Markel Group Inc. (MKL) Fair Value 2026

MKL · Insurance - Property & Casualty ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Markel Group Inc. (MKL) trades at $1805.82, versus a $1858.98 median fair value across its 5 active models — 2.9% above the current price. QOC: 9.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MKL
Price
$1805.82
Quality Score
9.0/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +2.9% upside with 27% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (5/13) may reduce confidence

Is Markel Group Inc. (MKL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Markel Group Inc. (MKL) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $1858.98, within 2.9% of the current price of $1805.82. Estimates range from $1534.14 to $2700.40. MKL scores 9.0/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. MKL’s +2.9% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Insurance - Property & Casualty sector median is -14.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Markel Group Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MKL?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($1805.82)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1585.02 -12.2%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $1858.98 +2.9%
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What Is MKL's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $1534.14 to $2700.40

CirclFi's 5 active models place Markel Group Inc. (MKL) between $1534.14 and $2700.40 per share, a spread of 63% of the median. The median of that range — $1858.98 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MKL, against a current price of $1805.82.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · ML-RIV
$1534.14median $1858.98$2700.40
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$1534.14
Most bullish modelML Residual Income$2700.40
Model agreement2 bullish · 2 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MKL, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Markel Group Inc. (MKL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Markel Group Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median $1,858.98, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $1,805.82. While the median implied return is +2.9%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +64.6% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, ML-RIV, places fair value at $2,700.40 (+49.5%), while Regime Cross — the most conservative — estimates $1,534.14 (-15.0%). This +64.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Markel Group Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About MKL?

5 of 13 models are currently active for MKL. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MKL is $1858.98 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MKL Rank in Insurance - Property & Casualty?

Among 41 Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks, MKL ranks #11 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.0 places MKL in the top tier.

Markel Group Inc.'s positioning within the Insurance - Property & Casualty segment means that reserve adequacy plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including premium rate hardening — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is MKL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MKL a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Markel Group Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Markel Group Inc. scores 9.0 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +64.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MKL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MKL's 5 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Markel Group Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Insurance - Property & Casualty Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks with 13-model coverage

RLIRLI Corp.QOC 9.0AIZAssurant, Inc.QOC 8.9HGTYHagerty, Inc.QOC 9.0CINFCincinnati Financial CorporationQOC 8.8TRVThe Travelers Companies, Inc.QOC 9.1PGRThe Progressive CorporationQOC 8.8UFCSUnited Fire Group, Inc.QOC 8.4LLoews CorporationQOC 8.0PRHIPresurance Holdings, Inc.QOC 4.9HCIHCI Group, Inc.QOC 9.9HRTGHeritage Insurance Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.7

Read investment analysis: RLI · AIZ · HGTY · CINF · TRV · PGR · UFCS · L · PRHI · HCI · HRTG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MKL?

7 companies across all industries closest to MKL’s Quality of Company score of 9.0/10.

YBYuanbao Inc.QOC 9.0AZZAZZ Inc.QOC 9.0DCBODocebo Inc.QOC 9.0JBLJabil Inc.QOC 9.0CALMCal-Maine Foods, Inc.QOC 9.0TPRTapestry, Inc.QOC 9.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: YB · AZZ · DCBO · JBL · CALM · TPR · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Markel Group Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Markel Group Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Markel Group Inc. (MKL)'s intrinsic value at $1858.98 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $1534.14 to $2700.40. The Quality of Company score is 9.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MKL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $1805.82, 3 of 5 active models suggest MKL may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $1858.98, within 2.9% of the current price of $1805.82 — a consensus view that MKL is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Markel Group Inc.'s business model in Insurance - Property & Casualty.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.0 mean for MKL?

Markel Group Inc.'s QOC of 9.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MKL?

CirclFi analyzes MKL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MKL?

Of the 5 models currently active on MKL, ML Residual Income is the most bullish at $2700.40 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $1534.14. CirclFi's published fair value for MKL is the median of that range, $1858.98, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 63% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MKL a value trap in 2026?

Markel Group Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Markel Group Inc. (MKL) has a median fair value of $1858.98 — within 2.9% of the current price of $1805.82 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MKL/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MKL valuation
  • Financial statements: Markel Group Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001096343) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MKL as of ; valuations recomputed .

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