Alamo Group, Inc. (ALG) Fair Value 2026

ALG · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (5/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Alamo Group, Inc. (ALG) trades at $162.00, approximately 81% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $89.29. QOC: 9.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 5/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ALG
Price
$162.00
Quality Score
9.6/10
Value Trap Risk
5/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 9.6/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($162.00)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $89.29 -44.9%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $62.44 -61.5%
CUCE Ensemble
Medium Conviction
 $95.35 -41.1%
First Chicago
High Conviction
 $130.55 -19.4%

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What Is Alamo Group, Inc. (ALG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Alamo Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $109.36. Trading at its current price of $162.00, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 10 of 13 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -32.5%. Model dispersion is worth noting: FTNN targets $234.23 (+44.6%), versus Markov DDM at $22.04 (-86.4%). This +131.0% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About ALG?

13 of 13 models are currently active for ALG. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates ALG's intrinsic value at $89.29, implying -44.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ALG Rank in Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery?

Among 3 Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks, ALG ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.6 places ALG in the top tier.

The Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery sector introduces analytical considerations specific to industrial enterprise businesses. For Alamo Group, Inc., metrics like organic revenue growth provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is ALG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ALG a score of 5/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Alamo Group, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Alamo Group, Inc. earns a quality score of 9.6/10. This exceptional rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +131.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ALG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ALG's 13 active models, average confidence is 54%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Alamo Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

2 related Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks with 13-model coverage

AGCOAGCO CorporationQOC 7.9AEBIAebi Schmidt Holding AGQOC 7.6

Read investment analysis: AGCO · AEBI

Frequently Asked Questions About Alamo Group, Inc.

What is Alamo Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Alamo Group, Inc. (ALG) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $89.29. The Quality of Company score is 9.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ALG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $162.00, 3 of 13 active models suggest ALG may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Alamo Group, Inc.'s business model in Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.6 mean for ALG?

Alamo Group, Inc.'s QOC of 9.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ALG?

CirclFi analyzes ALG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is ALG a value trap in 2026?

Alamo Group, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 5/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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