Verde Clean Fuels, Inc. (VGAS) Fair Value 2026

VGAS · Industrial Organic Chemicals ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

3.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Verde Clean Fuels, Inc. (VGAS) trades at $1.13, approximately 2% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $1.11. QOC: 3.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
VGAS
Price
$1.13
Quality Score
3.9/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +411.0% upside with 15% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 3.9/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is Verde Clean Fuels, Inc. (VGAS) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Verde Clean Fuels, Inc. (VGAS) appears undervalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $1.28, 13.6% above the current price of $1.13. Estimates range from $1.00 to $5.77. VGAS scores 3.9/10 on fundamental quality and 24/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Verde Clean Fuels, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($1.13)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Medium Conviction
$1.11 -2.2%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$1.28 +12.8%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
$5.77 +411.0%
Dynamic NAV
Medium Conviction
$1.07 -5.6%

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What Is Verde Clean Fuels, Inc. (VGAS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Verde Clean Fuels, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $1.81, suggesting a +60.1% average upside from the current price of $1.13. While 6 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 3 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $5.77 (+411.0%), versus PWERM at $1.00 (-11.9%). This +422.8% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About VGAS?

10 of 13 models are currently active for VGAS. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates VGAS's intrinsic value at $1.11, implying -2.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does VGAS Rank in Industrial Organic Chemicals?

Among 20 Industrial Organic Chemicals stocks, VGAS ranks #18 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 3.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 3.9 signals below-average fundamentals.

As a industrial enterprise, Verde Clean Fuels, Inc. operates in a sector where aftermarket revenue mix is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating VGAS should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is VGAS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns VGAS a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Verde Clean Fuels, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Verde Clean Fuels, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 3.9/10. This mixed score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +422.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every VGAS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across VGAS's 10 active models, average confidence is 31%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Verde Clean Fuels, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Industrial Organic Chemicals Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Industrial Organic Chemicals stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: NEU · SXT · WLKP · REX · MEOH

Frequently Asked Questions About Verde Clean Fuels, Inc.

What is Verde Clean Fuels, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Verde Clean Fuels, Inc. (VGAS) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $1.11. The Quality of Company score is 3.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is VGAS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $1.13, 6 of 10 active models suggest VGAS may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $1.28, 13.6% above the current price of $1.13 — a consensus view that VGAS is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Verde Clean Fuels, Inc.'s business model in Industrial Organic Chemicals.

What does a Quality of Company score of 3.9 mean for VGAS?

Verde Clean Fuels, Inc.'s QOC of 3.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on VGAS?

CirclFi analyzes VGAS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is VGAS a value trap in 2026?

Verde Clean Fuels, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Verde Clean Fuels, Inc. (VGAS) has a median fair value of $1.28 — 13.6% above the current price of $1.13 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/VGAS/ · Methodology

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