Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) Fair Value 2026

OSK · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) trades at $156.71, versus a $90.84 median fair value across its 12 active models — 42.0% below the current price. QOC: 8.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $23.46.

Key Facts

Ticker
OSK
Price
$156.71
Quality Score
8.8/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +255.0% upside with 62% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $90.84, 42.0% below the current price of $156.71. Estimates range from $23.46 to $556.27. OSK scores 8.8/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. OSK’s -42.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery sector median is -8.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Oshkosh Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give OSK?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($156.71)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $23.46 -85.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $70.79 -54.8%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $116.41 -25.7%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $556.27 +255.0%
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What Is OSK's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $23.46 to $556.27

CirclFi's 12 active models place Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) between $23.46 and $556.27 per share, a spread of 587% of the median. The median of that range — $90.84 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for OSK, against a current price of $156.71.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · First Chicago
$23.46median $90.84$556.27
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$23.46
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$556.27
Model agreement4 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for OSK. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on OSK, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Oshkosh Corporation at its current price of $156.71. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $90.84 (-42.0% vs price), with 8 models flagging overvaluation risk. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $556.27 (+255.0%), while Bayesian DCF — the most conservative — estimates $23.46 (-85.0%). This +340.0% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Oshkosh Corporation's intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About OSK?

12 of 13 models are currently active for OSK. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for OSK is $90.84 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $23.46 on its own, implying -85.0% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does OSK Rank in Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery?

Among 28 Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks, OSK ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.8 places OSK in the top tier.

Within the Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery space, Oshkosh Corporation competes in an environment where aftermarket revenue mix often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is OSK a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns OSK a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Oshkosh Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Oshkosh Corporation's fundamental quality profile registers 8.8/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +340.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every OSK valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across OSK's 12 active models, average confidence is 53%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Oshkosh Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks with 13-model coverage

FSSFederal Signal CorporationQOC 8.9LNNLindsay CorporationQOC 8.8CATCaterpillar Inc.QOC 9.0GENCGencor Industries, Inc.QOC 8.6BLBDBlue Bird CorporationQOC 9.4ALGAlamo Group Inc.QOC 8.6AGCOAGCO CorporationQOC 8.3TWITitan International, Inc.QOC 7.1NMHINature's Miracle Holding Inc.QOC 3.5

Read investment analysis: FSS · LNN · CAT · GENC · BLBD · ALG · AGCO · TWI · NMHI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to OSK?

7 companies across all industries closest to OSK’s Quality of Company score of 8.8/10.

TAYDTaylor Devices, Inc.QOC 8.8VELVelocity Financial, Inc.QOC 8.8LMBLimbach Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.8PANWPalo Alto Networks, Inc.QOC 8.8CIXCompX International Inc.QOC 8.8WESWestern Midstream Partners, LPQOC 8.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: TAYD · VEL · LMB · PANW · CIX · WES · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Oshkosh Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Oshkosh Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Oshkosh Corporation (OSK)'s intrinsic value at $90.84 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $23.46 to $556.27. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $23.46 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is OSK overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $156.71, 4 of 12 active models suggest OSK may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $90.84, 42.0% below the current price of $156.71 — a consensus view that OSK is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Oshkosh Corporation's business model in Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.8 mean for OSK?

Oshkosh Corporation's QOC of 8.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on OSK?

CirclFi analyzes OSK with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on OSK?

Of the 12 models currently active on OSK, First Chicago is the most bullish at $556.27 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $23.46. CirclFi's published fair value for OSK is the median of that range, $90.84, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 587% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is OSK a value trap in 2026?

Oshkosh Corporation's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) has a median fair value of $90.84 — 42.0% below the current price of $156.71 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/OSK/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this OSK valuation
  • Financial statements: Oshkosh Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000775158) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for OSK as of ; valuations recomputed .

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