Navigator Holdings Ltd. (NVGS) Fair Value 2026

NVGS · Oil & Gas Midstream ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Navigator Holdings Ltd. (NVGS) trades at $21.96, versus a $23.82 median fair value across its 12 active models — 8.5% above the current price. QOC: 8.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $17.36.

Key Facts

Ticker
NVGS
Price
$21.96
Quality Score
8.4/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +185.6% upside with 59% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Is Navigator Holdings Ltd. (NVGS) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Navigator Holdings Ltd. (NVGS) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $23.82, within 8.5% of the current price of $21.96. Estimates range from $7.55 to $62.71. NVGS scores 8.4/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. NVGS’s +8.5% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas Midstream sector median is -9.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Navigator Holdings Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NVGS?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($21.96)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $17.36 -20.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $14.30 -34.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $24.39 +11.1%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $62.71 +185.6%
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What Is NVGS's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $7.55 to $62.71

CirclFi's 12 active models place Navigator Holdings Ltd. (NVGS) between $7.55 and $62.71 per share, a spread of 232% of the median. The median of that range — $23.82 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NVGS, against a current price of $21.96.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · First Chicago
$7.55median $23.82$62.71
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$7.55
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$62.71
Model agreement7 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for NVGS. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NVGS, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Navigator Holdings Ltd. (NVGS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on Navigator Holdings Ltd. at $21.96. With an estimated intrinsic value of $23.82 and 7 of 12 models pointing higher, the median implied return is +8.5%. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $62.71 (+185.6%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $7.55 (-65.6%). This +251.2% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Navigator Holdings Ltd.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About NVGS?

12 of 13 models are currently active for NVGS. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for NVGS is $23.82 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $17.36 on its own, implying -20.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NVGS Rank in Oil & Gas Midstream?

Among 53 Oil & Gas Midstream stocks, NVGS ranks #9 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.4 places NVGS in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Oil & Gas Midstream Stocks →

Navigator Holdings Ltd.'s positioning within the Oil & Gas Midstream segment means that breakeven oil price plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including commodity price environment — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is NVGS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NVGS a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Navigator Holdings Ltd.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Navigator Holdings Ltd. earns a quality score of 8.4/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +251.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NVGS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NVGS's 12 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Navigator Holdings Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas Midstream Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Oil & Gas Midstream stocks with 13-model coverage

TNKTeekay Tankers Ltd.QOC 8.4WMBThe Williams Companies, Inc.QOC 8.4TRMDTORM plcQOC 8.5LPGDorian LPG Ltd.QOC 8.3INSWInternational Seaways, Inc.QOC 8.5OKEONEOK, Inc.QOC 8.3ETEnergy Transfer LPQOC 7.9VNOMViper Energy, Inc.QOC 6.7WHKWhiteHawk Minerals Corp.QOC 3.9HESMHess Midstream LPQOC 9.2FLNGFLEX LNG Ltd.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: TNK · WMB · TRMD · LPG · INSW · OKE · ET · VNOM · WHK · HESM · FLNG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NVGS?

7 companies across all industries closest to NVGS’s Quality of Company score of 8.4/10.

SSRMSSR Mining Inc.QOC 8.4NEPHNephros, Inc.QOC 8.4VECOVeeco Instruments Inc.QOC 8.4MCBSMetroCity Bankshares, Inc.QOC 8.4GNEGenie Energy Ltd.QOC 8.4XPROExpro LtdQOC 8.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SSRM · NEPH · VECO · MCBS · GNE · XPRO · NVDA

Where Does NVGS Sit in CirclFi's Oil & Gas Midstream Rankings?

NVGS is ranked against every other Oil & Gas Midstream stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Oil & Gas Midstream stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Navigator Holdings Ltd.’s Valuation?

What is Navigator Holdings Ltd.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Navigator Holdings Ltd. (NVGS)'s intrinsic value at $23.82 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $7.55 to $62.71. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $17.36 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NVGS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $21.96, 7 of 12 active models suggest NVGS may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $23.82, within 8.5% of the current price of $21.96 — a consensus view that NVGS is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Navigator Holdings Ltd.'s business model in Oil & Gas Midstream.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.4 mean for NVGS?

Navigator Holdings Ltd.'s QOC of 8.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NVGS?

CirclFi analyzes NVGS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NVGS?

Of the 12 models currently active on NVGS, First Chicago is the most bullish at $62.71 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $7.55. CirclFi's published fair value for NVGS is the median of that range, $23.82, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 232% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NVGS a value trap in 2026?

Navigator Holdings Ltd.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Navigator Holdings Ltd. (NVGS) has a median fair value of $23.82 — within 8.5% of the current price of $21.96 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NVGS/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NVGS valuation
  • Financial statements: Navigator Holdings Ltd. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001581804) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NVGS as of ; valuations recomputed .

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