CVS Health Corporation (CVS) Fair Value 2026

CVS · Retail-Drug Stores and Proprietary Stores ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, CVS Health Corporation (CVS) trades at $106.18, approximately 6% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $113.35. QOC: 7.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
CVS
Price
$106.18
Quality Score
7.6/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +71.7% upside with 62% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($106.18)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$113.35 +6.8%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$108.83 +2.5%
CUCE Ensemble
Medium Conviction
$107.35 +1.1%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$182.29 +71.7%

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What Is CVS Health Corporation (CVS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, CVS Health Corporation presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $106.18. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $105.93 (-0.2% average upside), masking a wide model spread between the 5 bullish models and 4 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $182.29 (+71.7%), versus EROIC at $44.27 (-58.3%). This +130.0% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About CVS?

12 of 13 models are currently active for CVS. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates CVS's intrinsic value at $113.35, implying +6.8% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CVS Rank in Retail-Drug Stores and Proprietary Stores?

Among 5 Retail-Drug Stores and Proprietary Stores stocks, CVS ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.6 indicates above-average quality.

The Retail-Drug Stores and Proprietary Stores sector introduces analytical considerations specific to biopharma enterprise businesses. For CVS Health Corporation, metrics like R&D productivity ratio provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is CVS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CVS a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for CVS Health Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, CVS Health Corporation earns a quality score of 7.6/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +130.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CVS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CVS's 12 active models, average confidence is 54%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy CVS Health Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Retail-Drug Stores and Proprietary Stores Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

4 related Retail-Drug Stores and Proprietary Stores stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: YI · GRDN · PETS · RDGT

Frequently Asked Questions About CVS Health Corporation

What is CVS Health Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, CVS Health Corporation (CVS) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $113.35. The Quality of Company score is 7.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CVS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $106.18, 8 of 12 active models suggest CVS may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits CVS Health Corporation's business model in Retail-Drug Stores and Proprietary Stores.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.6 mean for CVS?

CVS Health Corporation's QOC of 7.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CVS?

CirclFi analyzes CVS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is CVS a value trap in 2026?

CVS Health Corporation's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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