models, average confidence is 35%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Tenable Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Services-Prepackaged Software Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Services-Prepackaged Software stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: CRM · CVLT · EGAN · MANH · MSFT

See all Services-Prepackaged Software stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Tenable Holdings, Inc.

What is Tenable Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Tenable Holdings, Inc. (TENB) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $7.48. The Quality of Company score is 3.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TENB overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $40.19, 1 of 12 active models suggest TENB may be undervalued, while 11 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $7.07, 82.4% below the current price of $40.19 — a consensus view that TENB is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Tenable Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Services-Prepackaged Software.

What does a Quality of Company score of 3.9 mean for TENB?

Tenable Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 3.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TENB?

CirclFi analyzes TENB with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is TENB a value trap in 2026?

Tenable Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 29/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Tenable Holdings, Inc. (TENB) has a median fair value of $7.07 — 82.4% below the current price of $40.19 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TENB/ · Methodology

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