Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) Fair Value 2026

MUR · Oil & Gas E&P ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (39/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) trades at $35.95, versus a $32.51 median fair value across its 12 active models — 9.6% below the current price. QOC: 7.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 39/100 (LOW). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $152.48.

Key Facts

Ticker
MUR
Price
$35.95
Quality Score
7.5/10
Value Trap Risk
39/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +324.2% upside with 66% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Is Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $32.51, within 9.6% of the current price of $35.95. Estimates range from $13.46 to $202.56. MUR scores 7.5/10 on fundamental quality and 39/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. MUR’s -9.6% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas E&P sector median is -1.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Murphy Oil Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MUR?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($35.95)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $152.48 +324.2%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $43.03 +19.7%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $85.29 +137.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $26.76 -25.6%
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What Is MUR's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $13.46 to $202.56

CirclFi's 12 active models place Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) between $13.46 and $202.56 per share, a spread of 582% of the median. The median of that range — $32.51 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MUR, against a current price of $35.95.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · RCMH-DCF
$13.46median $32.51$202.56
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$13.46
Most bullish modelRCMH-DCF$202.56
Model agreement5 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MUR. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MUR, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Murphy Oil Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $32.51. Trading at $35.95, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -9.6%), as 7 of 12 models suggest limited further upside. Notably, RCMH-DCF sees the most upside at +463.4% (fair value: $202.56), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -62.6% ($13.46). The spread between these extremes — +526.0% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About MUR?

12 of 13 models are currently active for MUR. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MUR is $32.51 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $152.48 on its own, implying +324.2% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MUR Rank in Oil & Gas E&P?

Among 90 Oil & Gas E&P stocks, MUR ranks #39 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.5 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Oil & Gas E&P Stocks →

Murphy Oil Corporation's positioning within the Oil & Gas E&P segment means that capital efficiency ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including production growth trajectory — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is MUR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MUR a score of 39/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Murphy Oil Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Murphy Oil Corporation scores 7.5 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +526.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MUR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MUR's 12 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Murphy Oil Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas E&P Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Oil & Gas E&P stocks with 13-model coverage

CRGYCrescent Energy CompanyQOC 7.7VTSVitesse Energy, Inc.QOC 7.5RSRVThe Reserve Petroleum CompanyQOC 7.7ANNAAleAnna, Inc.QOC 7.5MNRMach Natural Resources LPQOC 7.7CRKComstock Resources, Inc.QOC 7.4EPEmpire Petroleum CorporationQOC 5.9SJTSan Juan Basin Royalty TrustQOC 3.6CKXCKX Lands, Inc.QOC 8.4TPLTexas Pacific Land CorporationQOC 9.1BSMBlack Stone Minerals, L.P.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: CRGY · VTS · RSRV · ANNA · MNR · CRK · EP · SJT · CKX · TPL · BSM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MUR?

7 companies across all industries closest to MUR’s Quality of Company score of 7.5/10.

DVADaVita Inc.QOC 7.5ARKOArko Corp.QOC 7.5TWINTwin Disc, IncorporatedQOC 7.5AMRCAmeresco, Inc.QOC 7.5FSBWFS Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.5ELPCCompanhia Paranaense de EnergiaQOC 7.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: DVA · ARKO · TWIN · AMRC · FSBW · ELPC · NVDA

Where Does MUR Sit in CirclFi's Oil & Gas E&P Rankings?

MUR is ranked against every other Oil & Gas E&P stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Oil & Gas E&P stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Murphy Oil Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Murphy Oil Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR)'s intrinsic value at $32.51 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $13.46 to $202.56. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $152.48 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MUR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $35.95, 5 of 12 active models suggest MUR may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $32.51, within 9.6% of the current price of $35.95 — a consensus view that MUR is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Murphy Oil Corporation's business model in Oil & Gas E&P.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.5 mean for MUR?

Murphy Oil Corporation's QOC of 7.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MUR?

CirclFi analyzes MUR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MUR?

Of the 12 models currently active on MUR, RCMH-DCF is the most bullish at $202.56 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $13.46. CirclFi's published fair value for MUR is the median of that range, $32.51, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 582% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MUR a value trap in 2026?

Murphy Oil Corporation's Value Trap score is 39/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) has a median fair value of $32.51 — within 9.6% of the current price of $35.95 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MUR/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MUR valuation
  • Financial statements: Murphy Oil Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000717423) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MUR as of ; valuations recomputed .

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