China Yuchai International Limited (CYD) Fair Value 2026

CYD · Engines & Turbines ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (22/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, China Yuchai International Limited (CYD) trades at $40.39, versus a $25.48 median fair value across its 8 active models — 36.9% below the current price. QOC: 7.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 22/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $17.53.

Key Facts

Ticker
CYD
Price
$40.39
Quality Score
7.2/10
Value Trap Risk
22/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +161.6% upside with 37% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is China Yuchai International Limited (CYD) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, China Yuchai International Limited (CYD) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $25.48, 36.9% below the current price of $40.39. Estimates range from $11.60 to $105.65. CYD scores 7.2/10 on fundamental quality and 22/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. CYD’s -36.9% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy China Yuchai International Limited Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CYD?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($40.39)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $17.53 -56.6%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $24.85 -38.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $26.11 -35.4%
Scenario · Medium Conviction
 $105.65 +161.6%
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What Is CYD's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $11.60 to $105.65

CirclFi's 8 active models place China Yuchai International Limited (CYD) between $11.60 and $105.65 per share, a spread of 369% of the median. The median of that range — $25.48 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CYD, against a current price of $40.39.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · First Chicago
$11.60median $25.48$105.65
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$11.60
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$105.65
Model agreement1 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CYD. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CYD, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is China Yuchai International Limited (CYD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, China Yuchai International Limited's intrinsic value is estimated at $25.48. Trading at its current price of $40.39, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 6 of 8 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -36.9%. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $105.65 (+161.6%), versus ML-RIV at $11.60 (-71.3%). This +232.9% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About CYD?

8 of 13 models are currently active for CYD. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CYD is $25.48 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $17.53 on its own, implying -56.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CYD Rank in Engines & Turbines?

Among 1 Engines & Turbines stocks, CYD ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.2 indicates above-average quality.

China Yuchai International Limited operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is CYD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CYD a score of 22/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for China Yuchai International Limited. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, China Yuchai International Limited scores 7.2 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +232.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CYD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CYD's 8 active models, average confidence is 33%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy China Yuchai International Limited Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CYD?

7 companies across all industries closest to CYD’s Quality of Company score of 7.2/10.

MRPMillrose Properties, Inc.QOC 7.2USIOUsio, Inc.QOC 7.2SYNASynaptics IncorporatedQOC 7.2HTTHigh Templar Tech LimitedQOC 7.2AENTAlliance Entertainment Holding CorporationQOC 7.2STGWStagwell Inc.QOC 7.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: MRP · USIO · SYNA · HTT · AENT · STGW · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About China Yuchai International Limited’s Valuation?

What is China Yuchai International Limited's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts China Yuchai International Limited (CYD)'s intrinsic value at $25.48 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $11.60 to $105.65. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $17.53 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CYD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $40.39, 2 of 8 active models suggest CYD may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $25.48, 36.9% below the current price of $40.39 — a consensus view that CYD is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits China Yuchai International Limited's business model in Engines & Turbines.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.2 mean for CYD?

China Yuchai International Limited's QOC of 7.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CYD?

CirclFi analyzes CYD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CYD?

Of the 8 models currently active on CYD, First Chicago is the most bullish at $105.65 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $11.60. CirclFi's published fair value for CYD is the median of that range, $25.48, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 369% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CYD a value trap in 2026?

China Yuchai International Limited's Value Trap score is 22/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, China Yuchai International Limited (CYD) has a median fair value of $25.48 — 36.9% below the current price of $40.39 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CYD/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CYD valuation
  • Financial statements: China Yuchai International Limited 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000932695) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CYD as of ; valuations recomputed .

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