Monro, Inc. (MNRO) Fair Value 2026

MNRO · Auto Parts ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (31/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Monro, Inc. (MNRO) trades at $13.67, versus a $12.77 median fair value across its 11 active models — 6.6% below the current price. QOC: 6.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 31/100 (LOW). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $7.38.

Key Facts

Ticker
MNRO
Price
$13.67
Quality Score
6.9/10
Value Trap Risk
31/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +49.9% upside with 61% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Monro, Inc. (MNRO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Monro, Inc. (MNRO) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $12.77, within 6.6% of the current price of $13.67. Estimates range from $3.26 to $39.07. MNRO scores 6.9/10 on fundamental quality and 31/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. MNRO’s -6.6% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Auto Parts sector median is -9.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Monro, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MNRO?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($13.67)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $7.38 -46.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.33 -75.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $12.77 -6.6%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $20.49 +49.9%
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What Is MNRO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $3.26 to $39.07

CirclFi's 11 active models place Monro, Inc. (MNRO) between $3.26 and $39.07 per share, a spread of 280% of the median. The median of that range — $12.77 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MNRO, against a current price of $13.67.

Low · EROICHigh · PWERM
$3.26median $12.77$39.07
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$3.26
Most bullish modelPWERM$39.07
Model agreement5 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MNRO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MNRO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Monro, Inc. (MNRO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Monro, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $12.77, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $13.67. With a median implied return of -6.6% across a split 5–6 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +261.9% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, PWERM sees the most upside at +185.8% (fair value: $39.07), while EROIC is the most conservative at -76.1% ($3.26). The spread between these extremes — +261.9% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About MNRO?

11 of 13 models are currently active for MNRO. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MNRO is $12.77 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $7.38 on its own, implying -46.0% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MNRO Rank in Auto Parts?

Among 58 Auto Parts stocks, MNRO ranks #33 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.9 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Auto Parts Stocks →

The Auto Parts sector introduces analytical considerations specific to vehicle manufacturer businesses. For Monro, Inc., metrics like inventory days supply provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is MNRO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MNRO a score of 31/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Monro, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Monro, Inc. scores 6.9 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +261.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MNRO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MNRO's 11 active models, average confidence is 52%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Monro, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Auto Parts Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Auto Parts stocks with 13-model coverage

CVGICommercial Vehicle Group, Inc.QOC 7.1SRIStoneridge, Inc.QOC 6.9DCHDauch CorporationQOC 7.2CPSCooper-Standard Holdings Inc.QOC 6.8ADNTAdient plcQOC 7.3FOXFFox Factory Holding Corp.QOC 6.6ECXECARX Holdings Inc.QOC 5.6LEALear CorporationQOC 8.7THRMGentherm IncorporatedQOC 8.0ALSNAllison Transmission Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1ALVAutoliv, Inc.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: CVGI · SRI · DCH · CPS · ADNT · FOXF · ECX · LEA · THRM · ALSN · ALV

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MNRO?

7 companies across all industries closest to MNRO’s Quality of Company score of 6.9/10.

KMPRKemper CorporationQOC 6.9LSFLaird Superfood, Inc.QOC 6.9UPSTUpstart Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.9CCSCentury Communities, Inc.QOC 6.9BKHBlack Hills CorporationQOC 6.9CEPLCapstone Energy+, Inc.QOC 6.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: KMPR · LSF · UPST · CCS · BKH · CEPL · NVDA

Where Does MNRO Sit in CirclFi's Auto Parts Rankings?

MNRO is ranked against every other Auto Parts stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Auto Parts stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Monro, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Monro, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Monro, Inc. (MNRO)'s intrinsic value at $12.77 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $3.26 to $39.07. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $7.38 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MNRO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $13.67, 5 of 11 active models suggest MNRO may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $12.77, within 6.6% of the current price of $13.67 — a consensus view that MNRO is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Monro, Inc.'s business model in Auto Parts.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.9 mean for MNRO?

Monro, Inc.'s QOC of 6.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MNRO?

CirclFi analyzes MNRO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MNRO?

Of the 11 models currently active on MNRO, PWERM is the most bullish at $39.07 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $3.26. CirclFi's published fair value for MNRO is the median of that range, $12.77, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 280% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MNRO a value trap in 2026?

Monro, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 31/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Monro, Inc. (MNRO) has a median fair value of $12.77 — within 6.6% of the current price of $13.67 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MNRO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MNRO valuation
  • Financial statements: Monro, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000876427) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MNRO as of ; valuations recomputed .

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