Navigator Holdings Ltd. (NVGS) Fair Value 2026

NVGS · Deep Sea Foreign Transportation of Freight ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Navigator Holdings Ltd. (NVGS) trades at $20.45, approximately 4% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $21.30. QOC: 8.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NVGS
Price
$20.45
Quality Score
8.4/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +205.9% upside with 56% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (13/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($20.45)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$21.30 +4.1%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$6.32 -69.1%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$22.03 +7.7%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$62.56 +205.9%

Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 9 additional models including EROIC Spread, Markov DDM, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 13 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is Navigator Holdings Ltd. (NVGS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Navigator Holdings Ltd.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite $23.97, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $20.45. While the average implied return is +17.2%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +275.0% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $62.56 (+205.9%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $6.32 (-69.1%). This +275.0% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Navigator Holdings Ltd.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About NVGS?

13 of 13 models are currently active for NVGS. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates NVGS's intrinsic value at $21.30, implying +4.1% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NVGS Rank in Deep Sea Foreign Transportation of Freight?

Among 44 Deep Sea Foreign Transportation of Freight stocks, NVGS ranks #14 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.4 places NVGS in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Deep Sea Foreign Transportation of Freight Stocks →

Navigator Holdings Ltd.'s positioning within the Deep Sea Foreign Transportation of Freight segment means that inventory days supply plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including electric vehicle transition — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is NVGS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NVGS a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Navigator Holdings Ltd.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Navigator Holdings Ltd. earns a quality score of 8.4/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +275.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NVGS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NVGS's 13 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Navigator Holdings Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Deep Sea Foreign Transportation of Freight Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Deep Sea Foreign Transportation of Freight stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: GSL · ECO · DHT · CMRE · NMM

See all Deep Sea Foreign Transportation of Freight stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Navigator Holdings Ltd.

What is Navigator Holdings Ltd.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Navigator Holdings Ltd. (NVGS) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $21.30. The Quality of Company score is 8.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NVGS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $20.45, 6 of 13 active models suggest NVGS may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Navigator Holdings Ltd.'s business model in Deep Sea Foreign Transportation of Freight.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.4 mean for NVGS?

Navigator Holdings Ltd.'s QOC of 8.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NVGS?

CirclFi analyzes NVGS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is NVGS a value trap in 2026?

Navigator Holdings Ltd.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 13 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on NVGS.

Unlock All 13 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access