Tactile Systems Technology, Inc. (TCMD) Fair Value 2026

TCMD · Medical Devices ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (23/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Tactile Systems Technology, Inc. (TCMD) trades at $23.11, versus a $25.99 median fair value across its 12 active models — 12.5% above the current price. QOC: 8.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 23/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $37.90.

Key Facts

Ticker
TCMD
Price
$23.11
Quality Score
8.8/10
Value Trap Risk
23/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +132.7% upside with 65% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Is Tactile Systems Technology, Inc. (TCMD) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Tactile Systems Technology, Inc. (TCMD) appears undervalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $25.99, 12.5% above the current price of $23.11. Estimates range from $2.43 to $53.78. TCMD scores 8.8/10 on fundamental quality and 23/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. TCMD’s +12.5% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Medical Devices sector median is -43.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Tactile Systems Technology, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TCMD?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($23.11)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $37.90 +64.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $2.43 -89.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $23.59 +2.1%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $53.78 +132.7%
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What Is TCMD's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $2.43 to $53.78

CirclFi's 12 active models place Tactile Systems Technology, Inc. (TCMD) between $2.43 and $53.78 per share, a spread of 198% of the median. The median of that range — $25.99 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TCMD, against a current price of $23.11.

Low · EPVHigh · First Chicago
$2.43median $25.99$53.78
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$2.43
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$53.78
Model agreement6 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for TCMD. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TCMD, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Tactile Systems Technology, Inc. (TCMD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Tactile Systems Technology, Inc. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $23.11. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $25.99 (+12.5% median upside), masking a wide model spread between the 6 bullish models and 4 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $53.78 (+132.7%), versus EPV at $2.43 (-89.5%). This +222.2% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About TCMD?

12 of 13 models are currently active for TCMD. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for TCMD is $25.99 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $37.90 on its own, implying +64.0% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TCMD Rank in Medical Devices?

Among 157 Medical Devices stocks, TCMD ranks #13 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.8 places TCMD in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Medical Devices Stocks →

The Medical Devices sector introduces analytical considerations specific to biopharma enterprise businesses. For Tactile Systems Technology, Inc., metrics like revenue per drug provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is TCMD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TCMD a score of 23/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Tactile Systems Technology, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Tactile Systems Technology, Inc. scores 8.8 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +222.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TCMD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TCMD's 12 active models, average confidence is 52%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Tactile Systems Technology, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Medical Devices Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Medical Devices stocks with 13-model coverage

ABTAbbott LaboratoriesQOC 8.8ESMCEscalon Medical Corp.QOC 8.7PENPenumbra, Inc.QOC 8.9EWEdwards Lifesciences CorporationQOC 8.7BSXBoston Scientific CorporationQOC 8.9SNNSmith & Nephew plcQOC 8.7CERSCerus CorporationQOC 6.9SSIISS Innovations International, Inc.QOC 6.0AEMDAethlon Medical, Inc.QOC 4.7IRMDIRADIMED CORPORATIONQOC 9.8PODDInsulet CorporationQOC 9.6

Read investment analysis: ABT · ESMC · PEN · EW · BSX · SNN · CERS · SSII · AEMD · IRMD · PODD

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TCMD?

7 companies across all industries closest to TCMD’s Quality of Company score of 8.8/10.

VFFVillage Farms International, Inc.QOC 8.8MGNIMagnite, Inc.QOC 8.8FDXFedEx CorporationQOC 8.8IBOCInternational Bancshares CorporationQOC 8.8VCYTVeracyte, Inc.QOC 8.8ILMNIllumina, Inc.QOC 8.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: VFF · MGNI · FDX · IBOC · VCYT · ILMN · NVDA

Where Does TCMD Sit in CirclFi's Medical Devices Rankings?

TCMD is ranked against every other Medical Devices stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Medical Devices stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Tactile Systems Technology, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Tactile Systems Technology, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Tactile Systems Technology, Inc. (TCMD)'s intrinsic value at $25.99 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $2.43 to $53.78. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $37.90 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TCMD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $23.11, 8 of 12 active models suggest TCMD may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $25.99, 12.5% above the current price of $23.11 — a consensus view that TCMD is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Tactile Systems Technology, Inc.'s business model in Medical Devices.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.8 mean for TCMD?

Tactile Systems Technology, Inc.'s QOC of 8.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TCMD?

CirclFi analyzes TCMD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TCMD?

Of the 12 models currently active on TCMD, First Chicago is the most bullish at $53.78 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $2.43. CirclFi's published fair value for TCMD is the median of that range, $25.99, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 198% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TCMD a value trap in 2026?

Tactile Systems Technology, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 23/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Tactile Systems Technology, Inc. (TCMD) has a median fair value of $25.99 — 12.5% above the current price of $23.11 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TCMD/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TCMD valuation
  • Financial statements: Tactile Systems Technology, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001027838) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TCMD as of ; valuations recomputed .

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