Darling Ingredients Inc. (DAR) Fair Value 2026

DAR · Packaged Foods ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (27/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Darling Ingredients Inc. (DAR) trades at $64.32, versus a $37.26 median fair value across its 11 active models — 42.1% below the current price. QOC: 7.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 27/100 (LOW). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $128.42.

Key Facts

Ticker
DAR
Price
$64.32
Quality Score
7.4/10
Value Trap Risk
27/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +99.7% upside with 65% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Darling Ingredients Inc. (DAR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Darling Ingredients Inc. (DAR) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $37.26, 42.1% below the current price of $64.32. Estimates range from $12.90 to $128.42. DAR scores 7.4/10 on fundamental quality and 27/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. DAR’s -42.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Packaged Foods sector median is -16.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Darling Ingredients Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give DAR?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($64.32)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $128.42 +99.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $26.18 -59.3%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $37.26 -42.1%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $45.06 -29.9%
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What Is DAR's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $12.90 to $128.42

CirclFi's 11 active models place Darling Ingredients Inc. (DAR) between $12.90 and $128.42 per share, a spread of 310% of the median. The median of that range — $37.26 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for DAR, against a current price of $64.32.

Low · Sentiment SOTPHigh · Bayesian DCF
$12.90median $37.26$128.42
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelSentiment SOTP$12.90
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$128.42
Model agreement1 bullish · 10 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for DAR. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on DAR, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Darling Ingredients Inc. (DAR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Darling Ingredients Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $37.26, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $64.32. With 10 out of 11 models flagging downside (-42.1% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: Bayesian DCF targets $128.42 (+99.7%), versus Sentiment SOTP at $12.90 (-79.9%). This +179.6% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About DAR?

11 of 13 models are currently active for DAR. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for DAR is $37.26 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $128.42 on its own, implying +99.7% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does DAR Rank in Packaged Foods?

Among 84 Packaged Foods stocks, DAR ranks #26 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.4 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Packaged Foods Stocks →

As a consumer-facing company, Darling Ingredients Inc. operates in a sector where e-commerce penetration rate is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating DAR should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is DAR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns DAR a score of 27/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Darling Ingredients Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Darling Ingredients Inc. is rated at 7.4/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +179.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every DAR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across DAR's 11 active models, average confidence is 48%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Darling Ingredients Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Packaged Foods Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Packaged Foods stocks with 13-model coverage

USNAUSANA Health Sciences, Inc.QOC 7.5INBPIntegrated BioPharma, Inc.QOC 7.4MICCThe Magnum Ice Cream Company N.V.QOC 7.5HLFHerbalife Ltd.QOC 7.3JBSJBS N.V.QOC 7.5CPBThe Campbell's CompanyQOC 7.3BYNDBeyond Meat, Inc.QOC 5.7ATPCAgape ATP CorporationQOC 4.8BABBBAB, Inc.QOC 8.6PPCPilgrim's Pride CorporationQOC 9.0JJSFJ&J Snack Foods Corp.QOC 8.9

Read investment analysis: USNA · INBP · MICC · HLF · JBS · CPB · BYND · ATPC · BABB · PPC · JJSF

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to DAR?

7 companies across all industries closest to DAR’s Quality of Company score of 7.4/10.

BSRRSierra BancorpQOC 7.4INGING Groep N.V.QOC 7.4HUIZHuize Holding LimitedQOC 7.4SLPSimulations Plus, Inc.QOC 7.4PUBMPubMatic, Inc.QOC 7.4CMTVCommunity BancorpQOC 7.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BSRR · ING · HUIZ · SLP · PUBM · CMTV · NVDA

Where Does DAR Sit in CirclFi's Packaged Foods Rankings?

DAR is ranked against every other Packaged Foods stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Packaged Foods stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Darling Ingredients Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Darling Ingredients Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Darling Ingredients Inc. (DAR)'s intrinsic value at $37.26 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $12.90 to $128.42. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $128.42 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is DAR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $64.32, 1 of 11 active models suggest DAR may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $37.26, 42.1% below the current price of $64.32 — a consensus view that DAR is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Darling Ingredients Inc.'s business model in Packaged Foods.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.4 mean for DAR?

Darling Ingredients Inc.'s QOC of 7.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on DAR?

CirclFi analyzes DAR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on DAR?

Of the 11 models currently active on DAR, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $128.42 per share, and Sentiment SOTP is the most bearish at $12.90. CirclFi's published fair value for DAR is the median of that range, $37.26, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 310% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is DAR a value trap in 2026?

Darling Ingredients Inc.'s Value Trap score is 27/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Darling Ingredients Inc. (DAR) has a median fair value of $37.26 — 42.1% below the current price of $64.32 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/DAR/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this DAR valuation
  • Financial statements: Darling Ingredients Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000916540) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for DAR as of ; valuations recomputed .

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