Great Elm Capital Corp. (GECC) Fair Value 2026

GECC · Asset Management ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

4.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 3 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (9/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Great Elm Capital Corp. (GECC) trades at $6.13, versus a $12.61 median fair value across its 3 active models — 105.6% above the current price. QOC: 4.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 9/100 (SAFE). 3/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
GECC
Price
$6.13
Quality Score
4.8/10
Value Trap Risk
9/100
Models Active
3/13
Last Updated
Strength: FTNN Topology suggests +167.7% upside with 6% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 4.8/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is Great Elm Capital Corp. (GECC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Great Elm Capital Corp. (GECC) appears undervalued as of : the median of 3 independent fair value estimates is $12.61, 105.6% above the current price of $6.13. Estimates range from $7.94 to $16.41. GECC scores 4.8/10 on fundamental quality and 9/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. GECC’s +105.6% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Asset Management sector median is -4.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Great Elm Capital Corp. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give GECC?

3 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($6.13)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $7.94 +29.6%
Option-Based · Medium Conviction
 $12.61 +105.6%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $16.41 +167.7%

All Models Active

All 3 models are displayed above.

What Is GECC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 3 independent models · $7.94 to $16.41

CirclFi's 3 active models place Great Elm Capital Corp. (GECC) between $7.94 and $16.41 per share, a spread of 67% of the median. The median of that range — $12.61 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for GECC, against a current price of $6.13.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · FTNN
$7.94median $12.61$16.41
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$7.94
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$16.41
Model agreement3 bullish · 0 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on GECC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Great Elm Capital Corp. (GECC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Great Elm Capital Corp.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $12.61. At a current market price of $6.13, 3 of 3 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting a median implied return of +105.6%. Notably, FTNN sees the most upside at +167.7% (fair value: $16.41), while Regime Cross is the most conservative at +29.6% ($7.94). The spread between these extremes — +138.1% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About GECC?

3 of 13 models are currently active for GECC. All 3 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for GECC is $12.61 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does GECC Rank in Asset Management?

Among 187 Asset Management stocks, GECC ranks #127 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 4.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 4.8 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Asset Management Stocks →

Great Elm Capital Corp. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is GECC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns GECC a score of 9/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

3 of 13 models are active for Great Elm Capital Corp.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Great Elm Capital Corp. scores 4.8 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a moderate rating that shows mixed signals across our quality framework with notable weaknesses. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +138.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every GECC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across GECC's 3 active models, average confidence is 22%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Great Elm Capital Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Asset Management Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Asset Management stocks with 13-model coverage

KBDCKayne Anderson BDC, Inc.QOC 4.8MPVBarings Participation InvestorsQOC 4.8CYPHCypherpunk Technologies Inc.QOC 4.8CWDCaliberCos Inc.QOC 4.8BLWBlackRock Limited Duration Income TrustQOC 4.8TWAVTaoWeave, Inc.QOC 4.8BSTBlackRock Science and Technology TrustQOC 2.2NSLRNeostellar Capital Corp.QOC 7.4BCSFBain Capital Specialty Finance, Inc.QOC 6.0HLNEHamilton Lane IncorporatedQOC 9.3AMPAmeriprise Financial, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: KBDC · MPV · CYPH · CWD · BLW · TWAV · BST · NSLR · BCSF · HLNE · AMP

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to GECC?

7 companies across all industries closest to GECC’s Quality of Company score of 4.8/10.

TAAGThe Awareness Group IncQOC 4.8MGRXMangoceuticals, Inc.QOC 4.8ELVRElevra Lithium LimitedQOC 4.8HTOOFusion Fuel Green PLCQOC 4.8BMGLBasel Medical Group LtdQOC 4.8WORXSCWorx CorpQOC 4.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: TAAG · MGRX · ELVR · HTOO · BMGL · WORX · NVDA

Where Does GECC Sit in CirclFi's Asset Management Rankings?

GECC is ranked against every other Asset Management stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Asset Management stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Great Elm Capital Corp.’s Valuation?

What is Great Elm Capital Corp.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Great Elm Capital Corp. (GECC)'s intrinsic value at $12.61 — the median of 3 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $7.94 to $16.41. The Quality of Company score is 4.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is GECC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $6.13, 3 of 3 active models suggest GECC may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 3 fair value estimates is $12.61, 105.6% above the current price of $6.13 — a consensus view that GECC is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Great Elm Capital Corp.'s business model in Asset Management.

What does a Quality of Company score of 4.8 mean for GECC?

Great Elm Capital Corp.'s QOC of 4.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on GECC?

CirclFi analyzes GECC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 3 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on GECC?

Of the 3 models currently active on GECC, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $16.41 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $7.94. CirclFi's published fair value for GECC is the median of that range, $12.61, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 67% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is GECC a value trap in 2026?

Great Elm Capital Corp.'s Value Trap score is 9/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Great Elm Capital Corp. (GECC) has a median fair value of $12.61 — 105.6% above the current price of $6.13 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/GECC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this GECC valuation
  • Financial statements: Great Elm Capital Corp. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001675033) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for GECC as of ; valuations recomputed .