Teekay Tankers Ltd. (TNK) Fair Value 2026

TNK · Water Transportation ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

10.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Teekay Tankers Ltd. (TNK) trades at $70.77, approximately 61% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $182.18. QOC: 10.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
TNK
Price
$70.77
Quality Score
10.0/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +157.4% upside with 54% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (13/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($70.77)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $182.18 +157.4%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $52.14 -26.3%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $117.94 +66.7%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
 $159.84 +125.9%

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What Is Teekay Tankers Ltd. (TNK) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on Teekay Tankers Ltd. at $70.77. With an estimated intrinsic value of $119.63 and 8 of 13 models pointing higher, the average implied return is +69.0%. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $253.30 (+257.9%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $27.57 (-61.0%). This +319.0% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Teekay Tankers Ltd.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About TNK?

13 of 13 models are currently active for TNK. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates TNK's intrinsic value at $182.18, implying +157.4% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TNK Rank in Water Transportation?

Among 23 Water Transportation stocks, TNK ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 10.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 10.0 places TNK in the top tier.

As a utility sector, Teekay Tankers Ltd. operates in a sector where customer growth rate is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating TNK should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is TNK a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TNK a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Teekay Tankers Ltd.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Teekay Tankers Ltd. is rated at 10.0/10. This elite-tier score ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +319.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TNK valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TNK's 13 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Teekay Tankers Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Water Transportation Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Water Transportation stocks with 13-model coverage

FLNGFLEX LNG Ltd.QOC 10.0KEXKirby CorporationQOC 9.1DLNGDynagas LNG Partners LPQOC 8.9NATNordic American Tankers LimitedQOC 8.7TDWTidewater Inc.QOC 8.6RCLRoyal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.QOC 8.4NCLHNorwegian Cruise Line Holdings QOC 8.2MATXMatson, Inc.QOC 8.1

Read investment analysis: FLNG · KEX · DLNG · NAT · TDW

Frequently Asked Questions About Teekay Tankers Ltd.

What is Teekay Tankers Ltd.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Teekay Tankers Ltd. (TNK) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $182.18. The Quality of Company score is 10.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TNK overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $70.77, 8 of 13 active models suggest TNK may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Teekay Tankers Ltd.'s business model in Water Transportation.

What does a Quality of Company score of 10.0 mean for TNK?

Teekay Tankers Ltd.'s QOC of 10.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TNK?

CirclFi analyzes TNK with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is TNK a value trap in 2026?

Teekay Tankers Ltd.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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