Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc. (KBDC) Fair Value 2026

KBDC · Asset Management ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

4.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

DANGER (93/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc. (KBDC) trades at $13.40, versus a $9.42 median fair value across its 7 active models — 29.7% below the current price. QOC: 4.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 93/100 (DANGER). 7/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $4.10.

Key Facts

Ticker
KBDC
Price
$13.40
Quality Score
4.8/10
Value Trap Risk
93/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: Markov DDM suggests +17.5% upside with 28% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 93 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc. (KBDC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc. (KBDC) appears overvalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $9.42, 29.7% below the current price of $13.40. Estimates range from $3.04 to $19.60. KBDC scores 4.8/10 on fundamental quality and 93/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. KBDC’s -29.7% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Asset Management sector median is -4.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give KBDC?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($13.40)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Low Conviction
 $4.10 -69.4%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $9.42 -29.7%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $15.74 +17.5%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 4 additional models including ML-RIV, PWERM, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 7 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is KBDC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $3.04 to $19.60

CirclFi's 7 active models place Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc. (KBDC) between $3.04 and $19.60 per share, a spread of 176% of the median. The median of that range — $9.42 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for KBDC, against a current price of $13.40.

Low · RCMH-DCFHigh · PWERM
$3.04median $9.42$19.60
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRCMH-DCF$3.04
Most bullish modelPWERM$19.60
Model agreement2 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for KBDC. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on KBDC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc. (KBDC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $9.42. Trading at $13.40, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -29.7%), as 5 of 7 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, PWERM, places fair value at $19.60 (+46.3%), while RCMH-DCF — the most conservative — estimates $3.04 (-77.3%). This +123.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About KBDC?

7 of 13 models are currently active for KBDC. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for KBDC is $9.42 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $4.10 on its own, implying -69.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does KBDC Rank in Asset Management?

Among 187 Asset Management stocks, KBDC ranks #126 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 4.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 4.8 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Asset Management Stocks →

Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is KBDC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns KBDC a score of 93/100 (DANGER). This is a high-risk signal. Deteriorating fundamentals suggest the discount may be justified. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc. scores 4.8 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a moderate rating that shows mixed signals across our quality framework with notable weaknesses. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones. The elevated Value Trap score, however, warrants additional due diligence.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +123.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every KBDC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across KBDC's 7 active models, average confidence is 19%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Asset Management Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Asset Management stocks with 13-model coverage

CYPHCypherpunk Technologies Inc.QOC 4.8GECCGreat Elm Capital Corp.QOC 4.8BLWBlackRock Limited Duration Income TrustQOC 4.8MPVBarings Participation InvestorsQOC 4.8VVRInvesco Senior Income TrustQOC 4.8CWDCaliberCos Inc.QOC 4.8BCXBlackrock Resources & Commodities Strategy TrustQOC 2.2PFGPrincipal Financial Group, Inc.QOC 7.4OTFBlue Owl Technology Finance Corp.QOC 6.0HLNEHamilton Lane IncorporatedQOC 9.3AMPAmeriprise Financial, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: CYPH · GECC · BLW · MPV · VVR · CWD · BCX · PFG · OTF · HLNE · AMP

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to KBDC?

5 companies across all industries closest to KBDC’s Quality of Company score of 4.8/10.

SEVAptera Motors Corp.QOC 4.8FJETStarfighters Space, Inc.QOC 4.8MPLTMapLight Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 4.8REPLReplimune Group, Inc.QOC 4.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SEV · FJET · MPLT · REPL · NVDA

Where Does KBDC Sit in CirclFi's Asset Management Rankings?

KBDC is ranked against every other Asset Management stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Asset Management stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc. (KBDC)'s intrinsic value at $9.42 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $3.04 to $19.60. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $4.10 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 4.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is KBDC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $13.40, 2 of 7 active models suggest KBDC may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $9.42, 29.7% below the current price of $13.40 — a consensus view that KBDC is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc.'s business model in Asset Management.

What does a Quality of Company score of 4.8 mean for KBDC?

Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc.'s QOC of 4.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on KBDC?

CirclFi analyzes KBDC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on KBDC?

Of the 7 models currently active on KBDC, PWERM is the most bullish at $19.60 per share, and RCMH-DCF is the most bearish at $3.04. CirclFi's published fair value for KBDC is the median of that range, $9.42, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 176% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is KBDC a value trap in 2026?

Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 93/100 (DANGER). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc. (KBDC) has a median fair value of $9.42 — 29.7% below the current price of $13.40 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/KBDC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this KBDC valuation
  • Financial statements: Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001747172) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for KBDC as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 7 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on KBDC.

Unlock All 7 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

4 models hidden for KBDC Unlock All 7 — $39/mo