Hydrofarm Holdings Group, Inc. (HYFM) Fair Value 2026

HYFM · Wholesale-Miscellaneous Nondurable Goods ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 1 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (31/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Hydrofarm Holdings Group, Inc. (HYFM) trades at $0.75, approximately 67% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $2.27. QOC: 5.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 31/100 (LOW). 1/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
HYFM
Price
$0.75
Quality Score
5.1/10
Value Trap Risk
31/100
Models Active
1/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +202.1% upside with 18% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (1/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

1 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($0.75)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
 $2.27 +202.1%

All Models Active

All 1 models are displayed above.

What Is Hydrofarm Holdings Group, Inc. (HYFM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Hydrofarm Holdings Group, Inc. is potentially undervalued at its current price of $0.75. Based on our 13-model framework, Hydrofarm Holdings Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $2.27 — representing +202.1% implied upside — with 1 out of 1 active models confirming this thesis.

What Do the Models Say About HYFM?

1 of 13 models are currently active for HYFM. All 1 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. The Bayesian DCF estimates HYFM's intrinsic value at $2.27, implying +202.1% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HYFM Rank in Wholesale-Miscellaneous Nondurable Goods?

Among 6 Wholesale-Miscellaneous Nondurable Goods stocks, HYFM ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.1 reflects mixed fundamentals.

Hydrofarm Holdings Group, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is HYFM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HYFM a score of 31/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

1 of 13 models are active for Hydrofarm Holdings Group, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Hydrofarm Holdings Group, Inc. earns a quality score of 5.1/10. This mixed rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

CirclFi runs 13 independent models for each stock. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HYFM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HYFM's 1 active models, average confidence is 18%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Hydrofarm Holdings Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Wholesale-Miscellaneous Nondurable Goods Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

5 related Wholesale-Miscellaneous Nondurable Goods stocks with 13-model coverage

CENTCentral Garden & Pet CompanyQOC 8.7CENTACentral Garden & Pet CompanyQOC 8.7EDUCEducational Development CorporaQOC 7.3NHTCNatural Health Trends Corp.QOC 6.3VSTSVestis CorporationQOC 6.1

Read investment analysis: CENT · CENTA · EDUC · NHTC · VSTS

Frequently Asked Questions About Hydrofarm Holdings Group, Inc.

What is Hydrofarm Holdings Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Hydrofarm Holdings Group, Inc. (HYFM) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $2.27. The Quality of Company score is 5.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HYFM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $0.75, 1 of 1 active models suggest HYFM may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Hydrofarm Holdings Group, Inc.'s business model in Wholesale-Miscellaneous Nondurable Goods.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.1 mean for HYFM?

Hydrofarm Holdings Group, Inc.'s QOC of 5.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HYFM?

CirclFi analyzes HYFM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 1 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is HYFM a value trap in 2026?

Hydrofarm Holdings Group, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 31/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →