NIO Inc. (NIO) Fair Value 2026

NIO · Auto Manufacturers ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 3 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (19/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, NIO Inc. (NIO) trades at $4.37, versus a $5.65 median fair value across its 3 active models — 29.3% above the current price. QOC: 7.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 19/100 (SAFE). 3/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NIO
Price
$4.37
Quality Score
7.0/10
Value Trap Risk
19/100
Models Active
3/13
Last Updated
Strength: Regime Cross-Sectional suggests +444.8% upside with 40% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (3/13) may reduce confidence

Is NIO Inc. (NIO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, NIO Inc. (NIO) appears undervalued as of : the median of 3 independent fair value estimates is $5.65, 29.3% above the current price of $4.37. Estimates range from $5.16 to $23.81. NIO scores 7.0/10 on fundamental quality and 19/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. NIO’s +29.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Auto Manufacturers sector median is +15.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy NIO Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NIO?

3 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($4.37)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $23.81 +444.8%
Option-Based · Medium Conviction
 $5.65 +29.3%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $5.16 +18.1%

All Models Active

All 3 models are displayed above.

What Is NIO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 3 independent models · $5.16 to $23.81

CirclFi's 3 active models place NIO Inc. (NIO) between $5.16 and $23.81 per share, a spread of 330% of the median. The median of that range — $5.65 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NIO, against a current price of $4.37.

Low · FTNNHigh · Regime Cross
$5.16median $5.65$23.81
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelFTNN Topology$5.16
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$23.81
Model agreement3 bullish · 0 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for NIO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NIO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is NIO Inc. (NIO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, NIO Inc. is potentially undervalued at its current price of $4.37. Based on our 13-model framework, NIO Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $5.65 — representing +29.3% implied upside — with 3 out of 3 active models confirming this thesis. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $23.81 (+444.8%), versus FTNN at $5.16 (+18.1%). This +426.7% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About NIO?

3 of 13 models are currently active for NIO. All 3 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for NIO is $5.65 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NIO Rank in Auto Manufacturers?

Among 30 Auto Manufacturers stocks, NIO ranks #9 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.0 indicates above-average quality.

The Auto Manufacturers sector introduces analytical considerations specific to transportation company businesses. For NIO Inc., metrics like inventory days supply provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is NIO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NIO a score of 19/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

3 of 13 models are active for NIO Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, NIO Inc. earns a quality score of 7.0/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +426.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NIO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NIO's 3 active models, average confidence is 26%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy NIO Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Auto Manufacturers Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Auto Manufacturers stocks with 13-model coverage

FFord Motor CompanyQOC 7.2NIUNiu TechnologiesQOC 6.8CYDChina Yuchai International LimitedQOC 7.2GMGeneral Motors CompanyQOC 6.7XPEVXPeng Inc.QOC 7.4STLAStellantis N.V.QOC 6.6SSMSono Group N.V.QOC 5.4EMPDEmpery Digital Inc.QOC 3.9RACEFerrari N.V.QOC 9.7TSLATesla, Inc.QOC 8.4

Read investment analysis: F · NIU · CYD · GM · XPEV · STLA · SSM · EMPD · RACE · TSLA

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NIO?

7 companies across all industries closest to NIO’s Quality of Company score of 7.0/10.

BXPBXP, Inc.QOC 7.0ZTGZenta Group Company LimitedQOC 7.0LITBLightInTheBox Holding Co., Ltd.QOC 7.0VFCV.F. CorporationQOC 7.0OWLBlue Owl Capital Inc.QOC 7.0BWENBroadwind, Inc.QOC 7.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BXP · ZTG · LITB · VFC · OWL · BWEN · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About NIO Inc.’s Valuation?

What is NIO Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts NIO Inc. (NIO)'s intrinsic value at $5.65 — the median of 3 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $5.16 to $23.81. The Quality of Company score is 7.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NIO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $4.37, 3 of 3 active models suggest NIO may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 3 fair value estimates is $5.65, 29.3% above the current price of $4.37 — a consensus view that NIO is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits NIO Inc.'s business model in Auto Manufacturers.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.0 mean for NIO?

NIO Inc.'s QOC of 7.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NIO?

CirclFi analyzes NIO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 3 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NIO?

Of the 3 models currently active on NIO, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $23.81 per share, and FTNN Topology is the most bearish at $5.16. CirclFi's published fair value for NIO is the median of that range, $5.65, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 330% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NIO a value trap in 2026?

NIO Inc.'s Value Trap score is 19/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, NIO Inc. (NIO) has a median fair value of $5.65 — 29.3% above the current price of $4.37 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NIO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NIO valuation
  • Financial statements: NIO Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001736541) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NIO as of ; valuations recomputed .