Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc. (KBDC) Fair Value 2026

KBDC · — ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

4.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (42/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc. (KBDC) trades at $13.76, approximately 59% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $8.67. QOC: 4.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 42/100 (WARN). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
KBDC
Price
$13.76
Quality Score
4.6/10
Value Trap Risk
42/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +55.7% upside with 2% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 42 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc. (KBDC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc. (KBDC) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $11.85, 13.9% below the current price of $13.76. Estimates range from $2.16 to $24.03. KBDC scores 4.6/10 on fundamental quality and 42/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($13.76)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Medium Conviction
$8.67 -37.0%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$2.16 -84.3%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$21.42 +55.7%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$4.17 -69.7%

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What Is Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc. (KBDC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite $12.92, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $13.76. While the average implied return is -6.1%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +158.9% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $24.03 (+74.6%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $2.16 (-84.3%). This +158.9% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About KBDC?

11 of 13 models are currently active for KBDC. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates KBDC's intrinsic value at $8.67, implying -37.0% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does KBDC Rank in —?

KBDC operates in the — sector. CirclFi's QOC score of 4.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 4.6 reflects mixed fundamentals.

Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is KBDC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns KBDC a score of 42/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc. scores 4.6 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a moderate rating that shows mixed signals across our quality framework with notable weaknesses. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +158.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every KBDC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across KBDC's 11 active models, average confidence is 27%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

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Frequently Asked Questions About Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc.

What is Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc. (KBDC) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $8.67. The Quality of Company score is 4.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is KBDC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $13.76, 5 of 11 active models suggest KBDC may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $11.85, 13.9% below the current price of $13.76 — a consensus view that KBDC is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc.'s business model in —.

What does a Quality of Company score of 4.6 mean for KBDC?

Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc.'s QOC of 4.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on KBDC?

CirclFi analyzes KBDC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is KBDC a value trap in 2026?

Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 42/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc. (KBDC) has a median fair value of $11.85 — 13.9% below the current price of $13.76 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/KBDC/ · Methodology

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