China Yuchai International Limi (CYD) Fair Value 2026

CYD · Engines & Turbines ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, China Yuchai International Limi (CYD) trades at $44.55, approximately 81% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $24.62. QOC: 7.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
CYD
Price
$44.55
Quality Score
7.5/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +59.4% upside with 36% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (13/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($44.55)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Medium Conviction
$24.62 -44.7%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$48.22 +8.2%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$42.99 -3.5%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$71.02 +59.4%

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What Is China Yuchai International Limi (CYD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, China Yuchai International Limi presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $44.55. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $42.90 (-3.7% average upside), masking a wide model spread between the 5 bullish models and 7 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: FTNN targets $83.12 (+86.6%), versus Markov DDM at $6.26 (-85.9%). This +172.5% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About CYD?

13 of 13 models are currently active for CYD. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates CYD's intrinsic value at $24.62, implying -44.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CYD Rank in Engines & Turbines?

Among 6 Engines & Turbines stocks, CYD ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.5 indicates above-average quality.

China Yuchai International Limi operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is CYD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CYD a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for China Yuchai International Limi. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, China Yuchai International Limi scores 7.5 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +172.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CYD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CYD's 13 active models, average confidence is 31%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy China Yuchai International Limi Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

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Frequently Asked Questions About China Yuchai International Limi

What is China Yuchai International Limi's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, China Yuchai International Limi (CYD) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $24.62. The Quality of Company score is 7.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CYD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $44.55, 5 of 13 active models suggest CYD may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits China Yuchai International Limi's business model in Engines & Turbines.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.5 mean for CYD?

China Yuchai International Limi's QOC of 7.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CYD?

CirclFi analyzes CYD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is CYD a value trap in 2026?

China Yuchai International Limi's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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