CVS Health Corporation (CVS) Fair Value 2026

CVS · Healthcare Plans ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (20/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, CVS Health Corporation (CVS) trades at $93.06, versus a $92.61 median fair value across its 12 active models — 0.5% below the current price. QOC: 7.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 20/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $73.58.

Key Facts

Ticker
CVS
Price
$93.06
Quality Score
7.4/10
Value Trap Risk
20/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Earnings Power Value suggests +4.4% upside with 83% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Is CVS Health Corporation (CVS) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, CVS Health Corporation (CVS) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $92.61, essentially in line with the current price of $93.06. Estimates range from $15.69 to $253.42. CVS scores 7.4/10 on fundamental quality and 20/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. CVS’s -0.5% gap is narrower than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy CVS Health Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CVS?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($93.06)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $73.58 -20.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $97.15 +4.4%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $89.54 -3.8%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $95.68 +2.8%
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What Is CVS's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $15.69 to $253.42

CirclFi's 12 active models place CVS Health Corporation (CVS) between $15.69 and $253.42 per share, a spread of 257% of the median. The median of that range — $92.61 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CVS, against a current price of $93.06.

Low · Sentiment SOTPHigh · Regime Cross
$15.69median $92.61$253.42
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelSentiment SOTP$15.69
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$253.42
Model agreement4 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CVS. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CVS, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is CVS Health Corporation (CVS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, CVS Health Corporation presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $93.06. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $92.61 (-0.5% median upside), masking a wide model spread between the 4 bullish models and 5 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $253.42 (+172.3%), versus Sentiment SOTP at $15.69 (-83.1%). This +255.5% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About CVS?

12 of 13 models are currently active for CVS. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CVS is $92.61 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $73.58 on its own, implying -20.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CVS Rank in Healthcare Plans?

Among 13 Healthcare Plans stocks, CVS ranks #9 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.4 indicates above-average quality.

The Healthcare Plans sector introduces analytical considerations specific to biopharma enterprise businesses. For CVS Health Corporation, metrics like R&D productivity ratio provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is CVS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CVS a score of 20/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for CVS Health Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, CVS Health Corporation earns a quality score of 7.4/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +255.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CVS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CVS's 12 active models, average confidence is 56%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy CVS Health Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Healthcare Plans Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Healthcare Plans stocks with 13-model coverage

CNCCentene CorporationQOC 7.4ALHCAlignment Healthcare, Inc.QOC 7.2HUMHumana Inc.QOC 7.6OSCROscar Health, Inc.QOC 7.1MOHMolina Healthcare, Inc.QOC 7.7CLOVClover Health Investments, Corp.QOC 6.5PFHOPacific Health Care Organization, Inc.QOC 8.5CIThe Cigna GroupQOC 7.9PGNYProgyny, Inc.QOC 8.6

Read investment analysis: CNC · ALHC · HUM · OSCR · MOH · CLOV · PFHO · CI · PGNY

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CVS?

7 companies across all industries closest to CVS’s Quality of Company score of 7.4/10.

OCFCOceanFirst Financial Corp.QOC 7.4EIXEdison InternationalQOC 7.4FPIFarmland Partners Inc.QOC 7.4CLBKColumbia Financial, Inc.QOC 7.4LXFRLuxfer Holdings PLCQOC 7.4CGNTCognyte Software Ltd.QOC 7.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: OCFC · EIX · FPI · CLBK · LXFR · CGNT · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About CVS Health Corporation’s Valuation?

What is CVS Health Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts CVS Health Corporation (CVS)'s intrinsic value at $92.61 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $15.69 to $253.42. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $73.58 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CVS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $93.06, 6 of 12 active models suggest CVS may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $92.61, essentially in line with the current price of $93.06 — a consensus view that CVS is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits CVS Health Corporation's business model in Healthcare Plans.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.4 mean for CVS?

CVS Health Corporation's QOC of 7.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CVS?

CirclFi analyzes CVS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CVS?

Of the 12 models currently active on CVS, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $253.42 per share, and Sentiment SOTP is the most bearish at $15.69. CirclFi's published fair value for CVS is the median of that range, $92.61, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 257% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CVS a value trap in 2026?

CVS Health Corporation's Value Trap score is 20/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, CVS Health Corporation (CVS) has a median fair value of $92.61 — essentially in line with the current price of $93.06 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CVS/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CVS valuation
  • Financial statements: CVS Health Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000064803) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CVS as of ; valuations recomputed .

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