Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc. (ADGM) Fair Value 2026

ADGM · Medical Devices ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

4.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 1 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (17/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc. (ADGM) trades at $0.52. QOC: 4.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 17/100 (SAFE). 1/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ADGM
Price
$0.52
Quality Score
4.3/10
Value Trap Risk
17/100
Models Active
1/13
Last Updated
Strength: PWERM suggests +116.9% upside with 31% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 4.3/10 signals weak fundamentals

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ADGM?

1 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($0.52)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Option-Based · Medium Conviction
 $1.13 +116.9%

All Models Active

All 1 models are displayed above.

What Is Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc. (ADGM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc. is potentially undervalued at its current price of $0.52. Based on our 13-model framework, Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $1.13 — representing +116.9% implied upside — with 1 out of 1 active models confirming this thesis.

What Do the Models Say About ADGM?

1 of 13 models are currently active for ADGM. All 1 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ADGM Rank in Medical Devices?

Among 157 Medical Devices stocks, ADGM ranks #139 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 4.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 4.3 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Medical Devices Stocks →

Within the Medical Devices space, Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc. competes in an environment where patent cliff exposure often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is ADGM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ADGM a score of 17/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

1 of 13 models are active for Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc. is rated at 4.3/10. This moderate-tier score shows mixed signals across our quality framework with notable weaknesses.

CirclFi runs 13 independent models for each stock. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ADGM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ADGM's 1 active models, average confidence is 31%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Medical Devices Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Medical Devices stocks with 13-model coverage

PMIPicard Medical, Inc.QOC 4.4POSCPositron CorporationQOC 4.3BJDXBluejay Diagnostics, Inc.QOC 4.4NVNOenVVeno Medical CorporationQOC 4.2MODDModular Medical, Inc.QOC 4.4AMIXAutonomix Medical, Inc.QOC 4.2HAEHaemonetics CorporationQOC 8.3GKOSGlaukos CorporationQOC 6.7CVCapsoVision, Inc.QOC 5.7IRMDIRADIMED CORPORATIONQOC 9.8PODDInsulet CorporationQOC 9.6

Read investment analysis: PMI · POSC · BJDX · NVNO · MODD · AMIX · HAE · GKOS · CV · IRMD · PODD

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ADGM?

7 companies across all industries closest to ADGM’s Quality of Company score of 4.3/10.

GDSTChi Special Acquisition Corp.QOC 4.3MTWOM2i Global, Inc.QOC 4.3HCMCHealthier Choices Management Corp.QOC 4.3TRNRInteractive Strength Inc.QOC 4.3BYSIBeyondSpring Inc.QOC 4.3ONCOOnconetix, Inc.QOC 4.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: GDST · MTWO · HCMC · TRNR · BYSI · ONCO · NVDA

Where Does ADGM Sit in CirclFi's Medical Devices Rankings?

ADGM is ranked against every other Medical Devices stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Medical Devices stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi does not yet have enough active models to publish a median fair value for Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc. (ADGM). The Quality of Company score is 4.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ADGM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $0.52, 1 of 1 active models suggest ADGM may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Medical Devices.

What does a Quality of Company score of 4.3 mean for ADGM?

Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 4.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ADGM?

CirclFi analyzes ADGM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 1 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is ADGM a value trap in 2026?

Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 17/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “CirclFi assigns Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc. (ADGM) a Quality of Company score of 4.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ADGM/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ADGM valuation
  • Financial statements: Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0002006986) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ADGM as of ; valuations recomputed .